If the PRC is much less stable than we think it is. If the leadership sees itself getting ousted because the money to subsidize the great economic frauds of the SOEs [Note: state-owned enteprsies] is running out, it is a realistic possibility that they will take Taiwan for the money, cut loose the SOEs, and blame their resultant recession on the inevitable economic boycott that the rest of the world will impose on the PRC.
I can hardly disagree given that I wrote this piece (in the context of refuting the CCP idea that they are the modern-day Union to the Taiwanese Confederacy):
Taiwan is now the free part of China and the mainland is almost fully slave-inhabited with the slave-owning communist party on top of the heap, one would think that the Taiwanese should be cast in the role of Union liberator despite their miniscule size compared to the "secessionists" on the mainland.
Perhaps that is exactly what the Peking communists are worried about. After all, the old KMT captured all of China in the 1920s campaign called "the Northern Expedition."
China has multiple reasons for conquering Taiwan. And at any given point in time, one may stand out or prompt action at a particular time. Fear of the future is certainly a top contender to spark a war. TM notes a financial fear while I note a political rival fear. Either could motivate the Chinese and either could be right. As TM notes, calculations get messed up when they are not done rationally (or at least not as we would define rational). Fear messes up rational thought pretty effectively. General Sherman said "fear is the beginning of wisdom." Perhaps. But often, fear is the beginning of really stupid decisions.
TM also notes that the KMT on Taiwan and the CCP on the mainland share certain common viewpoints. I've also written that I worry about the KMT's commitment to defending Taiwan against a Chinese campaign to absorb the island:
It may seem counter-intuitive to worry about the KMT succumbing to the call of the homeland. They were the bitter enemy of the communists for over 80 years now. But the KMT officially believes in one China. They theoretically wanted to rule all of China since being defeated and fleeing to Taiwan over 50 years ago. I think the KMT can be vulnerable to pressure on the point of Chinese pride in what the communists have built. Might they not see developments on the mainland as acceptable? Get rich and be part of a rising Chinese civilization once again. The KMT was not in favor of democracy until the last 15(?) years or so. Pride in Chinese civilization runs deep. Commitment to democracy is still shallow for many of the older KMT leaders.
So TM Lutas' point is well taken on this as well.
An added point raised that I've also pondered is what we should do if Taiwan voluntarily joined China. That would be very bad. Bad like West Germany joining East Germany in the Cold War. West Germany was an asset that had to be kept out of Soviet hands. Likewise, we can hardly allow China to gain a platform to protect their mainland, project power into the western Pacific and the South China Sea, and interdict Japanese (and others') trade routes. Taiwan also represents a storehouse of modern technology and lots of cash to be looted and used against us.
We have a moral duty to help a free and democratic people keep the Chinese communists at bay. But letting communist China absorb Taiwan even if the Taiwanese want this would be a major strategic setback. That would be quite a dilemma for us.
Of course, if China became free and democratic, then the Taiwanese joining China wouldn't matter to us strategically and wouldn't compromise moral commitments. Win-win. Can we be that successful or lucky? We've dealt with a lot over the last century and won every time. I wouldn't assume we can't be that successful or lucky.
