Well, yes (tip to Instapundit): "As precision long range conventional fires and the ISR that supports them become more common on even the most primitive battlefield, is it time for the USA and her allies to reconsider their own reliance on large, static, and 'noisy' command posts?" Every single one is a "missile magnet". The author in question discusses the issue here.
Military lithium-ion batteries.
I suspect the first Ukrainian counteroffensive of 2023 is going to be essentially a real world test of the new version of the U.S. Army's FM 3-0, Operations field manual. We've certainly been involved in helping Ukraine train for, formulate, and wargame potential plans.
Biden has some S & M fun with the press corps. Journalists like to be hurt by Democrats. Tip to Instapundit.
Several hundred American citizens evacuated in convoy to the Sudan coast where the Navy was waiting. Good. But I have no idea how many want to get out. How many are dual citizens who have a stake in fighting for the winner in the fighting?
Iranians don't like America in Iraq or the region. No doubt. And also. But don't forget. Iran is using the China deal with Saudi Arabia as a shield for continued aggression rather than a means to bring peace to the region.
Shooting down drones. So far no combat air patrol drones, as I advocated in Army magazine.
It seems clear that Iran cut a deal with Saudi Arabia in the hopes of isolating Israel: "Iran has increased its efforts to carry out attacks inside Israel." I doubt this will work. Because Iran won't stop threatening Arabs, too.
Interesting: "Putin’s regular command changes have led to an increasingly factionalized Russian military and disorganized command structures that are degrading the Russian military’s ability to conduct a cohesive campaign in Ukraine." Perhaps my worry that Putin will eventually find competent leaders is ill-founded. Or futile, given the structure and likely short tenure of even a good leader.
The fact that Russia has more troops in Ukraine now than when Russia invaded is not proof Russia is winning. Ukraine has more troops, too. And if memory serves me, Nazi Germany had more troops every year of World War II until 1945. Certainly when you lose a war you will lose troops. But troop strength alone is not a metric of winning or losing. It is a metric of effort.
Khaaaan! The Pakistani military will ultimately kill the man if all else fails. Not that I think Khan is necessarily good for America. But what is over there? Pakistan is so effed. Also, Pakistan has nukes. The effedness may be broader. Have a super sparkly day.
Hopping on the Pacific islands before we have to assault and capture them. Endorsed.
The Air Force will retire the 32 oldest F-22s. The end of the line is in sight. My endorsement of limiting production of the F-22 back in 2009 is seemingly vindicated. Although I started to worry that the rise of Chinese and Russian threats might have made it a bad decision, technology is advancing beyond the plane.
NSA and CIA spies are losing their edge. Our enemies surely know this. Isn't it good we know, too? I still wait for a Discord Leak from our military that actually harms America.
And now for something completely different:
Will the Chechens be the first to exploit Russia's defeat in Ukraine? Nothing is a sure thing. The Chechens might want to make their move while Russia is weakened and tied down in Ukraine. This is from the point of view of Chechens fighting for Ukraine. Chechens who have been subcontracted by Moscow to keep Chechnya under control--and who are fighting for Russia--may disagree.
A Chechen fighter on Ukraine's side from that article above: "When I hear French or German experts talking about how Russia must be saved and not be allowed to fall apart and how it can be rebuilt as a democratic state, I just shake my head." Yeah. If the West acts as the safety net for Russia's safety, Russia will take more risks than normal rather than save itself by leaving Ukraine.
Russia is striking Ukrainian cities again after a long lull. Ukraine's cities have absorbed a lot of missiles that otherwise could have been used against Ukrainian military targets. And failed to knock out Ukraine's electric grid. Is that distraction happening again as the Russians possibly believe Ukraine is running out of air defense missiles? I'll ask again if the Discord Leaks are disinformation. Or misinformation, I suppose, if Russia is drawing intended wrong conclusions from information technically correct.
American special forces trained (in the US) an interesting mission: "The training was part of the USASOC's annual capabilities exercise, or CAPEX, and the mission they were gaming out was an insertion into Taiwan to defend against a Chinese invasion." The first step to driving the PLA into the sea?
