I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I continue posting here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I occasionally post short data dump items on my Substack "Notes" section.
As we wait to see if Iran strikes Israel again and speculate about
Israel's next retaliation, can we talk about Iran's path to nuclear
missiles and whether we are too focused on the enrichment route?
North Korea embraces Russia: "The implications of a long-term alignment between Russia and North Korea extend far beyond the battlefield in Ukraine and may have long-term impacts on the stability of the Korean Peninsula and Asia-Pacific region." Is this alignment for resisting China?
Oh, BS: "'The entire Palestinian population in North Gaza is at imminent risk of dying from disease, famine and violence,' said the statement, published by the UN Inter-Agency Standing Committee." And if true, why doesn't Hamas surrender rather than continue to hide behind that doomed population?
I just noticed that Bing doesn't seem to save my generated images, unlike DALL-E 3 which still holds everything I made despite not being allowed to make new images in that platform. I can't find anything to change the "recent" images list to "all"! I hope I'm missing something.
Iran expands its aggression against Saudi Arabia: "The Islamic Resistance in the Land of the Two Holy Mosques, an Iranian-backed militia claiming to operate in Saudi Arabia, claimed its second attack since announcing its existence. "
Ukraine has converted a tank brigade (4 tank, 1 mechanized, and 2 rifle battalions) to a heavy mechanized brigade (2 tank, 2 mechanized, and 2 rifle battalions). America and Germany in World War II reduced the too-high tank-to-infantry ratio in their initial tank divisions as the war went on.
I expect little: "Japan and the European Union announced a security and defense
partnership on Friday as they seek to step up military ties, including
joint exercises and exchanges between their defense industries, amid
growing tensions with China, North Korea and Russia." The power to sign a deal is the EU goal.
I think our retired general and flag officers are outside their lane when they comment on politicians. I'd forbid officers from getting degrees in anything other than engineering and military history. Perhaps not literally, but directionally that should be the goal.
Ukraine's figurative Valley Forge looms. It's been a worry of mine.
I think European panic about America is all about claiming a crisis that the EU can exploit for its own power.
Bringing up "dormant NATO" again. So I'll repeat that I think it is a moronic idea.
Yeah, I doubt the North Koreans sent to Ukraine are a game changer. We'll see if they are only the first wave, I suppose. But they aren't "special forces." Up to 12,000 Russians will see their death or wounding delayed by twelve days with this contingent. And the North Koreans will kill some number of Ukrainians.
The Marines gave up their tanks. Are the Marines and Army ready to integrate Army tanks into Marine amphibious operations?
And now for something completely different:
Well, they sort of have a point: "A group of progressive House lawmakers is questioning the involvement of the U.S. military in the expanding conflict in the Middle East, arguing the deployment of American troops to Israel and other support violated constitutional law." But not really. It's complicated.
China pursues a blue water coast guard.
In case China escalates beyond its subliminal war: "The Philippine military opened two weeks of combat drills Monday that would include seizing an island in the disputed South China Sea and likely be frowned upon by China."
Stop obscuring it with a trendy term. Russia is waging war: "'Russia is conducting ... an intensifying campaign of hybrid attacks across our allied territories, interfering directly in our democracies, sabotaging industry and committing violence,' said [NATO chief] Rutte, speaking alongside Chancellor Olaf Scholz."
We've forgotten how to build weapons, it seems: "Like the Columbia-class submarines, Ford-class aircraft carriers and Constellation-class frigates, the new and improved Air Force bomber won’t reach initial operational capability until later than planned."
We will form a Naval Strategic Studies Group: "NSSG will be modelled on a similar group created in 1981 during the Cold War, which had a twofold mission to train future flag officers in strategic thinking and to conduct research on some of the department’s vexing strategic challenges."
OUT: Hybrid War! IN: Incremental War? I prefer to call age-old, sub-war aggression--or, in full-scale war, supporting measures that get obscured by the loud explosions--"subliminal war" so it doesn't seem like some new and novel form of warfare.
Well, Japan and Poland are both frontline states facing our common enemies: "Japan and Poland are set to gain access to the U.S. military’s Wideband Global Satcom (WGS) satellite network[.]"
A small but lengthy war in the Middle East is straining American Navy assets and munitions supplies.
Strategersky: "Russian leaders are dismayed that when Russia threatens the United States for one reason or another, the Americans ignore them. Russian leaders get the impression that the Americans don’t take them seriously. There are reasons for that and the most obvious one is the rampant corruption in Russia."
Oopsky: "Putin yearned for the pre-war times when he could portray the Russian military as a mighty force that was not crippled by corruption and incompetent and corrupt leadership." I did warn him.
Ouchsky: "China wants its stolen territories back and Putin fears that while Russia is busy in Ukraine the Chinese might make a move." Putin's plan looked like a sure thing!
South Korea has a serious fleet: "The South Korean Navy has 17 frigates, all of which entered service between 1992 and 2024. There are thirteen destroyers, three corvettes and 34 patrol boats. There are also 22 submarines and 21 amphibious warfare ships."
