The Winter War of 2022 Gets Stomped By Reality?

Western analysts did not appreciate Ukrainian strengths and Russian weaknesses. But will Russia demonstrate that quantity with just enough quality is sufficient to win the Winter War of 2022?

The Russians have morale and logistics problems. But Ukraine has to attack them seriously to exploit that. The war is mostly stalemated with Ukraine still having the edge in initiative. Russia attacks on the Donetsk front, grinding forward very slowly but with high losses. Ukraine has the initiative southeast of Kharkov and on the Kherson front, but I don't see much in the way of breaking the Russians or taking territory. I worry that Ukraine can't afford to let this stalemate drag on without risking defeat. 

I knew Russia's military couldn't just push Ukraine over:

Russian troops could probably plow their way to the Dnieper River line. But how many dead Russians can Putin endure to do that?

I think the scope of a large invasion from Kiev to the Black Sea is too much for Russia to sustain for long. Putting 100 battalion tactical groups into an invasion must surely hollow out every combat brigade across all of Russia. Those BTGs are a means of scraping something out of less-than-adequate brigades. And I suspect a large fraction of those 100 aren't very good given the state of the Russian army. How many ill-trained conscripts were needed to fill out that number of units?

Here's a good explanation of Russia's situation against Ukraine. How long does Russia think it can afford to fight in Ukraine against surviving Ukrainian army units on the other side of the Dnieper River? With insurgents and irregulars tormenting second-rate Russian occupying troops? With Ukraine getting and using longer range missiles to bombard Russia's bases in Crimea? Without tempting Russia's enemies around their long border to take advantage in some way? Without breaking Russian logistics? Without crippling Russia's economy? Without inspiring public resistance to excessive Russian casualties?

Will the body bags going back to Russia stop when Russia declares victory?

So I had that going for me. But part of this critique of Western analysts failing to understand Russia's military weakness and Ukrainian strengths (do read it all) falls on me, too: 

Many in the West mistakenly thought Ukraine was just like Russia, but weaker, more corrupt, and chaotic. In fact, while Ukraine is by no means perfect, it is more agile and decentralized, compared to the autocratic and rigid Russian state.

I worried a lot that corruption would prove fatal to Ukraine in the long run given its smaller size compared to corrupt Russia. I didn't appreciate fully the the centralized autocratic versus democratic decentralization angle that seems to have made the difference (enabled by robust Western support, of course). 

Of course, my assessment might still be right because Putin didn't wait for the long run and instead chose to go big right now militarily. And without Western support, Ukraine might have done about as well as I anticipated--if Russia hadn't initially tried to stage military parades into Ukraine instead of leading with massive firepower. Which decimated the Russian army and alerted Ukraine, making it harder for Russia when it switched to firepower.

Hell, if Ukraine can't press its hard-won advantage in the next few months to compel Russia to retreat from Ukraine, I don't rule out that Russia might eventually mobilize enough to achieve what I projected in that pre-war assessment. 

Remember that I chose my term for the war because I worried that the template might be the Winter War of 1939-1940, when Finland initially humbled the Soviet military but in the end was ground down by the Soviets who regrouped and battered Finland down with firepower and troops, albeit while enduring heavy Soviet casualties. 

I worry that even if Russia can't fix their problems during this war that they will in the future. So this question is timely: Can Russia learn from its evident shortcomings inside Ukraine (and presumably after losing the war in its entirety)? 

Should the Russian military learn from its mistakes, it would be a fatal error for the West to miss this transformation and assume we are engaging the same enemy they’ve faced off against for the last 80 years. However unlikely, transformation is possible, and we must be vigilant to watch for it.

Heartily endorsed. 

But I digress--if only in time frame.

Russia is taking far longer than three months to repeat that 1940 Soviet win. And a far weaker Russia may not be able to do so if the West remains united behind arming and sustaining Ukraine. And can Russia sustain its effort that may look to resume offensive operations after the spring 2023 mud dries up which coincides with the completion of an initial training cycle of the current conscription class? 

Yet there is a real chance Russia's ground forces will break under the strain before then, and suffer the fate of the Italian 10th Army that invaded British-owned Egypt in 1940. Despite apparent Russian worries that they can't hold Kherson city, the Russians apparently changed their mind about pulling troops from the west bank of the Dnieper River in Kherson province. They seem to have put their best troops on that front (according to the Ukrainians). Does this give Ukraine the opportunity to drop all the bridges and sink all the ferries along the river while striking south from Zaporizhzhya to Melitipol with the main effort, potentially bagging Russia's best troops defending Kherson? But I'm speculating. And to be honest, hoping.