The Law of the Sea defines much of the Taiwan Strait as international waters, contrary to Chinese claims. China is part of UNCLOS. While America is not (and I don't want America in it), we define the term as the UNCLOS text does. And UNCLOS reflects customary international law, in any case, on this issue. The U.S. Navy--and not this or any international agreement--is what will prevent China from claiming those waters.
And the band played on. Tip to PJ Media. We're figuratively sailing through ice flows and America isn't unsinkable.
This article wonders where American leverage with Russia is if Ukraine's offensive fails. Our leverage is Ukrainian success. Let's focus on helping Ukraine succeed. Or recovering from a failure. In what alternate world could America get leverage with Russia if we let Ukraine lose the war? All we are then is a useful idiot as an arm of Russia's foreign ministry. FFS, it isn't brilliant to enable Russia to capture Ukraine with diplomacy rather than military might. I reject the "let the Wookie win" approach to diplomacy.
Some American conservatives have an annoying and self-defeating tendency to condemn any conservative who is not as fully conservative as those conservatives want (RINOs); while simultaneously praising any liberal who deviates a bit from liberal orthodoxy--yet is clearly far to the left of any so-called RINO. JFK, Jr. (D) (via Instapundit)--running against Biden for 2024--is currently illustrating the dictionary entry for this phenomenon. If conservatives want to win elections, conservatives have to focus their arguments and ire on the left to defeat their ideas and not on purging the right to create a more "pure" but smaller right that doesn't win the White House. Defeating leftist ideas will pull all people to the right. That is winning.
Contrary to the media obsession, African Americans are not primarily at risk from violence at the hands of white racists. Why go along with efforts that weaken law enforcement and encourage crime? Which harms Black people who are more likely to need police protection. Efforts to divide America weaken us internally and abroad. Tip to Instapundit.
Long ago I worried that America would not cancel a Medium Term Rule that doesn't see threats to America on the horizon. While I worried more about China, funny enough Russia's loud belligerence and aggression with its weaker level of threat alerted--and ultimately alarmed us to fix our deficiencies before China could exploit them.
Since December, Russia has lost 20,000 KIA and 80,000 other casualties. The Russian winter offensive certainly bled Russia's ground forces.
As is so often the case, we are being lectured on ethics by scoundrels.
Fighting between Russian army and Wagner troops isn't necessarily significant, even if true. As long as Russia stops the infighting and keeps them generally shooting at Ukrainians, it may just be embarrassing in an age when much is witnessed.
These unusual ships were perfectly appropriate for evacuations from Sudan. I did wonder what we used when there was no word that traditional amphibious ships were on the way.
Poland will buy British air defense missiles.
A Chinese navy frigate dangerously challenged two Filipino coast guard cutters inside Philippines' territorial waters in the South China Sea. The Philippines made sure there was publicity. Good.
Japan closed a gap by allowing their coast guard to be part of their self defense forces in wartime.
I haven't read much about this lately: "Popular protests against hijab restrictions and the worsening economy continue in many [Iranian] cities. This has been going on for nearly a year. When protests are suppressed or simply decline in one city they appear in another." And this, along with other developments, is interesting: "Now some of the governors are siding with the protesters."
Huh: "Greece is spending about $400 million on a unique Israeli combat system. The new system uses Orbiter 3 UAVs to seek out targets and automatically cause a Spike NLOS missile to be launched from an aircraft, ground vehicle or ship to hit the target. Israel developed this system over several decades and now it is widely used in the Israeli military as Fire Weaver." Options increase when sensor and shooter are separate.
Despite a new national defense strategy that focused on great power competition and despite the looming Russian invasion of Ukraine, 6 months before the invasion the U.S. was looking to cut 155mm artillery ammunition production. FFS, did our leaders read the strategy? Yeah, the God of War was not happy. I was not one of the analysts who believed gee whiz stuff made war inherently fast. That warning was before Russia invaded, citing one of my first publications.
Britain doesn't have economic problems because of Brexit. Britain has economic problems because it thinks it deserves decline. That long predated Brexit.
Recharging Europe's Franco-German engine. "Engine" isn't the right analogy.
