Russia's invasion of Ukraine reminds the European Union that it needs NATO Britain to defend Europe despite EU anger over Brexit.
Until Russia resumed its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the EU saved its wrath for Britain that dared to leave the proto-imperial EU. But Britain has demonstrated that however much Britain's military has declined along with the continent's Western military forces, Britain is a needed ally in NATO:
All these initiatives together mean that the UK remains the biggest European defence donor to Ukraine, with assistance totalling some £2.3 billion in the 2022/23 fiscal year, and another £2.3 billion in prospect for 2023/24.
These efforts have paid dividends for the UK's efforts to repair its relationship with its European neighbours after Brexit.
The French are showing that while they may have the best military in political Europe (the EU), they don't have the best military in geographic Europe.
Despite Britain's decision to expand its horizons to the world when once it had been locked into the EU's orbit, Britain can't ignore Europe:
All powerful political concepts combine resonating messages with ambiguous content. This has certainly been true of both ‘Global Britain’ and the ‘Indo-Pacific Tilt’. It remains to be seen to what extent either concept survives the refresh of the Integrated Review, due to be published in March. What is clear is that the UK military faces new pressures to meet NATO requirements. As a result, even strong advocates of the Tilt are emphasising that it was never intended to be a recipe for a large-scale shift of military effort to East Asia.
That's nice to say Britain didn't intend to ignore Europe. But Britain's limited military power was definitely being refocused away from central Europe. The Nordic region and Asia/Pacific loomed larger in British plans. Until now.
Britain's Integrated Refresh Review has been adjusted for war in Europe:
The most obvious change is one of tone, abandoning the “Global Britain” marketing hyperbole found in the original 2021 Integrated Review.
Global Britain made sense at the time. Britain needed to have a more global view. Especially to rebuff the EU's desire to punish Britain for Brexit. Do that and the EU would have incentive to establish economic ties with Britain without the political ties. But now adjustments to the new defense reality are required.
But as that initial article correctly notes, a full review of British defense capabilities has to wait until the end of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Right now, Britain is taking some risks with its own defense capabilities--rightly so--because it considers Ukraine Britain's first line of defense in Europe.
The conclusion of the Winter War of 2022 will inform what Britain's military will look like. And the end of the war may adjust how the European Union values NATO Britain even if it is not EU Britain.
If America is concerned about the Atlantic being its first line of defense, you can only imagine how Britain worries about the English Channel--complete with a tunnel, now--being its first line of defense.
And that may be a path to end the EU's Spite War against Britain.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
