Clearly I am not in charge of China. Or maybe Russia won the coin toss over who got to invade a breakaway province under cover of the Olympics. Heck, maybe Russia lost the coin toss and had to go first to establish the precedent and test the West just in case invading lost provinces is a bad idea.
But bottom line, there was no attack. And China is unlikely to invade Taiwan tomorrow, it seems. Does that mean that China is unlikely to invade Taiwan at some point in the near future?
Jonathan Pollock, a professor at the United States Naval War College, doesn't think China poses a threat to Taiwan:
He recently visited Taiwan, whose Government, elected this year, comprised realists who knew they had to try to find a means of dealing with China.
"They have to find a way to give China clear incentives to collaborate with them, hopefully in a transition to some longer-term accommodation, the terms of which they don't know yet," Professor Pollack said.
"As long as you have a Government in Taipei that is going to work hard to not provoke the Chinese, I would see the probability (of China using military force against Taiwan) diminishing, not increasing, even as China becomes much more capable militarily."
The Chinese have spent an awful long time saying they will reabsorb Taiwan. And China's military buildup surely provides China with a means to invade Taiwan that they did not have until recently. So saying China hasn't invaded Taiwan yet and so won't ever, misses the point that until recently China could not invade Taiwan. China should not get points for restraint when they were merely incapable.
And China's record is not quite as comforting when they can reach other nations. In the 1950s, China waged war in neighboring Korea. In the 1960s, China waged wars with neighboring Russia, India, and Vietnam (against us). In the 1970s, China waged war in neighboring Vietnam--against us and against Vietnam. In the 1980s the Chinese prepared to face the Soviet Union and helped us wage war against Moscow in Afghanistan. China hasn't been a serial invader, but China's record is hardly one Gandhi would be proud of.
And when Chinese amphibious and air capabilities increase to the point where nearby but offshore Taiwan is a "neighboring" country, look out. China may not have lots of targets to invade, but Taiwan is surely a target.
Of course, complacency about Chinese intentions toward Taiwan isn't universal:
For years China has been selling the argument that Taiwan is a provocateur. Beijing argued throughout the administration of independence-leaning Taiwan president Chen Shui-bian that "separatists" in Taipei had hijacked Chinese "compatriots" on the island who really want unification with the Chinese motherland. Remove the separatists, China's rhetoric went, and Taiwan will return to the motherland--allow them to govern, and China will one day have to attack.
The election of the more accommodationist President Ma Ying-jeou has somewhat stalled China's belligerence, but Taiwan is a democracy and the "separatists" will be voted back in one day. The Taiwanese public, moreover, is itself becoming more separatist--only a tiny and diminishing minority wants to unify with China. This fact may explain why, even after Ma's election, China has not halted its military build-up across the Strait: Over 1,000 ballistic missiles, 300 advanced fighters, dozens of submarines and destroyers are poised to wreak havoc on the small, isolated island. As China grows stronger it is no longer fanciful to imagine it pulling a Putin, trumping up any number of Taiwanese "provocations" as a pretext to attack.
The underlying tensions in the Taiwan Strait bear important similarities to those in the Caucasus. Just as authoritarian Russia objects to a democratic, pro-American Georgia, so too authoritarian China sees a democratic, pro-American Taiwan as a gaping wound on its periphery. The main cause of tensions is domestic politics. An authoritarian China, like authoritarian Russia, needs fervent nationalism to retain its shaky legitimacy. The "sacred goal" of reunifying the motherland serves that purpose well.
I say that increasing Chinese ability to invade Taiwan increases the probability of invasion.
And just what the heck does not provoking the Chinese mean when your very existence "provokes" the Chinese? Any so-called accommodation means absorption of Taiwan by China, as far as Peking is concerned. Kiss that democracy that Taiwan has built good bye.
Remember, Taiwanese realists know that successfully dealing with China means having a military capable of holding them off. Anything less is just hoping for the best.