Did Israel restrain its attack on Iran after Iranian air defense systems locked on to its F-35s? I'm skeptical given that Israel apparently knocked out the air defense radars. But I'll certainly watch for stories. Also, the headline about a F-35 "shot down" by Iranian radar is BS unrelated to the story text.
Sh*t got real: "The Department of the Navy plans to operate three Ticonderoga-class (CG 47) cruisers beyond their expected service life[.]" This extends their service past 2027 which seems to be the assumed year of China's decision to wage war.
Good: "The Extra Large Unmanned Underwater Vehicle (XLUUV,) fittingly known as Orca, is a fifty-one-foot autonomous submarine that can carry out clandestine missions like minelaying." Naval mines are under-appreciated because they aren't sexy. But if deployed by a sexy underwater drone ... funding!!
"Linger": "The Philippines has approved the purchase of 40 fast patrol craft worth 25.8 billion pesos ($441 million), seeking to bolster maritime security as tensions with Beijing in the South China Sea linger."
Germany wants to create a larger reserve force: "Germany's Cabinet approved legislation introducing a new form of military service on Wednesday, according to government sources."
China unveiled its twin-engine J-35 stealth fighter that looks suspiciously like the Chinese stole everything about the F-35 except the "F". But is it really as stealthy as the F original?
What will Trump's foreign policy be? It should mean a stronger military and ability to sustain war in case China goes to war; help for Ukraine and Israel to defeat their enemies to deter future aggression; defeating Iran inside Iraq; killing jihadis; missile defense at home; and a strong role in NATO to sideline the EU.
European training for Ukrainian troops is being compressed to meet Ukraine's desperate need for trained troops. I'll ask if real training is being shortchanged or are peacetime skills being junked to get speed.
A very large Chinese jet-powered drone is "at least depicted as being fitted with a modular payload section designed to launch swarms of smaller uncrewed aerial systems." Once again we see how China can use its mainland territory to employ what America needs large amphibious warfare ships to use.
Blowback: "South Korea plans to test-fire a domestically made, short-range ballistic missile in response to the North recently launching an intercontinental ballistic missile, according to a South Korean news report."
It will be interesting to see how many Americans flee abroad to seek asylum in the ten weeks before Trump's inauguration.
Huh: "France and Germany emphasized the need to keep up military spending and for unity on European security, including with the U.K., following a meeting between the two countries’ defense ministers in response to Donald Trump’s victory[.]" Ah, another faux "crisis" for the European Union to exploit.
Russia tries to throttle Ukraine's grain exports.
Russia's Black Sea Fleet has remained in port since 2023: "What keeps these Russian Navy ships from going to sea is a very real threat of attack by Ukrainian USVs (Unmanned Surface Vehicles), also known as sea drones." Sort of. Russia has few reasons to risk its fleet since it stopped trying to take Odessa.
Is artillery obsolete? "But to answer the question as to drones being the new artillery, the answer is no – at least for now." As counter-measures develop, drones will get more expensive to cope with them. Drones will just be a useful part of combined arms warfare. And I address the poor-man's air force aspect raised.
Interesting: "What neither side is doing in this war so far is delivering smart drones via missiles to hunt in wolfpacks, attacking high payoff targets (HPTs) without human control or oversight. This is the next evolution in drone warfare." About that. The First-Robot View "drone"?
BOOM: "the Israeli and U.S. strikes are a stark reminder that the most effective deterrent is a proven ability to devastate, not simply disrupt, targets at will." Pretty much preaching to my choir.
We defended our cities from Soviet bombers. The need is greater: "intelligent machines are going to take warfare to a whole new level. Enemies will aim to draw blood at each other’s industrial, agricultural, and energy underbelly – the center of gravity for any nation." Our home is the foundation of power projection.
The protection horizon expands: "The US has awarded Elbit Systems a $127-million follow-on contract to supply Iron Fist Active Protection Systems (APS) for its Bradley infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs)."
To the Shores of the Houthi? There are limits to what can be done from the sea. Although the ability to destroy now goes beyond the range and power of smooth-bore cannons and mortars anchored offshore. Pity we knee-capped the Saudi campaign against the mostly peaceful Houthi.
Oh, Canada: "Canada, once a primary supporter of NATO, now finds itself marginalized within the alliance, contributing little in resources or capacity to the North Atlantic and North American defense." I have thoughts.
But is EABO the answer? "Chinese naval forces and fishing fleets have engaged in activities near Australia’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), raising concerns about sovereignty and resource security. Australia has recognized the need to expand its naval capabilities to deter [China.]" I have thoughts.
Advice to the Army to learn from the Houthi to attack ships. Hmmm. I worry the Army is spending so much time trying to be a land-based navy that it is neglecting how to wage large-scale conventional land war in INDOPACOM.