The longer the war goes on the more chance Russia has to repeat that ugly 1940 victory over Finland by stomping on smaller Ukraine, no matter how clumsy Russia looks doing so and even if it takes a few years. Or is that optimistic? As I've noted, the war has gone on for more than 8 months. Has Russia created new units in this time?

If so, where are they? Might the Russians sent to Belarus be the vanguard of that force that will strike western Ukraine or make another attempt to take Kiev? Or have the Russians had to use their spring conscripts to replace losses? And are the Russians in Belarus just there training or a "payment" to Belarus to make up for Belarus weapons sent to Russia to replace losses?

I just don't see enough information to ease my nagging worry. I'm mostly sure I'm worried for nothing.

Mostly.

Have a super sparkly day.

UPDATE: Ukraine's apparent aerial and surface drone attack on Russia's Crimea naval base. Results are unclear. A lot is unclear given Russia used the attack as excuse to end grain export deal.

UPDATE: The Russians appear to be preparing to pull back forces from the west bank of the Dnieper River on the Kherson front. 

What is going on? First the withdrawal seems on. Then it seemed Putin reversed the order. Now the retreat is on again? Is there indecision on what to do?

Is Russia simply trying to keep the Ukrainians guessing to shield the withdrawal by making Ukrainian pursuit cautious?

Or could Russia be planning to hold a bridgehead at Kherson city only? This would preserve a bridgehead to one day resume an advance on Odessa while allowing other Russians to defend the river line closer to more secure supply sources.

UPDATE (Tuesday): Russia's food blockade is challenged:

Ships loaded with grain departed Ukraine on Tuesday despite Russia suspending its participation in a U.N.-brokered deal that ensures safe wartime passage of critical food supplies meant for parts of the world struggling with hunger.

Will Russia dare try to sink the food ships? 

UPDATE: Russia won't have to challenge the ships. The United Nations preemptively retreated:

The United Nations called a halt to grain ships moving through Ukraine’s crop-export corridor in the Black Sea after Russia warned that vessels weren’t safe using the route.

Sadly predictable, I suppose. [LATER: Russia rejoined the food export deal. But we'll see what they do when if formally expires.]

UPDATE: ISW looks at Ukrainian partisans:

Effective Ukrainian partisan attacks are forcing the Kremlin to divert resources away from frontline operations to help secure rear areas, degrading Russia’s ability to defend against ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensives, let alone conduct their own offensive operations. Poor Russian operational security has enabled Ukrainian partisan attacks.

How much of that activity is from special forces and irregular infiltrators?

UPDATE (Friday): There are conflicting signals about whether Russia will withdraw from Kherson city or fight west of the Dnieper River. ISW says that watching the airborne units west of the river is probably the key sign. If they stay, Russia fights. If they pull out, Russia is abandoning the west bank.

Still, I wonder if the outcome will be a compromise between Russians who want to bug out and those who want to stay. What if Russia holds a defensive line around the city of Kherson only? This would allow the Russians to maintain a bridgehead on the west side of the Dnieper River to one day resume the offensive to Odessa? Russia could withdraw from the rest of the west bank so they'll have a river line to defend plus a city--which the Ukrainians have shown can be defended.

UPDATE: Russia is losing its war with Ukraine. And can't find a solution. 

But despite all the media talk of Ukraine's counter-offensive there is little to show for it since two large chunk gains in Kharkov province and then Kherson province. And neither of those seemed to capture a lot of Russians to make the victories strategically significant on the battlefield. 

Will Ukraine launch a big offensive this year? Can they? Size doesn't guarantee a Russian victory. Russia's army could crack. But if Ukraine can't hit the Russians hard to shatter that morale, Russia could yet exploit its size to regain the advantage. At a high cost. But a battlefield win of some sort, nonetheless.

UPDATE: Hmmm: 

Ukrainian forces can retake the strategic southern city of Kherson from Russian troops, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said on Thursday, in what would be a major defeat for Russia in its invasion of its neighbor.

Yes, it would be a major defeat. But "can" is not "will." Can Ukraine retake Melitopol?

