Wednesday, March 23, 2005

End of the Decade

My Jane's email update offers this tidbit:

OPINION: Alarm bells ring as China builds up its armoury on a massive scale

Before the end of this decade, China will have achieved stunning military hardware advances that will have significant implications for Taiwan and the US - as well as neighbouring countries.

[Jane's Defence Weekly - first posted to - 11 March 2005]

But the spring of 2008 is nowhere near "the end of this decade," right?

Look, my guess about China invading Taiwan before the Olympics is admittedly speculation. Though there are reasons for my speculation, as I've noted. The important part of my point is that the Chinese are Hell bent on building the capability to invade Taiwan and will exercise that ability at some point.

Chinese actions and intentions are not the only factor in determining whether China will invade or whether China will succeed. Our decisions and Taiwan's decisions will affect the calculations.

Two decisions that have helped us is our pressure on Europe and their decision to keep their embargo on arms sales to China for at least another year. We need time to help Taiwan build defenses against an invasion. This European decision helps us buy that time.