Saturday, September 14, 2019

Huh

So what is going on in Venezuela?

Venezuela is "ready" to defend itself, Foreign Minister Jorge Arreaza said Friday, after Washington invoked a regional defence pact that might justify such a move. ...

On Wednesday, the US invoked a regional defence pact with 10 other countries and Venezuela's opposition in response to "bellicose" moves by President Nicolas Maduro's regime.

Apparently, Venezuela has ordered the deployment of 150,000 troops to the border with Colombia. Which must mean other security and Maduro militias for the most part because the army is far smaller than that.

And it seems that our partners in the Inter-American Treaty of Reciprocal Assistance (TIAR) agreed with the request proposed by the Venezuelan opposition.

I doubt Colombia has volunteered to spearhead an invasion of Venezuela to remove Maduro.

And I'm sure Venezuela is incapable of fighting let alone invading Colombia. At this point Maduro's security forces are almost entirely incapable of fighting anybody but unarmed civilians.

But those Venezuelan security forces could seal off the border from humanitarian aid or movement of people (until the mechanisms for bribery kick in, of course).

What would Maduro do inside Venezuela behind such a shield?

And how does this fit with stories that Maduro is seriously talking about how to leave Venezuela?

Is this simply staged to put pressure on Maduro to get out? Is it timed to go along with the departure of Bolton, who Trump said restrained him in dealing with Maduro forcefully?  But if it fails, what then?

What is going on?