UPDATE: Conflicting Russian signals might be as simple as trying to make Ukraine too cautious to pursue a withdrawing Russian army and allow the Russians to get across to the east bank safely.

UPDATE: New American aid package, including money to refurbish stored U.S. Hawk air defense missiles and to refurbish 45 Czech T-72Bs for Ukraine. And 40 river patrol boats. I assume they come in handy on that really wide lake-like stretch of the Dnieper River that is the front line in the south. Is the money for refurbishing M1117 armored cars for additional vehicles or to fix up vehicles Ukraine already has? [UPDATE: From DOD press conference, for new M117s.]

UPDATE (Saturday): I'd noticed that Russia seems more active on the Donbas front. ISW writes that the Russians are likely to use their mobilized reservists to renew their offensive on the Donetsk sector. But they are unlikely to gain "operationally significant" ground. 

In addition, ISW thinks Russia is preparing a fighting withdrawal to evacuate the west bank of the Dnieper River in Kherson province.

UPDATE: I've heard rumors:

The United Kingdom Ministry of Defense (MoD) reported on November 4 that Russian forces in Ukraine probably have started deploying “barrier troops” and “blocking units”, units that threaten to shoot their own retreating personnel to compel offensives.

But is Russia using these barrier troops to shoot rather than round up deserters?

UPDATE: I almost wondered if all those armored riverine patrol boats we are providing could be used for building drone attack vessels as Ukraine used to attack Sevastopol. A recent DOD press conference had a question and answer that might have implied that is the case. But that just could be me looking to confirm my vague suspicion.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here.

Weekend Data Dump

Is Russia's faux NATO, the Collective Security Treaty Organization of former Soviet states, going to shrink further as a result of Putin's invasion of Ukraine? Will Turkey and China compete for the Central Asian countries seeking security partners?

The Crimea bridge bombing: "This attack involved a special bomb weighing several tons carried by a truck crossing the bridge. It was a suicide mission for the driver and the explosives went off short of where they were intended to detonate for maximum damage." Huh. I didn't think a suicide bombing was likely. That disturbs me.

The Russian ground forces' most problematic recruits.

Iran might be considered a combatant for sending weapons and personnel to help with the weapons to help Putin in his invasion? I don't get it. This is what Western countries are doing for Ukraine. Is the key factor that Putin invaded Ukraine while Western countries are helping repel an invasion? Is it that Iran is breaking sanctions on Russia?

The South Korean navy and North Korean coastal artillery fired warning shots along the disputed western sea border. North Korea seemingly provoked the warning shots by sending a merchant ship across the line.

Reach out and touch someone: "American B-1B Lancer bombers have returned to Guam for another training stint in the Indo-Pacific."

The Marines are sticking with the new Amphibious Combat Vehicle despite 4 capsizing on their sides in the "surf zone over the last year. That really needs to be fixed. Luckily no deaths so far.

Sure, the Marines should focus on amphibious warfare and direct support of the Navy. But I'm not sure how giving up tanks and most artillery helps with the amphibious mission unless the Marines will pass off anything more than 10 miles inland to the Army.

NATO's Mediterranean front: "As such, it can serve as a source of stability for Europe or as a site of disruption for actors like Russia that seek to threaten that stability." I've noted this issue. But I have zero worry about the Russian navy there.

Oh? "A former Russian diplomat has warned that President Vladimir Putin will sacrifice 10 to 20 million Russian soldiers to win the war in Ukraine." I don't think Russians are willing.

I have to say I don't get overly concerned up about drag queen erotic shows for children. I don't think it is appropriate at all for any type of adult to do that in front of children. But in a country this large, I doubt there are that many events, really. And if these shows were prohibited, I imagine those parents willing to take their children to such a show will manage to ef them up in many other ways.

Congratulations new British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.

LOL! "Can you believe Halloween is in just one week? It’s fun and all, but back in the old days, it was called Samhain and involved drunken orgies and human sacrifice. The kids these days have lost all respect for tradition."

The beatings will continue until war performance improves.

Hiding our defeat with medals for technical proficiency.  It was a record-setting retreat, you know.

Reinforcements heading to Europe. Not a lot. But it's growth.

Big deal. Isn't that what fast food restaurants already do?

A quick guide to new Prime Minister Sunak. Let's just hope Biden doesn't mistake him for a 7-Eleven manager when they meet.

