South Korea's 650,000 forces are bolstered by 28,500 American troops in the country. The U.S. also has F-16 jets and A-10 attack aircraft in South Korea, while its F-16s in Japan could reach North Korea in an hour.
"I'm sure that the North Koreans know very well that they cannot win," said Yang Moo-jin, a professor at Seoul's University of North Korean Studies.
He and other analysts say it's more likely North Korea's recent missile and nuclear tests are aimed at mustering domestic support for ailing leader Kim Jong Il as he reportedly prepares to name his youngest son as his successor.
"North Korea has many internal problems now: Kim's uncertain health problem, the power succession matter and the country's economic trouble," Yang said. "Given all these, the North is not in a situation to start a war."
The first assumption is certainly true. I don't know about the second. And the third is not supported by history or North Korean logic.
Yes, barring major good luck on the North and major screw ups by the South, South Korea and our forces would almost assuredly defeat North Korea if it came to war.
But how do we know that North Korea's leadership knows this is true?
And the idea that internal difficulties will preclude Pyongyang from starting a war is wishful thinking.
Even if the North Koreans were 95% sure they'd lose a general war, if the North Korean leadership thought there was a 100% chance of a revolt within North Korea that would result in the North's communist elites being hunted down and killed like dogs, that 5% chance would look pretty good by comparison.
Or what if the North Koreans decided that just a limited war would suppress dissent and not risk defeat in a general war? What if that war then spun out of control?
I just don't like this speculation on what North Korea would rationally do under stress. Rational rulers wouldn't be content to run a gulag with a UN seat.
