The Oracle of the Potomac

The DOD's annual assessment of Chinese military power is finally out.

The portions on Taiwan--like the portions on the rest of the document--are very vague. I can only assume that the portion that are done under security classifications are much more useful, else there is no excuse for the report being so late.

It is particularly annoying that there is a lack of internal consistency. On page 6, the report judges that despite Taiwanese defense purchases, the "balance of forces continues, however, to shift in the mainland's favor."

Yet on page 49, the report implies the opposite, stating that Taiwanese defense efforts "have, on the whole, reinforced Taiwan's natural defensive advantages in the face of Beijing's continuous military build-up."

So what is it? Or is there no contradiction, with the DOD simply stating that Taiwan is taking efforts to strengthen defensive efforts that complement the defensive advantages of their geography, yet is still losing ground to China? If so, they should have written this more clearly.

I will say that I am encouraged that the report says Taiwan has "taken important steps to build" their war reserve stocks. But I won't be happy until the report says that Taiwan has actually "built" war reserve stocks. If it takes longer for us to reach Taiwan, Taiwan needs to rely on local ammunition and parts stockpiles for longer than they once assumed they needed until we could airlift supplies.

China has a long way to go to challenge us as a global power, but I didn't need a DOD report to tell me that. I'd rather see judgments on how Taiwan could respond to various Chinese military actions, including invasion. And I'd like to see judgments about what Taiwan needs to defend their island. I'd like to see this report applied to all of China's neighbors, actually. A blogger can dream, can't he?

Maybe it's just me, but I find the report increasingly useless. As I said, I hope the classified version is much better.

UPDATE: Well, the first news report about the report I read did not notice anything particularly newsworthy in the report. Although I can forget that such a report is useful for the vast majority of people who don't pay attention to the issue on a near-daily basis.

Although it did note the report was delayed 5 months amidst tensions with China. Given the nture of the information provided and considering that there is nothing in the report that the Chinese certainly shouldn't already know, why we'd bow to China by delaying it, as the story implies, is beyond me. That's a bigger story itself than anything in the report.

UPDATE: A Pentagon press conference on the report. Nothing really new about China in the report, so I didn't miss anything. And the DF-21 carrier killer has a way to go before the missile is operational. Spotting, tracking, aiming at, and hitting a maneuvering carrier through any defensive weapons is no small feat.

And Taiwan replies with a request for F-16s and submarines. Taiwan needs both. I hope we supply them. Were I the Taiwanese, I'd be lobbying the Russians hard for planes and subs, too, in case we think we can appease the Chinese by saying no.