The exercises involve three U.S. carrier task forces (28 ships, 280 aircraft) and over 22,000 military personnel. Contingents from the United States Coast Guard, Air Force and Marine Corps are also involved. "Valiant Shield" is simply a new name for the annual naval exercises the United States has been holding for decades. But for the last two years, the "Valiant Shield" have been much larger than in the past. In fact, last years was the largest naval exercises since the 1960s. Such a large exercise would be of a similar scale to any attempt to help Taiwan defend against a Chinese invasion.
And the Chinese are watching. They know that to take Taiwan they must nullify our carriers:
China is also working on micro (under half a ton) satellites. If they can build an anti-satellite satellite weighing less than half a ton, they can launch several with one booster. That would give them a chance to knock down enough American satellites to temporarily "blind" the U.S. Navy. At that point, Chinese anti-ship missiles and submarines would be more potent against American carriers.
That's a big "if" of course. And even if the Chinese can blind our satellites, we'll still have aircraft to look for the enemy.
And even if the Chinese damage our carriers or scare them off, the proliferation of effective anti-ship missiles throughout our fleet means we are no longer reliant on our carriers for offensive power. Plus, aircraft based on Guam could be used to project power and interdict the Chinese navy by launching missiles and dropping mines. So while the Chinese might score a CNN victory by torching a carrier, the practical significance of that success might be pretty low. Our intervention could be just as deadly.
We each have our plans and we each test them out in exercises. My hope is that we can avoid testing whose plan is realistic and whose plan is a farce based on hopes and illusions.