Britain: "In a globalized world that makes it 'Global Britain' as much as it remains a part of Europe. For that is where its economy remains anchored and its most immediate security interests are defined." After Brexit Britain had a global trade focus. The EU's spiteful diplomacy post-Brexit made that seem the only alternative. But Russia's invasion of Ukraine has made Britain more aware of Europe and perhaps dulled the spite of the EU. And bad luck about the pandemic timing.
Perspectives on Eisenhower's military-industrial complex warning: "The “permanent armaments industry of vast proportions” worried the President for its potential to indefinitely divert national resources from butter to guns, but he never doubted the reality of the Communist threat and never suggested that the MIC would fabricate conflicts where its wares could be consumed in battle." Exactly. There was an imperative need.
America is not placing a bad bet on India because India is unlikely to spring to America's defense in a war with China. Really, I don't think we are that likely to spring to India's defense if China attacks India. But we each can hope for some help from the other. And we can each hope the other draws off critical amounts of Chinese power and prevents China from having enough to win against one out of worry of exposing themself to the other. India isn't a silver bullet solution to our China problem. And I don't expect that. But sure, our leaders shouldn't develop that expectation.
He, for one, welcomes his new insect overlords!
Dueling Chinese and American massed anti-ship attacks. Dueling walls?
I think this misses the point: "The U.S. Navy’s aircraft carrier force is losing relevance because of a lack of investment in the aircraft that it carries, a naval analyst said." But does the sophisticated F-35C really represent a "lack of investment"? Why waste money defending expensive carriers--which is what a better air wing to keep carriers farther from threats is--when it is more effective to spend the money elsewhere: "Certainly, it is true that network-centric warfare defenses can bring dispersed air defenses together to defend the carrier (if they have sufficiently long range) but why expend that effort? In a developed networked force, the aircraft carrier adds little that numerous smaller platforms cannot provide and only represents a potential loss of great propaganda value."
I agree with this: "'We need to have the frigate be a frigate, providing presence, convoy escort,' [Dr. Hendrix] said. 'Don’t ask every frigate to be a destroyer and don’t ask every destroyer to be a cruiser and a battleship — it’s what we’ve done in recent years. We need to look at that small-end, small-capacity, small surface combatants and drive more investment into whether it’s manned or unmanned, getting back out there to be able to operate in small, confined spaces but also build more platforms at a cheaper price.'" Pick a number, I say.
I believe there's a Chinese curse on this: Democrats getting what they wish for with illegal immigration. It's funny. Conditions changed for America. And now conditions change for Democrats with responsibility for dealing with the consequences of their limitless verbal compassion.
But other than those minor issues, it's great: "the Biden Administration is attempting to play with mortgages, in an effort reminiscent of the pre-2007 federal follies that gave us the housing crisis and the Great Recession. The rule violates the federal government’s constitutional powers; it violates the dictates of fairness; and it violates the most basic tenets of financial prudence. At best, it would punish those who have saved diligently and managed their money carefully." Remember, Democratic "equity" plans will just make us all equally poor. Mission accomplished! Via Instapundit.
On the path to using "functional MRI (fMRI), a newly developed brain-computer interface can read a person's thoughts and translate them into full sentences[.]"
Good: "The Defense Department is planning to install a 360-degree missile system on Guam to defend the strategic military waypoint in the Western Pacific against attacks, Guam’s acting governor said Tuesday."
Israel's campaign against Iran inside Syria hits Aleppo's airport.
This seems pointless and counter-productive: "The US Navy rarely reveals where its submarines are, but it is making those subs more visible in the North Atlantic, demonstrating their presence as US officials warn that Russian submarines are more active and carrying new weapons closer to US shores." What part of "silent service" is unclear?
How long before "Libya" just splits. I assume dividing oil revenue is the major issue.
China makes a hand-held rail run for crowd control.
Huh. My arguments for supporting Ukraine against Russia in this eight-year-old post sound pretty current, eh?
Interesting rumor that the U.S. deliberately bombed the Chinese embassy in Serbia in 1999 to destroy F-117 wreckage that China had swept up after the Serbs shot it down. But it seems contradictory to say that the Chinese used the wreckage to advance stealth technology and that an American B-2 blew the Hell out of the building to destroy the wreckage. I mean, how deep was the embassy to make the wreckage safe from that kind of strike to make both true?
