Sunday, July 03, 2005

Delusions of Grandeur

Just what are the Russians up to anyway? From my Janes email alerts, two little teasers:

1. Finland's relations with Russia are shaken but not greatly damaged after a spate of air space violations.

2. Evidence continues to mount of Russia's behind-the-scenes involvement in the domestic politics of states that once fell within the sphere of Soviet influence. JID's regional correspondent focuses on the Kremlin's overt and covert intelligence activities in the Czech Republic.

I truly don't understand why the Russians don't want to become part of the West. They seem to want to be important in their own right even if they have to be total bastards to do it. They need to get over their empire. It's gone. Moscow needs to worry about their own declining population from their abysmal health record so that large swaths of Russia won't become depopulated by the end of the century.

It may take the passing of the current generation that remembers when the world trembled when Moscow spoke and misses it so much that they are willing to arm China and betray the West to rattle the world in the process.

Russia belongs with the West. The rulers still have a Soviet mindset. They are quite delusional.

UPDATE: Via the Corner, this article on the collapse of the Russian military:

Russian generals have always relied on two strategic superfluities: lots of land and enough people to compensate for the poverty of their equipment, training and feeding. But Russia's rapidly shrinking population, combined with draft-dodging, is threatening the old calculus.

As the article noted, the current Russian military can basically surrender after being a killed a bit by an enemy or nuke them into oblivion (and pray the enemy doesn't then do the same). That's quite a choice.

But no, the Russian leadership would rather pretend they are just a superpower a little down on their luck for the moment. But if the Russians persist in their delusions, one day somebody will challenge Moscow's fantasy world and the Russians will have to make their choice.

Or the Russians can take their place with the West. That's a better choice for their long-term security than playing with fire thinking they can manage and manipulate the Chinese.