Sunday, April 29, 2007

A UN Success?

My Jane's email updates reports this (no link):

Lebanon's Hizbullah organisation is establishing a new line of defence just north of Lebanon's southern border district patrolled by the UN Interim Force In Lebanon (UNIFIL).The emphasis on a new front line and the lack of military activity in UNIFIL's area of operations further south suggests that the Iran-backed Hizbullah has chosen to abandon any attempt to resurrect its formidable defensive infrastructure along the border with Israel for the time being.

I may have been hasty in predicting the UN force in southern Lebanon would fail. The UN appears to have been more effective than I dreamed possible last summer. But after reading articles about how Hizbollah has resupplied in Lebanon I'll reserve full judgment on this issue. The Jane's post after all doesn't address the rocket supply--just the bunkers that Hizbollah had last summer.

Of course, even if true, this still means that Hizbollah is a threat to the Lebanese.

But the UN may have seriously eroded the capability of Iran to use southern Lebanon as a point to counter-attack if we finally go after the mullah regime. If there is another round of fighting this summer, Israeli improvements and decreased Hizbollah capabilities will make it easier for the Israelis to win.