It's a good question. And the author makes a reasonable effort it seems, that doesn't rely on projecting what we want a foe to learn. But I don't think we have any idea about what North Korea has learned from Russia's invasion of Ukraine. And until the war is over, any lessons are possibly premature. I mean, if Russia is allowed to keep a good chunk of their conquests, North Korea might learn that if it can grab part of temptingly close Seoul, it can keep it.
Democrats don't want anybody to have police or personal protection. Why should their view of protecting the Supreme Court justices be any different? But nobody in the media will talk about inciting murder, will they? Tip to Instapundit.
After reports speculating that Western states may have blown up the Nordstream Baltic Sea pipelines last year, another report suggesting Russia could have done it. I'll stick with it being an accident for now.
The U.S. is sending 1,500 troops to the southern border to help with missions "such as ground-based detection and monitoring, data entry, and warehouse support, until CBP can address these needs through contracted support. Military personnel will not directly participate in law enforcement activities."
Uh huh: "The European Union announced fresh plans to ramp up the large-scale production of ammunition, seeking to both benefit Ukraine while the country is at war with Russia and to improve the bloc’s geopolitical credentials." Solving the problem is secondary to getting the power--and thus those precious credentials--to solve the problem. So I disregard any analysis that is based on this supposed EU objective: "Keep Russia down, the United States in, and authoritarian China out." Most Europeans may want that. But the EU is not about letting the peasants decide such momentous decisions. As for Macron? To be fair, I have a bad view of the EU. With reason, I believe.
Tiny drones explode near a Kremlin complex dome (Russian video included). Naturally, Russia claimed America is behind this alleged attempt to kill Putin. I suspect the Russians faked it. But I guess I can't rule out that it was a Ukrainian "Doolittle Raid". But is sure wasn't an assassination attempt. And now for something completely different:
I'm calling BS on this solution: "At present, Ukraine may lack the military capability to retake Crimea, but Kyiv might still achieve some of its key objectives by blockading it. New technology may ease this task." Ah, magical and dreamy technology. Worse, Crimea isn't a military base. Lots of civilians there. Even if Ukraine can blockade Crimea, how long will it be before Putin is staging fake "dead babies parades" to get exceptions to the blockade. If Ukraine can't take it, by all means bombard the Kerch Strait bridge and Russian bases. But blockade should not be Plan A.
For all the talk of China's brilliant diplomacy to end Iran-Saudi hostility, is China going to police this threat to the region? "Iran's paramilitary Revolutionary Guard seized a Panamanian-flagged oil tanker in the strategic Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, the second such capture by Tehran in under a week amid heightened tensions over its nuclear program."
Huh: "An explosive device derailed a Russian freight train in a region bordering Ukraine for a second straight day Tuesday ahead of an expected counteroffensive by Kyiv."
What? The Village People didn't do enough damage to the Navy's reputation? If only the Navy could turn back time to a good recruiting video:
A lot more ammunition for Ukraine, among other useful things to help an offensive. Note that the mortar ammunition is for battalion-, company-, and platoon-level mortars.
Taiwan would like U.S. help to develop its own next fighter jet.
The nine newly equipped Ukrainian brigades and the tanks they have. Note that as I've noted all along, Ukraine will live or die on the Soviet models and not the flashy small core of modern Western tanks.
Throwing elbows: "A Russian surface-to-air missile came close to striking an American MQ-9 Reaper drone over Syria in November, passing and detonating within 40 feet and damaging the aircraft, according to new details disclosed by a U.S. official to Air & Space Forces Magazine."
Turkey's new drone and helicopter carrier: "A presidential adviser said the ship’s main missions will include overseas military and humanitarian operations like those Turkey executed in Libya and Somalia in recent years." Arabs seem less welcoming of the original quasi-imperial purpose.
This will be the second year in a row that the Army won't meet its recruiting goal. Huh:
Well let's hope we get lemonade out of this: "The head of U.S. Fleet Forces Command operates a fleet smaller than the Navy planned, due to delays in ship and submarine construction and maintenance."
China displays a new self-propelled mortar. Are the Chinese just taunting the Russians with stuff they'll never get from China? Interestingly enough it has an anti-tank round for direct fire.
