Even though I credited the Iraqi government with a victory in the early stages of Knights' Charge in Basra even as our press was rushing to claim a victory for Sadr, one thing I said I did not know is how the people would react with the Sadrists gone. It seemed like the people of Basra were happy to have the Sadrists gone, but I was not sure about the support Sadr had. Sadr City, too, was a mystery to me. Were the people there supporters of Sadr or merely intimidated into backing him?
This situation is becoming clearer, too. The Sadrists are boasting, as always, but the reality does not back their bravado:
"Even some Iraqi people who were not sympathizing with us before have now started to feel and identify with the oppression on the Sadr people. It has become clear to them that we are being targeted," said Liqa Yaseen, a parliament member representing the Sadr movement.
But interviews with dozens of Iraqis living in Sadr City and other Shiite militia strongholds in Baghdad suggest otherwise. So do anecdotes from U.S. troops who have met with Sadr City residents and local leaders and who say there has been a shift in the things they hear.
"After March 25 was the first time I had anyone tell us, 'Go in and wipe them out,' " said Sgt. Erik Olson, who spends most of his time visiting residents of Sadr City's Jamila neighborhood gathering "atmospherics," the military's word for figuring out what locals are thinking.
Iraqis tolerated the abuses of the Sadrists because they provided some calm, and some food and support. Which should be a lesson to the government. "Clear, hold, and build" strategies can't halt after "hold." Cement the allegiance of the locals with programs that allow the people to take care of their families.
The Sadrists are fading now. Assuming the government does not blow this opportunity to gain the loyalty of the people of Sadr City and Basra, the main question is how long Iran can prop up this failing movement in the face of government and American military power and the support of growing numbers of Shia Iraqis who neither need the Mahdi Army nor appreciate the foreign Iranian support for the struggling movement.
This will be another turning point in the war.
