Occupied and administered by Iran since 1971 but claimed by the United Arab Emirates, the tiny Persian Gulf islands of Abu Musa, Greater Tunb and Lesser Tunb, occupy a vital position at the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz. The strait is one of the world's key strategic maritime choke points; it is just 54 km wide at its narrowest point, and 20 per cent of world crude oil shipments pass through it[.]
Saddam Hussein wanted to take thes islands as part of his 1980 invasion of Iran, in order to solidify Sunni Arab support for him against the Shia Persians. Saddam cancelled the mission and as he ran into difficulties, the Arab world never did really rally to Iraq's side as combatants against Iran. The Arab world quietly supporte Iraq, but Iraq bore the human and financial costs of the war.
Should there be a conflict with Iran, I'd think these islands would be a likely target of our Marines to help secure the sea lines of communication through the Gulf.
I wonder if an agreement to restore them to their Arab owners would help solidify active and open Gulf Arab support against Iran should it come to open US-Iran conflict?
The nations of the Gulf Cooperation Council are building up their naval and air forces:
Fostered by bilateral planning assistance from the United States via the Gulf Security Dialogue, GCC militaries are making rapid advances and may eclipse Iranian capabilities in the Gulf within ten years. By 2015, for instance, the combined forces of the UAE military will likely be able to prevent Iranian naval operations in UAE territorial waters and EEZs, seize and hold Iranian-held islands, and intercept some Iranian missile and air attacks on the UAE in the event of a conflict.
Whether the UAE or other GCC states have the intention or resolve to resist Iranian pressure is another matter, but building defensive capability is an important tool in fostering self-confidence in U.S. regional allies.
Wouldn't our offensive help speed up that timetable?
