One of the great advantages the Chinese have is time is always on their side. Why is time on China’s side? Because it’s growing so quickly, and with that big population, they can afford to play a waiting game. The historical trend for as far as the eye can see is toward growing Chinese strength. You remember what Deng Xiaoping was supposed to have said when Henry Kissinger asked whether he thought the French Revolution was a good thing: “It’s too early to say.” That to me is a very good insight into the Chinese mentality.
This mistakes extreme caution and secrecy for patience and far-sightedness.
This analysis doesn't seem to buy the party line on patience:
A leading social researcher, Yu Jianrong, recently analysed China's primary problem as a governance style based on "rigid stability". Instead of reacting in a "resilient" way, accepting risk and seeking to manage it creatively, the Chinese state was prone in a host of different areas to take the "rigid" option. This involves zero tolerance for risk, managing uncertainty by pushing it outside the borders.
Sheesh. Time is always on China's side? When dynasties have risen and fallen and the territory China ruled has waxed and waned over the centuries?
We shall see if the Chinese get rich before they get old, eh?
And when economic progress peters out, fissures within the Han majority will come out into the open:
The Han — split in seven or more linguistically and culturally distinct groups — are anything but homogenous. The major languages in China other than those in minority homelands include Mandarin, Hakka (spoken in several southern areas), Gan (Jiangxi province), Wu (Zhejiang province), Xiang (Hunan province), Yue (mostly Guangdong province), Pinghua (an offshoot of Yue), Southern Min (Hokkien/Taiwanese) and Northern Min.
Yet the CCP has used the myth of homogeneity to fan Han nationalism.
It isn't just the minorities in the western part of China that could break away. "China," far from overtaking America, could become a geographic rather than a political term just as "Europe" is today.
A lot of entities over the last 60 years have hoped to supplant us as the dominant power. None have succeeded. I wouldn't put a lot of money on China succeeding any time soon.
