Ominously for Arab leaders, Syrian President Bashar Assad's quarrel with the United States about his country's military presence in Lebanon and cross-border infiltration into Iraq bears some resemblance to Saddam Hussein's prewar tussle with Washington.
Well, we have at least moved beyond some of the idiotic analysis prior to the Iraq War.
One: taking on Iraq will keep us so overstretched that nobody will fear us. But the article, even though it says we are too overstretched to invade Syria, also says:
With the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq two years ago still fresh in their minds, the Syria-Iraq analogy is a cause for serious concern among Arab rulers like Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah and Libya's Moammar Gadhafi.
Those leaders may fear it could be their turn to face American pressure for change if Damascus refuses to comply and the Syrian regime collapses under political pressure and the threat of U.S. military action.
Assad himself doesn't seem to think we are pinned down in Iraq:
Assad, 39, also is apparently worried about comparisons with Saddam. "Please send this message: I am not Saddam Hussein. I want to cooperate," he told Time magazine in an interview published this week.
That's a lot of fear of an overstretched America, if you ask me.
Second, any show of US power against dictators or pressure on those dictators will inspire a nationalistic defense of the local thug. Perhaps not:
A U.S. success in forcing Syria to withdraw from Lebanon would expand Washington's sphere of influence in the region — something with troubling implications for such leaders, also worried that any U.S. or Israeli airstrikes or other American show of power could fuel domestic opposition to their rule by militant Muslim groups or pro-democracy activists.
So pro-democracy advocates could rise up even if we or even the hated Israelis use force? That's a change in the ground rules, I'd say.
Third, the Iraq War destroyed our alliances and nobody will cooperate with us again. But what do we see over Lebanon?
Washington this time enjoys something it did not have when it invaded Iraq — support from Russia, France and Germany, all of which strongly opposed the Iraq war.
The Axis of Weasels are with us, so far. Very interesting. And even Egypt and Saudi Arabia want Syria out of Lebanon.
Syria may yet figure a way to ride out the storm even if they have to pull out of Lebanon. But at least some of the interesting myths that surrounded the Iraq War are being put to rest.
