Wednesday, May 21, 2014

Fragmenting from Behind

Libya is under threat of fragmenting under threat of Islamist influence. I only bring this up because opponents of the Iraq War said our military presence in Iraq following the defeat of Saddam's regime prevented Iraqis from quietly working out their differences without jihadis flooding into Iraq. Our military is not in Libya, needless to say, after our regime change operation in 2011 led to Khadaffi's death.

This could get ugly:

A revolt by a renegade general against Islamists who dominate Libya's politics threatened to spiral into an outright battle for power that could fragment the North African nation as the country's numerous armed militias on Monday started to line up behind the rival camps.

Gen. Khalifa Hifter, who lived for years in exile in the United States during the rule of autocrat Moammar Gadhafi, touts himself as a nationalist who is waging a war against terrorism to save Libya from Islamic extremists. His loyalists and allies in the past days attacked Islamist militias in the eastern city of Benghazi and on Sunday stormed the Islamist-led parliament in Tripoli.

You can tell that the Libya War of 2011 had nothing to do with the war on terror because the war has empowered jihadis in Libya.

It is even possible that this development and threat of fragmentation is superior to letting Islamists run fiefdoms or even dominate the nominal national government. I'm just noting that without us there, Libyans haven't peacefully worked out their differences.

Given that Europe was on board the war in order to keep Libyan refugees from flooding southern Europe, I wonder what the Europeans think about this development. Do they expect us to lead from behind again?

UPDATE: Strategy page has more:

Hiftar was once a general in Kaddafi’s army, but disagreed with the dictatorship and fled to the United States in 1990 with the help of the CIA. When the Libyan revolution broke out in 2011 Hiftar returned to Libya and joined the rebels. ... Sometime in 2013 Hiftar apparently began planning a new revolution.

One motivation for Hiftar was the growing strength of Islamic terrorist groups. Islamic conservatives, radicals and terrorists were well enough organized to prevent the GNC (General National Congress) from creating a new government that controlled the entire country. ...

The U.S., and some other Western countries, have taken the position that Hiftar is not carrying out a coup but is merely trying to get a working democracy established. This is something the GNC has obviously failed at. If Hiftar does get new elections and does not seek dictatorial power for himself, he will continue to have foreign support.

Well that's interesting. Perhaps the CIA is leading the response to the chaos in Libya that allowed jihadis to kill four Americans, including two CIA security contractors who charged to the sound of the guns that night.