Wednesday, May 19, 2010

Between a ROK and a Hard Place

The South Koreans aren't willing to just let North Korea get away with murdering their sailors on the corvette that they sank:

A U.S. official says South Korea will lay out evidence later this week that Pyongyang sank one of the South's navy ships in March, killing 46 sailors.

The official says South Korea will offer proof that it was a North Korean torpedo that slammed into the ship, sinking it near the two countries' border. U.S. officials have assisted in the investigation.

And South Korea has our backing for further action from the sainted international community:
 
Seoul officials have said they will ask the United Nations Security Council to punish the North if it is found to have sunk the warship. It was unclear whether China, a veto-wielding member, would agree to this without firm proof of its ally's involvement.

The foreign ministry will brief diplomats from more than 30 countries Wednesday and "present them with scientific and objective evidence" that a North Korean torpedo sank the warship, Yonhap quoted an unidentified government official as saying.

All that is missing is a South Korean military retaliation at sea. South Korea is losing their fear of North Korean threats. The northern threat to Seoul is still real. But it isn't the last word on who is vulnerable to whom.

UPDATE: More on the developments. South Korea will have allied support. And China is reluctant to rein in their little psycho client regime. Let's see how collective defense by the sainted international community works in the face of a nutball regime and friends of the nutball who like having a loose cannon to give us headaches.

UPDATE: North Korea denies guilt and threatens all out war if they are punished for the sinking.

North Korea probably expected to just get away with the act of war. They have in the past. But times have changed. All-out war means that the North Korean regime--and possibly the country--will be destroyed.

Unfortunately, the threat to South Korea is a massive artillery barrage on Seoul. And South Korea can only protect Seoul by driving north into North Korea to establish a no-launch zone by pushing North Korean artillery out of range. And if South Korea gears up for that, North Korea could strike in desperation.

This will be very delicate. And very dangerous.

UPDATE: Thank you to Mad Minerva for the link.

A South Korean view on the delicate nature of the crisis. And more reasons that South Korea will have to consider mounting an attack into the area north of Seoul across the DMZ--a thousand potential hostages are located in the Gaeseong Industrial Complex just north of the DMZ.

Their presence serves as a massive human shield for any South Korean attempt to invade North Korea to carve out a no-launch zone to protect Seoul. Could South Korean paratroopers and special forces mount a rescue mission into the complex just ahead of a South Korean conventional attack? Or would it be a complex too far?

I wonder if the North Koreans placed the complex there for this purpose?