The U.S. provided M21 anti-tank mines plus mine-clearing equipment to Ukraine.
Can mere votes eject Sultan Erdogan?
An east coast MEU will sail with different weapons and capabilities.
Eating cake? That certainly is outrageous. The staffer should have been munching popcorn. Tip to Instapundit.
I have never liked teacher unions. It has been clear that their order of priority is union, union teachers, then children. But their callous behavior toward children during the pandemic made me hate them with a white hot passion. So, yeah:
Thoughts on the Kremlin drone attack: "There’s plenty of room for disagreement on the Right over the
Russo-Ukraine War. Regular readers here know that I don’t have much use
for Ukraine’s corrupt government. But I’m even less a fan of aggressive
war and actions that look increasingly like genocide. So keep Ukraine
armed as long as they’re willing to fight." Exactly. It is in our interest to stop Russia. Even if Democrats are oddly on board stopping Russia.
Trying to fine tune the outcome of the Winter War of 2022 is a terrible idea. Exactly. It didn't work in Syria and it won't work in Ukraine.
New Zealand has resumed exercises for its purported military.
Lithuania plans to stock up on ammunition over the next decade. I'm assuming this is intended more for arriving NATO forces to use than for the small Lithuanian military.
Nigeria has added A-29 light attack planes to its arsenal to fight jihadis.
The Russians launched more drone strikes against Ukraine's cities. These are happening a lot lately. Is Russia trying to deplete Ukrainian air defenses after Discord Leak? If so, Ukraine doesn't need its big missiles to shoot down drones.
Russia inflicted massive damage at a Pavlohrad chemical plant where Ukraine had old land mines and old ballistic missile engines and related materiel stored. It sounds like a major loss for production of rockets and missiles. It was certainly a legitimate target.
Biden's national security advisor is going to Saudi Arabia: "Sullivan's planned visit is the latest sign of warming relations between the kingdom and the Biden administration that have been strained by Biden’s criticism of Saudi Arabia's human rights record and oil policies." Message received.
How to steal in a dirt-poor country.
Israel says Iran has enough uranium--if further enriched--for 5 nuclear warheads.
Why aren't our diplomats sticking with promoting the basics of our Constitutional freedoms and working with America on national security objectives? "The woke Left has now weaponized the country’s diplomatic missions abroad to advance highly partisan and controversial agendas that can offend their hosts, and do not represent the majority of American voters at home."
Thanks, I guess: "The German Navy will deploy a frigate and a combat support ship to the Indo-Pacific in 2024[.]" But I'd rather have a German army able to overrun Kaliningrad if Russia invades NATO.
The Discord Leaks: damaging, embarrassing, or deliberate? "Upon parsing the data carefully, it becomes apparent that the primary knowledge gleaned from this leak is obvious — that countries spy on each other, even among allies and partners. Moreover, as already noted, much of the so-called classified information was already available in the public domain." Exactly. I still haven't seen anything reported that wasn't obvious or known. My biggest question is whether the CIA did this without DOD's knowledge to generate genuine DOD outrage and worry to bolster the effects of the leaks.
American intelligence: "If Russia does not initiate a mandatory mobilization and secure substantial third-party ammunition supplies beyond existing deliveries, from Iran and others, it will be increasingly challenging for them to sustain even modest offensive operations[.]" Can Russia defend what it has without those steps? Because after the heavy casualties in a mere special military operation, will Russians accept being told they are now in a war with no end in sight to death and impoverishment? I don't assume Russia can't mobilize more men. But without China, can Russia equip or supply them?
The high stakes of Ukraine's pending counteroffensive, likely the first of several rather than the "big push" to win the elusive modern decisive Napoleonic battle. High stakes, indeed. I hope that Russia's battered army will crack when heavily attacked. But I don't assume my hope reflects reality. I'll be satisfied if the first counteroffensive inflicts more destruction of the Russian ground forces and makes a collapse more likely as Ukraine continues to pile on pressure. But I don't worry about speculation informing Russia of Ukraine's plans. Every expert or commentator has their pet theory. I certainly do. I think it is all just noise to obscure what real nuggets of information are out there.
