Obama's diplomacy has already offered the Islamic Republic eight months free of international pressures and new sanctions. The day Obama was sworn in as president, it was operating 3,000 centrifuges enriching uranium. By last week, that number had reached 7,500.
The breathing space has also enabled Tehran to embark on massive imports of gasoline to forestall moves to deprive Iran of some 40 percent of its daily needs. According to Ahmad Tavakkoli, a member of Iran's ersatz parliament, Tehran has tripled its gasoline imports, raising the strategic reserves from three months to six.
A year or two of talks with Obama would give Iran enough time to complete its huge program of building new refineries with help from China, India, Russia, Austria and Brazil. That would remove the regime's fear of facing gasoline shortages provoked by sanctions. Ahmadinejad claims that, by 2011, Iran will be a net exporter of refined petroleum products.
Iran also needs another year or two to achieve "surge capacity" -- that is, to have all the technical and industrial means to build a nuclear-weapons arsenal.
Taheri writes that the only question now is whether the Iranians pretend that they aren't winning or decide to rub our nose in our defeat over their nuclear programs.
I think the Iranian nutballs are needlessly wasting energy. Our Left will spin whatever Iran does as proof of the powers of smart diplomacy. I'm sure roger Cohen and Tom Friedman will be right on the case.
