Tuesday, May 16, 2017

The German Chicken and Egg Problem

Is Germany basically an entire leadership class with their figurative head stuck in the ground, refusing to fully perceive the dangerous world around them and their role in resisting that world?


One of the problems with German foreign policy today is that it is strategically frivolous. This frivolity is a stance of comfort and convenience. Germany prefers to leave the tough decisions and dirty work of foreign and defense policy to others, in order then to criticize its allies from a moral high horse in a tone of smugness and complacency.

The reason lies in Germany’s post-World War II culture. The partitioned country only slowly regained its sovereignty, while big strategic questions were often decided by others, primarily the war’s four Allied victors. And Germans learned to like the relative convenience of standing on the sidelines.

Do read it all.

This certainly fits with my frustration with Germany:

I keep reading that the Germans hate their militaristic past so much that they don't want to fight.

Let's try applying the clue bat to Germany's collective skull on this issue.

Conquering and setting up death camps under the shield of a powerful military? That's bad. By all means, don't do that.

Having a military capable of fighting death cult enemies or stopping the Russians from moving west? Well, that's a good thing. Try doing that.

But Techau's view raises a question. Does Germany's frivolous strategic view lead to Germany's poor defense preparedness because they see no need for a strong military (and I'm willing to settle for adequate at this point).

Or does poor defense preparedness lead to a frivolous strategic view because the Germans see no point to trying to implement real strategic vision without a military to back it?

During the Cold War, the Germans had a very good army that would have fought hard and well if the USSR had invaded Germany. Was it that the strategic threat was so obvious that even the Germans couldn't ignore the threat?

I have no doubt that Germany would rearm if the threat gets too obvious to ignore. But will Germany have the luxury of time to make up for their frivolity right now?

And will they continue to snipe at America ignorant of the reality that America--because of the realities of power that the Germans seem oblivious to--is the only power that could buy that time for Germany?

It would be tempting to tell the Germans to just screw themselves if they want to persist in their attitudes.

But remember, it has long been in America's vital national interests to prevent a single hostile power from controlling the economic, scientific, and military potential of Europe. We fought a kaiser and Hitler, and resisted a series of Soviet dictators to prevent that disaster (and we should resist both Putin and the EU proto-empire for the same reason).

So it isn't like we can afford to tell the Germans--and the rest of Europe--that you guys deserve what you get if you won't arm up.

If we had a free, advanced, and powerful China as the anchor of a friendly east Asia, a eclining Europe wouldn't be so vital in preventing America from being isolated in the Western Hemisphere. But 2 out of 3 in China isn't going to cut it. Maybe one day.

But right now we need Europe. Do you wonder why I want an American Army corps in Europe (preferably centered in Poland)?