President Bush 43 has taken a hit in the analysis of Trump's national security strategy by those who say that it rejects democracy promotion as a national objective. I hope not. It is key to ending the Long War against jihadis.
The promotion of democracy (and rule of law as the unstated but necessary partner) in the Arab Moslem world is not a fool's errand.
As I've long argued, the Arab Moslem world has long been stuck between the awful alternatives of autocracy (whether kingdoms or dictatorships) or Islamist rule.
Autocrats played the game of trying to promote "tame" Islamists to support the autocrat to draw away support for "wild" jihadis who sought to overthrow the autocrats.
The result was that the autocrats ruled or Islamists thrived as the only legitimate opposition. So when the autocrat fell, Islamists were the only alternative game in town.
Helping Iraq achieve democracy was a logical goal to show the potential of democracy with ample American support in a state in the heart of the Arab Islamic world in place of the Islamist-friendly Saddam who emerged in the 1990s.
And I was hopeful that the Arab Spring of 2011 was a sign that Arabs finally wanted an alternative to autocracy or Islamic dictatorship. They may not have fully understood democracy--and rule of law--but with our help we could assist them in understanding democracy as more than the tyranny of the majority.*
Yes, the Arab Spring largely failed. But it was a first in that democracy and not Islamism was seen by a significant minority as the alternative to autocracy. That impulse deserves America's support.
Remember, every Arab state (and Iran) has elections of some sort, whether rigged or not. Clearly the idea of democracy provides legitimacy rather than being an alien concept imposed on the Arab/Moslem world.
So rather than being a fool's errand, democracy promotion in the Arab world--which is the heart of the Sunni Moslem world--is key to providing a real alternative to autocracy or Islamist theocracy that has retarded development compared to the rest of the world.
Imagine what world we'd have if the Arab world had advanced at the same rate as post-colonial South Korea, which after the Korean War was in worse shape than the newly independent Arab world.
I dare say the Twin Towers would still stand.
Imagine what horrors await if the resentment and extremism that Islamist thinking represents continue for another 60 years. Will we really rely on autocrats to keep the lid on that problem better than autocrats did between World War II and 2001?
*Although the often unhinged "Resistance" to Trump here demonstrates that a lot of Americans don't understand the concept of rule of law and peaceful transfer of power, truth be told.
UPDATE: Eric at his Operation Iraqi Freedom FAQ blog has similar observations.