Tuesday, July 17, 2007

The Borders Matter Again

Two years ago, I wrote that it was rather pointless to expend much effort on defending the Iraqi border since the enemy had plentiful money and weapons from within Iraq.

That has changed:


Another interesting development is that, despite there being over five million tons of munitions lying about after the 2003 invasion, most of it has apparently been destroyed or locked up. Saddam had lots of ammo left over from the 1980s war with Iran, and he never threw anything away, or used much of it for training. Coalition, and eventually Iraqi, EOD (Explosives Ordnance Disposal) troops have been finding, and blowing up, the stuff ever since 2003. But you rarely hear, or see, any of the spectacular explosions that the EOD people were setting off all the time in 2004 and 2005. As a result, many IEDs are now using fertilizer (ammonium nitrate) for explosives. This stuff works, and Iraq is a largely agricultural country, with lots of ammonium nitrate about. But fertilizer bombs are bulkier, and trickier to set off, than artillery shells or military grade explosives. Some bomb workshops have contained industrial grade explosives, either stolen from construction sites, or smuggled in. Lots of explosives, and bomb making gear, is still being smuggled in from Syria (more so than Iran, or any other neighboring countries.) A lot more of it is being found now, as U.S. and Iraqi forces clear out the Sunni Arab suburbs of Baghdad.

This is good. This means that efforts to control the border can now have an effect rather than being a waste of effort. More traditional forms of counter-insurgency are now possible with the enemy needing supply lines from outside the country. (And note that our success in Anbar is even more significant when you consider that the enemy supply line goes through territory far more friendly to us than to them.) We can work to cut off the weapons and strike the sources of the weapons across the borders.

Two years ago, such options would have been counter-productive. Now they can have an effect. As I've mentioned, timing is everything.