Thursday, February 03, 2011

Mission Creep

We need to reassure the protesters that they've won. This is dangerous thinking:

Many dismissed the government concessions, which would have been stunning only a month ago, and said they wanted nothing less than Mubarak to go now.

"We have gone beyond these demands a long time ago," said Waheed Hamad, a 40-year-old schoolteacher among the protesters. "What we need is something bigger. And the road is still long." He said the attacks on protests would only make them grow. "Blood is the fuel of the revolution."

The protesters want much more after getting something. They think they are pursuing a broken enemy, but that is not the case. The stakes just haven't been high enough for the government to really risk a bloody crackdown. That calculation can change at any moment if the protesters don't accept a limited victory and prepare for a long political struggle to ensure a fair election in September (or August, I read).

Blood quenches the fires of revolt, too. Or turns the struggle into one between the forces most able to pay the currency of blood to win. Pro-democracy people will lose in that struggle.

I think our government has to make great efforts to reassure the protesters that American power and attention will be devoted to making sure that the limited gains made thus far at a relatively low cost in deaths will be exploited without further street violence.

I can understand that the protesters worry that they'll be screwed over if the process lasts months instead of getting the instant victory of seeing Mubarak board a plane for exile tomorrow. But this risks real bloodshed and defeat for the pro-democracy people regardless of whether the government holds or falls in that struggle.

UPDATE: Some protesters have had enough, even without reassurance of more change to come:

Anti-government protesters allege that some of those who attacked them in Tahrir Square were paid to do so. And some Egyptians are losing patience with the demonstrators, saying Mubarak's offer not to run for office again was a major concession.

"Enough," said Mamdouh Sweilam, a mechanic who has been out of work since the first day of the unrest. "Like them, I want to be able to live, to earn a decent salary. But this isn't living."

"The hope for democracy isn't going to put food on the table right now," he said.

How many people feel this way? How many would be happy with the success so far and tolerate the security forces clearing the streets of protesters?

Big protests are scheduled for tomorrow. Who shows up, what will they demand, and how will the army and police react?