I can't remember the last time I heard of a higher ranking Russian officer getting killed at the front. I assume this means the senior officers no longer risk trying to provide needed direction to combat units rather than Russia fixing its lower rank leadership problems. This could mean some Russian units are rather brittle, no?

Why are a number of USO facilities suddenly closing their doors?

Europe faces the winter without Russian energy. I worry the only thing that emerges from the winter stronger is the European Union's powers.

The Abrams tank lives on.

Putin orders his military-industrial complex not to suck as much.

Will the United States send old but updated HAWK air defense missiles still in storage?  I had no idea we still had any in storage.

Venezuela applies to upgrade its Axis of El Vil status to full Axis of Evil membership.

I don't think modern Democratic Party politicians care about the middle class and poor. When the Democrats speak of programs to help those groups, it's never just cuts in taxes or direct payments. It's always programs in a bureaucracy, which require hiring gender studies majors. Who vote for Democrats because that's who supports their jobs and gives them job security. The programs are really just the means to pay for Democratic Party voters and campaign contributors.

Cambridge University teaches a "woke" gender-free version of the German language. That's fun. Now do Arabic.

Don't let Democrats tell you that only conservatives are wary about backing Ukraine's fight against Russia's invasion. "Released by staff without vetting" = "Told the truth about how we feel."

Science! Tip to Instapundit.

Democrats--including Biden--say our freedoms and very democracy are at risk if Republicans win the election. But they'd never rig an election! Nope! No way. Not even to "save" democracy. You crazy nutters!

NASAMS air defense system getting closer to Ukraine. 

More good jihadis: "The U.S. conducted an airstrike in Somalia on Sunday against al-Shabab, killing two, U.S. Africa Command said Tuesday."

The Marines discuss logistics with the Norwegians.

Climate mission accomplished! "‘$3.8 Trillion of Investment in Renewables Moved Fossil Fuels from 82% to 81% of Overall Energy Consumption’ in 10 Years[.]" Thank God it isn't a real emergency. Because we proved we can't fix it now. Tip to Instapundit.

Is Somalia stable? Global pandemic and economic problems. And war in Europe. But Somalia has hope??

Don't fly. Don't shoot. What do you do?

I do remain kind of stunned that Antifa and BLM stopped rioting nationwide after 2020. Marxists don't like (most) Democrats and BLM hardly thinks Biden ended so-called institutional racism. But I guess those groups really were only the street thugs of the Democratic Party.

I feel sorry for John Fetterman because of his clear stroke damage. I pray he can recover. But he should not serve in public office. I don't think he deserved it based on his politics. It is more urgent now to send him home to recover. If this man has any thought processes remaining, shame on him for continuing his campaign. And shame on the journalists who pretend he is fine and want us to take their word on it. What else less obvious do they lie to us about, eh? To Hell with the scum. Tip to Instapundit.

The Mexican drug cartels have a fascinating source of weapons that doesn't involve smuggling them from America. Tip to Instapundit.

What's the big deal? "Sweden’s new right-wing government has sparked an outcry after scrapping the Ministry of Environment in a move the opposition has branded 'devastating'." If Sweden is like America, every federal department--including defense--has an environment position. Tip to Instapundit.

I didn't see this coming. Although do they really want to go all the way to Ukraine to die under Russia's inept leadership? Special forces are not really good infantry. But that's how Russia will use them and that's how they'll die. Pity our CIA didn't have the brains to rescue and recruit them. Pity they're not still killing jihadis in Afghanistan with our help.

Don't be silly, if our military plans to be ready to fight China by the 2030s, the Chinese will be Chivalrous enough to hold their fire until then.

Putin monitored test launches for his ballistic and cruise missile nuclear forces. That's nice. Do the warheads work? Do the missiles not prepared for the firing under his gaze work?

After a lull, Iranian protests seem to have flared up again. We'll see if the leadership of Iran splits and backs the protesters and if some of the armed groups defect to the protesters and turn this into a revolution. 

When Russia first invaded Ukraine, I was opposed and wanted Ukraine to defeat the Russians. But I tried to keep an open mind about whether Russia was committing war crimes. Well, part of my early war open mind was made possible by lack of information about what Russia was doing back then. Bastards.