The belle of the ball: Arab League members prepare to welcome Syria back into the organization. And also, Iran and Syria pledge closer ties.
The Naval War College. Batting .333 is a really bad record for a service academy. Tip to Instapundit. Do read it all. We have massive numbers of colleges eager to do the kind of work that Naval War College conference covered and only a handful of service academies to prepare for war. The Navy sure is focused like a laser on its real problems, eh?
Woke lips sink ships.
I suspect the Kremlin drone strike was a Russian "false flag" attack. Although why Russia would want to advertise air defense weakness is beyond me. But if the Ukrainians want to strike Moscow as a lesson of their reach, following the example of the Chinese Doolittle Raid to drop pamphlets to let their enemy know what atrocities their own military is inflicting on Ukraine would be a good idea:
I haven't heard about 18 Ukrainian brigades being prepared for the counteroffensive lately. Now I read about 12 maneuver brigades more frequently. Early on I read about three Ukrainian corps of six brigades each being formed. I wondered if that number included support brigades. Later I read those were all maneuver brigades. Now I wonder if it is four maneuver brigades in each corps with an artillery and a support brigade of miscellaneous assets adding up to six total brigades each. So only 12 maneuver brigades as the core of the counteroffensive?
A kill for Patriot missiles? "Ukraine has intercepted a Russian hypersonic missile for the first time, it has been reported."
Oh? "China's aircraft carriers play 'theatrical' role but pose little threat yet[.]" I think there is one threat they pose right now.
Do Russian and Ukrainian cultures make a Doolittle Raid pointless? I find it hard to believe that showing daring or feeling exposed are uniquely absent from their cultures. By all means, don't mirror image. But they are humans. And the Doolittle Raid did motivate the Japanese to fight harder. Still, I hadn't considered that pro-war nationalists might do something to push Putin to "take off the gloves." Tip to Instapundit.
Pretending to look for foreigners under every bed but finding only Americans. Via Instapundit.
Ukraine said Russia used white phosphorous to bombard Bakhmut. My memory is that they are legal to use for hasty smoke screens because they make a faster but smaller screen. But illegal to strike enemy personnel because of the horrible burns.
Iran's latest wonder weapon--an anti-tank missile that sucks right out of the box. Soon to be seen in Russian service?
Using F-35s to shoot down ICBMs in their boost phase. This is old news, as I recounted in this post. But still good.
Safe to recognize reality: "The World Health Organization said Friday that COVID-19 no longer qualifies as a global emergency, marking a symbolic end to the devastating coronavirus pandemic that triggered once-unthinkable lockdowns, upended economies and killed millions of people worldwide." Is it still deadly to some people? Yes. Like lots of other viruses and ailments. This is a doctor-patient issue now.
Tension between Wagner private military forces and Russia's regular military. Putin would rather have his military divided and feuding with each other than united against him.
Rallying America's allies in the Pacific. Herding the cats requires credible American power.
Great Britain has a king, Charles III. Hey, I have no use for royalty, whether by blood or celebrity status. But if our British ally is happy with this, I am too. Best of luck. As for (tip to Instapundit) being upset our president didn't attend to the coronation? Hey, you Europeans were all giddy when Biden said "America's back." As if we left. And now, with our president turning away, you certainly got America's back.
There are no silver bullets in war: "CNN reported that Russian electronic warfare (EW) jamming has limited the effectiveness of Ukrainian HIMARS strikes in recent months." Also, define "limited." You can never tell when misinformation is being used to lull an enemy.
The over-snow vehicle used by Britain, Germany, and Sweden.
My local grocery store weekly ad shows Bud and Bud Light cases being sold with a $10 mail-in rebate offer.
Why are the worries higher now? "The head of the United Nations' nuclear watchdog is expressing growing anxiety about the safety of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, after the governor of the Russia-occupied area ordered the evacuation of a town where most plant staff live amid ongoing attacks in the area." Russia wants the worry. Is it real or their lower-tier nuclear threat?
Fingers crossed: "Representatives from Sudan's warring armies have arrived in Saudi Arabia for their first face-to-face negotiations."
We've seen how the new public AIs lean heavily left. There's a conservative AI now. Tip to Instapundit.
