Thursday, May 15, 2008

The Northern Front

Prime Minister Maliki is looking north:

"The Iraqi prime minister has arrived in Mosul to supervise the military operations, and its second phase is due to start today," Mohammed al-Askari, the spokesman of the Iraqi Defense Ministry, told The Associated Press. "The main aim of this operation is to purge and clean Ninevah province of all militants and their weapons and declare it a safe area."

Mosul is considered the last important urban staging ground for al-Qaida in Iraq after the terror group lost its strongholds in Baghdad and other areas during the U.S. troop buildup last year.

Al-Maliki has been promising a crackdown since January. But no major offensives have been mounted even as al-Qaida in Iraq tried to exert its influence through attacks and intimidation.


Operations up north have been ongoing all year so far. I have to wonder what the personal attention of the prime minister will mean. While one can make a big effort to hammer a militia-type organization that is trying to hold a city, a big effort against a terrorist organization that tries to hide in order to attack with terror attacks is not really possible.

Operations up north are slow and methodical and not kinetic like Knights' Charge.

So what does Maliki's presence signify?

UPDATE: This might be why:

Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has offered members of armed groups in Mosul an amnesty in exchange for surrendering their weapons.

He says the gunmen have 10 days starting Friday to hand over medium and heavy weapons and receive unspecified monetary compensation in return.

The statement also offers amnesty to those described as "duped" into taking up arms against the government as long as they were not involved in crimes against civilians and did not "have blood on their hands."


Operations like the Mosul mission require the government to move enemies into the neutral column, neutrals into the allies column, keep allies friendly, and thus minimize the number of hard core enemies that must be killed.

With al Qaeda in Iraq moving resources to Afghanistan in recognition of their ongoing retreat, a number of the al Qaeda members in the enemy column may be ripe for neutralizing. And Maliki's presence and personal offer may make the offer more credible. On the other side, the prospect of facing Iraqi forces supported by American forces in a major effort to move through Mosul will be an added push to accept the offer of surrender.