Ideally, no more $1,000 wrenches because you have to build the machine to make the unique wrench: "In late spring 2023, the [Army] Rock Island Arsenal in Illinois will become home to the largest 3D metal printer in the world."

Israeli air raid on targets around Damascus. Likely Iranians or their weapons.

Progress: "The first of the new American Ford class CVN (nuclear-powered aircraft carrier) has finally left for its long delayed operational stress test. This means two months at sea, operating as a fully functional aircraft carrier." Well, zip-a-dee-doo-friggin'-dah.

The West is having problems keeping Ukraine supplied: "The basic problem is that it is a historical fact, reinforced by the current situation, that you must maintain adequate stockpiles of ammunition and equipment for use against a large, well-equipped force in a war." Russia has some problems, too, at least.

China has a theory of war to defeat the United States. Carrying out the plan might be a problem. And remember, everyone has a PLAN to win--until they get punched in the fleet. But let's hope the Navy can throw the punches.

All we know for sure about what's going on is China is that Hu's clearly not on first.

Some Twitter employees sent a letter to Elon Musk making demands. It's nice that Musk has a list of employees with so much spare time that he can fire them. Tip to Instapundit.

Russia's constant nuclear weapons boasts and threats have an effect: "The United States has accelerated the fielding of a more accurate version of its mainstay nuclear bomb to NATO bases in Europe, according to a U.S. diplomatic cable and two people familiar with the issue."

NORAD becomes relevant again. And should America and Canada expand radars to Denmark's Greenland?

To repeat, if Russia attacks Starlink satellites, Putin will find that Elon Musk can replace satellites faster than Russia can build and launch anti-satellite weapons. And I imagine Musk can use older Starlink satellites to accidentally plow into Russian satellites if necessary.

Whenever Marie Harf appears on TV I mute her. It's either that or replace the TV after I throw a brick through it. Supply chain problems make that risky. I will never forget nor forgive her performance as a State Department liar in the Obama administration. Shame on any network that hires her for on-air work.

I've worried that the Marine Littoral Regiment has such a small number of anti-ship missiles when its job is to sink Chinese warships. But the project to arm HIMARS with anti-ship missiles is moving along. So that helps. We'll see how China like A2/AD.

Michigan Governor Whitmer continues to boast about all the bipartisan bills that passed under her. Don't be surprised. That's normal. Most bills are technical in nature or non-controversial and get overwhelming votes in favor. The bitter arguments we see on TV over some bills is not the norm. Running to the head of the parade and pretending to lead it is just nonsense. Pro-Whitmer ads are on all the time and I've never seen a Dixon ad.

Rotating F-15Cs through Japan rather than permanently stationing them will help with reinforcement practice and get more squadrons familiar with the region. Of course, they're getting old and going away soon.

I mentioned the latter's use in Indonesia: "The Joint Pacific Multinational Readiness Center will have two physical campuses, in Hawaii and Alaska, and a third mobile  campus to be an 'exportable capability that can deploy throughout the Indo-Pacific.'"

Trouble: "The United States is proposing that a multilateral force, led by another country, be deployed to Haiti with urgency to help Haiti's police break the stranglehold of gangs on its major ports and roadways[.]"

The U.S. announced new aid--mostly ammunition--for Ukraine.

What? "The op-ed by the secretaries of the Army, Air Force and Navy (“Uncle Sam Wants You for a Military Job That Matters” by Christine Wormuth, Frank Kendall and Carlos Del Toro, Oct. 25) is an interesting piece of recruiting. What’s left out is that those same secretaries would rather have critical race theory taught to our servicemen than work to create a warrior ethos." Nonsense! Our leaders don't have many woke substitutes for victory! It's just the damn pandemic.

I'm not happy with extremism among veterans. But I don't think it is the job of the DOD or VA to combat that problem. They have enough problems doing their actual jobs without this added. If it is a problem. I don't trust how Democrats define "extremism." All extremism that moves beyond unpleasant opinions to crimes are local or federal police problems. I'm not happy with all extremism. Or are advocates of this policy unwilling to let defunded police and woke prosecutors deal with the issue the same way they deal with non-veteran extremists?

Hey China! "B-1B Lancers deployed to Guam for a bomber task force joint training mission with the Navy, with Airmen and Sailors practicing loading and releasing naval mines from the B-1s."

