So India's latest missile test of a longer-ranged Agni III will present China with an Indian nuclear capability that must be countered regardless of whether or not the Chinese rulers believe India is preparing the ability to wipe out China:
India's current arsenal of missiles is largely intended for confronting archrival Pakistan. The Agni III, in contrast, is India's longest-range missile, designed to reach 1,900 miles — putting China's major cities well into range, as well as targets deep in the Middle East.
We were nervous with Soviet weapons that had to cross the North Pole to hit us. We had a whole 20 minutes to ponder our response if we detected launches.
Not that I blame India for wanting a nuclear deterrent against China, but given the short ranges involved that will shorten reaction time, I hope that India and China choose minimum deterrents that lower the pressure to launch on warning if they each even think the other is launching a nuclear strike.
Much like having too many capable armies jammed into too small an area in 1914 that led to the reality that "mobilization means war" lest an adversary gain an edge, will a future nuclear-armed Asia lead to the reality that preparations to launch missiles means war?
Nobody want nuclear war. But nobody wants to be disarmed and destroyed by a nuclear first strike, either.
UPDATE: The Chinese are indeed worried about the survibability of their nuclear arsenal:
Its arsenal, estimated at between 100 and 200 warheads, is the smallest of the big powers – the United States, Russia, Britain and France. The US is currently updating its missiles and warheads.
China now has a stated policy of never using nuclear weapons against a non-nuclear country and never as a "first strike". But Dr Gill said its static nuclear delivery system had left it vulnerable to a first strike.
The small size of the arsenal makes survivability critical. And China faces not only the possibility that stealthy American conventional weapons could take out many warheads but that Indian shorter-ranged nuclear missiles could do the same.
The big question for me is whether China starts cranking out warheads to make sure some would survive to retaliate. And if China does that, Russia has to worry. And Japan. And South Korea And Taiwan. All would have to worry about China deciding that a large arsenal means some can be pointed at them.
And Pakistan would react to India's ramping up.
Too many nuclear weapons crammed into too small an area should be cause for concern.
