Sunday, October 05, 2008

No Round Two

I remain puzzled why Russia thought it was the height of strategic brilliance to smash up Georgia's armed forces yet fail to drive on Tbilisi and actually finish off the Georgians and put in a friendly regime. With Western (and especially American) backing, the Georgian will be a stronger foe in the future.

Until that future arrives, I worried the Russians might restart the war as they realized they screwed up. Getting the Russians pushed out of Georgia proper (and I don't say this to recognize the Russian conquest of Abkhazia and South Ossetia as legal, I just recognize that Russia conquered what they already de facto owned) was a high priority to take away their jumping off point.

The Europeans are putting observers in place and the Russians are backing out of Georgia proper:

The EU-brokered agreement obliges Russia to pull its troops out of the zones by Friday, but Russia says it plans to keep thousands of troops inside Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Russia recognized the independence of both regions after the fighting, a moved denounced by Georgia and the West; only Nicaragua and the Hamas government in Gaza have followed suit with recognition so far.

On Sunday, troops lowered the flag at a Russian base in Nadarbazevi, about 30 miles northwest of the capital, Tbilisi. Georgian Interior Ministry spokesman Shota Utiashvili described the position as a communications center and said Russia had promised to fully leave it on Monday.

Utiashvili also said a checkpoint in Ali, in the zone around South Ossetia, was dismantled on Sunday and that Russian forces were leaving another position in Zugdidi, in the zone south of Abkhazia.

A spokesman for the European Union monitoring mission, speaking on customary condition of anonymity, confirmed that the Ali checkpoint was being taken down.


Putin screwed up. These moves decrease the chance that Russia will try to reverse their mistake.