There is a report that North Korean soldiers sent to Russia to fight Ukraine have discovered Internet porn. And like it a lot. One more reason Kim Jong Un wants every one of them to die in Russia. The "Hermit Kingdom" can't risk letting North Koreans exposed to the outside world come home to infect his subjects.
History is not the threat to these two: "Japan’ s Defense Minister Gen Nakatani was welcomed aboard a South Korean warship during its port call near Tokyo on Wednesday, a first for a Japanese defense chief, as the two countries step up security ties against a backdrop of growing tension in the region."
American small drone development suffers from a peacetime development cycle that doesn't enable Ukraine's rapid wartime design adaptation. I assume one "problem" for America is that rather than being at war constantly using drones, we will stockpile them--which means they will be obsolete before needed.
The Biden administration plans to push appropriated aid for Ukraine out the door before the Trump administration is sworn in.
The idea that Trump can end the Winter War of 2022 in a day is a threat to Ukraine is wrong: "The Kremlin has batted off Donald Trump's view he can end the war in Ukraine within a day as an 'exaggeration.'" Trump could well respond by saying the only way to end the war is to help Ukraine win.
Retired generals (and admirals) deserve a voice? Well sure. But define "voice." On policies? Absolutely they deserve a voice like anyone else. Especially on defense matters. On politics? Absolutely not. That partisan voice reflects on nonpartisan active duty officers, unfairly or not.
I suspect this is part of China's two steps forward and one step back ratchet: "In late October 2024, India and China made a cautious but significant move to de-escalate their ongoing border dispute along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), their longstanding, loosely defined boundary."
Reputation is the first line of defense: "A caravan of thousands of migrants traveling through Mexico with the hope of reaching the U.S. had shrunk to about half its original size on Thursday as many migrants grapple with their prospects following former U.S. President Donald Trump's victory[.]"
Is China's "gray zone" military pressure on Taiwan backfiring? Or is China dulling Taiwanese reaction to military movements for an overt invasion?
European Union fanboys "complain" of the "end of Pax Americana" and ask if it is time for a European Union defense policy. Both are part of an EU wet dream to exploit anything to achieve longstanding objectives to eject America from Europe and remove the prefix from their proto-imperial project.
Reputation is the first line of defense: "Qatar has told the political leaders of the Hamas terror group that they were no longer welcome in the Gulf state, Israeli media reported on Friday. " Tip to Instapundit.
Traditionsky: "Russia [relies on muscles--not forklifts]. Clinging to archaic logistical practices means that supplies reach Russian troops more slowly, and often not at all, because of the shortage of trucks to move supplies the last fifty or hundred kilometers from the railroad to the front lines."
Ukraine is actually firing more artillery rounds than Russia now: "Russian forces in Ukraine have, over the last few months, been suffering ammunition shortages and increasingly unreliable railroad deliveries. Part of the reason for this was the August 2nd Ukrainian attack into Kursk province." Read the rest.
A pogrom in modern Europe: "rampaging mobs of Muslim men targeted Israeli attendees of a soccer match featuring the Maccabi team." To be fair, a lot of people living in Europe now never vowed "never again." They're more into the "once more, with feeling" camp. Tip to Instapundit.
Caving to Putin was always highly unlikely. This makes it impossible: "Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to be assuming that US President-elect Donald Trump will defer to the Kremlin's interests and preferences without the Kremlin offering any concessions or benefits in return."
North Korea sucks but endures under communism and sanctions. It makes money with troops that Russia dresses up as Russians: "The West knows that the North Korean soldiers are fighting for Russia, but the Russians would prefer to pretend otherwise."
Egypt remains powerful in its region: "Some things never change. Take Egypt and its continued domination of North Africa. For over 5,000 years, the Egyptian civilization has dominated North Africa." Can it extend its power to the Horn of Africa?
China pretends defining Scarborough Shoal is an internal matter: "China has published baselines for a contested shoal in the South China Sea it had seized from the Philippines, a move that's likely to increase tensions over overlapping territorial claims." China took control in 2012, defying international law.
Honestly, this seems like a late move to be able to condemn Trump for revoking permission: "The Biden administration has lifted a de facto ban on American military contractors deploying to Ukraine to help the country’s military maintain and repair US-provided weapons systems[.]"
A consequence of America visibly trying to leave Iraq: "An amendment to Iraq’s 1959 Personal Status law was officially proposed in the Iraqi parliament on Aug. 4. The draft law could theoretically make it legal for girls as young as nine years old to get married." Will it pass? Also, Yahoo AI offered me "context."
Hmmm: "Just before Tuesday’s presidential election, the Biden-Harris administration quietly waived mandatory terrorism sanctions on the embattled Palestinian government—even as it determined that the government's leaders are paying imprisoned terrorists and fomenting violence in breach of U.S. law." Ugh.
Happy birthday to the Marine Corps.
The Taliban "will participate in the 29th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29)" for the first time. No doubt the Taliban hope this more than makes up for the whole repressing women and girls thing when it comes to the attitude of the sainted international community.
