Wednesday, May 28, 2008

Wu Hu?

The leader of China, President Hu Jintao, is meeting with the leader of the Taiwanese KMT party:

Hu and Kuomintang chairman Wu Poh-hsiung were due to hold afternoon talks at the Great Hall of the People, in what would be the highest-level encounter between Taiwan and China since the two sides split nearly 60 years ago.

"We hope that through our continuous mutual efforts, we can put aside our differences, work on our common interests and create a win-win situation," Wu said after he arrived in China on Monday leading a 16-member KMT delegation.


So is it time to shout "wu hu" in joyous relief?

When China considers Taiwan a wayward province and the only question as far as Peking is conceerned is how Taiwan will be absorbed by China, I'm not sure what the two have to discuss.

If I was cynical, I'd say this was a charm offensive to lull the Taiwanese into a stupor:

Surprise will be important. The Taiwanese military has problems but it is far from toothless. And US and Japanese naval and air power are capable of defeating the Chinese at sea and in the air. With tensions high over the obviously increased Chinese military capabilities and their long history of saying that Taiwan must be absorbed into China, a nice charm offensive will be in order to lull potential enemies. In late 2007, China could initiate or accept more cross-Strait talks on various issues. They might even—in the spirit of the Olympics—suggest talks on how to have the Taiwan athletes march in the opening ceremonies. Perhaps behind a symbolic contingent of all Chinese marching under the PRC flag, the remaining Chinese athletes will march in under flags of their home provinces, so the Taiwanese could march under the Taiwanese flag. Whatever the details, the point will be that the warm fuzzy of the Olympics will be used to create a false thaw after years of tension.


So excuse me if I don't shout for joy over this meeting. The Taiwanese need to watch their backs. The agenda of China is the same whether they are lobbing missiles over Taiwan or hosting a lovely conference.

If the Taiwanese falter just once, they can kiss their democracy goodbye.

UPDATE: Explain to me how this even makes sense:

China has invited Taiwan to hold more talks, state media said on Thursday, as ties between the two sometimes bitter diplomatic and political rivals warm following the election of a new, more pro-Chinese president on the island.


From China's point of view, you are anti-Chinese whether you want independence or just warmer relations under the status quo. From Peking's point of view, only agreeing to unification under Peking's control counts as being pro-Chinese.

Or has China abandoned its claim on Taiwan as part of one China without telling me?