Friday, May 09, 2008

Chasing Them Down

The Iraqis claim to have captured the top al Qaeda in Iraq commander:

Iraqi Defense Ministry Spokesman Mohammed al-Askari said the arrest of Abu Ayyub al-Masri — also known as Abu Hamza al-Muhajir — was reported by the Iraqi commander in Mosul, where insurgents have sought to establish a foothold after being widely uprooted from Baghdad and surrounding areas last year.


I was just wondering why I hadn't heard too much about Mosul lately. I guess we've been quietly hammering al Qaeda. For al-Masri to have been captured is a big deal if true. He would likely have lots of information on the organization with him that can be exploited.

Had we captured him, I'd guess the press release would have been issued in June or so.

This will certainly disrupt the enemy as they assume they are compromised by al-Masri's capture and relocate to avoid being targeted.

Back around the new year, I read that we expected to defeat al Qaeda in the Mosul region by June. Is this capture a sign that we've shattered the jihadis in Mosul so badly that they couldn't evade Iraqi troops to live to fight another day?

With al Qaeda in Iraq getting hammered, I have to wonder if there are any replacements willing or capable of stepping up into the top slot.

UPDATE: We deny that al-Masri is captured:

"Neither coalition forces nor Iraqi security forces detained or killed Abu Ayyub al-Masri. This guy had a similar name," said Maj. Peggy Kageleiry, a U.S. military spokeswoman in northern Iraq. She said no additional details were being immediately provided.


But then we would, wouldn't we?

Even if we haven't captured him, denying we captured him might even lead some al Qaeda to react based on the assumption that we do have him. Or maybe we gain information from a surge in communications by al-Masri telling subordinates he is alive and well, or subordinates frantically contacting al-Masri to find out if he is still ticking.