Friday, August 20, 2010

South "China" Sea

The Chinese and America are lining up to contest the South China Sea, which China claims as a core national interest it will control exclusively:

US warships are currently staging their third set of exercises in less than a month off the coast of China, in a show of force that has prompted sharp criticism from Beijing and fears of prolonged maritime tensions in the region.
In addition, to exercises with South Korea and Vietnam, we are training with the Japanese near China:

Japan and the United States are planning a joint naval exercise in southwestern Japanese waters later this year near islets disputed with China and Taiwan, a media report said on Thursday

The war games in December, to be joined by the US Navy's Seventh Fleet, are based on a scenario involving Japan recapturing an unnamed remote southwestern island from an enemy, the Yomiuri Shimbun reported without citing sources.

Japan is to send fighters and patrol planes, as well as 250 paratroopers from cargo planes guarded by F-15 fighters in the drill in Oita prefecture, near Okinawan and other southern islands, the report said.

Chinese assertiveness over what we believe are traditionally international waters leads us to counter Chinese moves to incorporate the South China Sea into their territorial waters. Islands in the area that other countries bordering China claim in competition with China provide us with leverage to gain allies to counter Chinese claims over the area.

A rising China encounters resistance from many neighbors who don't like falling under the shadow of China's lengthening military reach. And that worry makes our friendship more valuable to them than in the past when China--or other countries--had little ability to project power even far across China's border.

So as long as we maintain a military able to support Asian nations worried about China, China's increased military power generates balancing power among China's neighbors who aren't happy to fall under the influence of China. That keeps the South China Sea a geographic term.

But should we fail to maintain a military capable of fighting in the Western Pacific and blocking China, China's power will eventually compel many of the more vulnerable locals to make deals with China to accept Chinese dominance.

And the remainder who don't want to cut deals will most certainly go nuclear to deter China.

But in either case should we pull back, the South China Sea will effectively become part of Chinese territory.