It's long but worth it to consider how China will move forward:
It is perfectly possible, perhaps even likely, that China will become a high-income country one day. But the path ahead looks very bumpy. The huge imbalances built up in the past are becoming binding constraints today. Many countries have looked very impressive until they ceased to be—or, to recall once again Herb Stein’s immortal wisdom: “If something can’t go on forever, it won’t.” The next stage for China’s economy is a conundrum. Its resolution will shape the world.
And there is a bonus reference to the Lewis Turning Point, which I relied on in my amateur economics without realizing it had a term for it.
China could pass us by but their opportunity might be fleeting, I've written.
And if only parts of China make the transition to a modern high GDP-per-capita country, could "China" become a geographic rather than a political term?
And might China go to war to prevent that fragmentation from occurring and keep the Chinese Communist Party in control of all of China?
Why yes, my pucker factor is a little high, lately.
