Thursday, March 31, 2005

Out of the Red

While I've seen some supportive posts on my Chinese invasion of Taiwan opinions, most have dismissed my view as unsupportable. So it is nice to have Strategypage getting my 6. They think that an out of the blue attack is what China is aiming for. The scenario they sketch is broadly what I envision is the plan, though I want to go into more detail on what I expect. Just as important as the idea that China seeks to invade is the reason China wants an invasion over fast:

Taiwan has always expected assistance from the U.S. Navy and Air Force. But without advance warning to get a carrier or two into the area, and a few hundred U.S. Air Force planes alerted for movement to Taiwan, Japan and Guam, the American assistance would be too late. Thus, for Taiwan, an OOTB attack, which the Chinese appear to be preparing to carry out, is something to worry about.

If we can get our power into the fight, we are likely to be able to defeat the Chinese--perhaps decisively. But if the war is over before we react, a free Taiwan is history.