Ouchy:
Recent seizures and attacks aimed at oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz will raise insurance rates for shipping companies and, if unchecked, reduce tanker traffic in the vital waterway, according to energy experts.
Iran on Friday seized a British-flagged oil tanker and a second Liberian-flagged ship was briefly detained. The events occurred in a passageway that carries one-fifth of the world's crude exports.
"If this kind of problem continues, you might see people start to shy away from the (Persian) Gulf or try to reflag — not be a British tanker," said energy economist Michael Lynch.
So Iran could force insurance rates up. Ooh. Scary.
But Iran's actions that fall short of closing the Strait of Hormuz and actually hurting oil customers are making the case for protecting Gulf traffic just in case Iran escalates:
Some 100 envoys took part in the briefing by Brian Hook, who outlined the Trump administration's initiative for maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz.
Mr Hook said tensions had risen sharply and necessitated the need for a "coalition" of navies to protect their ships through the strait.
His words were underlined by the seizure of the British-flagged Stena Impero in the Gulf.
And worse for Iran, it seems clear that while Iran is willing to start to take Vienna it is unwilling to take Vienna:
As tensions in the Persian Gulf continued to ramp up on Friday afternoon amid news that Iran had seized a British oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, the head of the Defense Intelligence Agency, Army Lt. Gen. Robert Ashley, concluded that Iran does not want to start a war with the U.S. or its allies.
Iran is willing to inflict difficulties without inflicting real pain and risking war that could devastate Iran's economy.
How great is that for the envoys to know that Iran is unlikely to fight an international armada that will lower insurance rates and operating costs for their oil imports?
And that America is backing them in case Iran does get effectively aggressive?
Thanks Iran! You could have played pure victim or potential destroyer of the West. But instead Iran decided to inflict a small harm on the Coalition of the Skittish.
UPDATE: The British navy failed to prevent the latest Iranian seizure, and Europe remains stuck between action and fear:
The audio, released by maritime security risk firm Dryad Global, shows how the British navy was unable to prevent the ship's seizure by Iranian Revolutionary Guard forces on Friday. The seizure has prompted condemnation from the U.K. and its European allies as they continue to call for a de-escalation of tensions in the critical waterway.
A choice must be made.
UPDATE: Britain can hold as many emergency security sessions as it wants, but the Royal Navy is too small to protect British shipping in the Persian Gulf and Arabian Sea. Short of nuking Iran, British military options are limited without joining a coalition led by America to protect shipping.
UPDATE: Assuming even a shrunken British military is capable much longer of fighting anything other than "racist toxic masculinity." Sigh, the Thin Woke Line.
UPDATE: The choosing is starting to happen.
France:
France says it's working with its European partners on an observation mission to ensure maritime security in the Persian Gulf, where tensions have climbed with Iran's seizure last week of a U.K.-flagged oil tanker.
Britain:
Escalating against Iran, Britain's foreign secretary on Monday announced that Britain will establish "a European-led maritime protection mission to support safe passage" of tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
Still, both are just as the "starting to take Vienna" point.
UPDATE: More (via Instapundit with more information there):
The Trump administration's new Pentagon chief says he aims to ensure a U.S. naval presence in the Persian Gulf that would deter Iran from threatening to stop or seize any American commercial ship.
If the Europeans want their ships protected, they'll need to step up rather than count on America to do it alone while looking the other way while Europeans trade with Iran.