The idea that reading something that Hitler wrote means you are a Nazi is ridiculous. In college I read the words of Marx, Lenin, Soviet military leaders, and others. To know our enemy. So just stop.

A gift for Putin: "Moscow's proxy rulers in the occupied port city of Kherson said this week that they've taken the bones of Prince Grigory Aleksandrovich Potemkin, the lover of Catherine the Great who played a key role in the annexation of Crimea in 1783 and the establishment of 'New Russia' in what is now southern Ukraine."

 

If the Biden administration won't defend America from mere migrants by securing our borders, what makes anybody think the Biden administration would defend America from actual foreign enemies?

In America, the pandemic is becoming endemic--something we just live with because it isn't something we can defeat. In China, the endemic autocracy of the Chinese Communist Party--that wasn't so horrible to live under when you consider the power of the CCP and the massive increase in the standard of living--is becoming a pandemic of ordering people about in its efforts to order about the Xi Jinping Covid-19 Flu.

Is China's GDP overstated by 60%? Big if true. Their defense spending is a much bigger burden, for example. Tip to Instapundit. I've been a skeptic of China's rise to surpass America as many posts show. A decade ago I wondered about the quality of China's growth. Four years ago I mentioned the light metric. And three years ago I noted skepticism of official stats. But I never would have guessed by this much. The power of fictional compound interest, eh? Still, despite impressive growth, China's economy isn't nearly as big as we thought regardless of the actual figure.

I give the Biden administration credit: "Israel and Lebanon signed a U.S.-mediated maritime border agreement Thursday, representing a rare example of economic cooperation between the two countries that are still technically at war with one another. " Now try to bring Lebanon into the Abraham Accords. Which requires defeating Iran and their Hezbollah ally. 

I hadn't read this before: Russia's "forced resettlement of Ukrainians into the[Russian Far East.]" it's horrible, of course. But not alien to autocrats of empires. I've long assumed that if China conquers Taiwan it will deport Taiwanese to Xinjiang and Tibet provinces to act as forced settlers to swamp the locals and make room for Han colonists on Taiwan to cement control there.

Science! run amok.

Worry: "Top government officials in Iran have been chartering up to 'five flights a day' for their families as they seek 'British passports' to get them out of the country, Express.co.uk reported on Thursday." Hmmm.

The long road to the so far unnamed MPF light tank. I suggest calling it the FBOH.

LOL

 

It isn't ominous at all that Xi Jinping and his top leadership made a pilgrimage to the shrine of Mao's old base of operations.

It's funny. The West has moved on from hopes that regime change in Moscow would end war with Russian retreat and moved to battlefield victory as route out. Putin has failed on battlefield and has moved his hopes to regime change in Washington.

Russia will end the deal to export Ukrainian grain. But does Ukraine need permission at this point? Could the ships travel through NATO territorial waters?

Ukraine learns how to shoot down Iran's drones.

Regardless of the reason, it is terrible that Speaker Pelosi's husband was attacked by a man using a hammer. Before knowing the facts, Democrats are blaming the lunatic with apparent markers of being a leftist on Republicans--notwithstanding the media emphasis on only some of his beliefs. Let's get the facts. Question: the attacker apparently took the hammer from Pelosi's husband. Why would a man determined to attack the speaker break in without a weapon, counting on getting a weapon inside the house?

That seems like a scummy thing to do. 

Actual Resistance to tyrants: "Weeks of protest in Iran entered a more violent phase on Sunday as students defied an ultimatum by the Revolutionary Guards and were met with tear gas, beatings and gunfire from riot police and militia, social media videos showed." We'll see if the regime armed elements continue to be unified and willing to kill for the regime; and if the leadership remains united to kill their way through this crisis.

And Now For Something Completely Different

I hate myself for meming you. Can't break free from the things that you do. I wanna blog but I link back to you. That's why I hate myself for meming you.

 

 

 
This is a repeat.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

America Is Too Big to Ignore But Big Enough to Ignore You For a Bit

America has not been supplanted as the dominant global power.

There is a tendency to make too much of American shortcomings. By comparing what we have by a standard of what we purportedly must achieve, you can say America's military is unready, for example. While there is real value in that kind of analysis, don't get carried away and say our military is poor. By those metrics, a very good but too small military is rated poorly. Which would be critical if your enemy is across your border. We don't face that problem. 

Also, war is waged not against our aspirations but against enemies. They have problems that are hard to see. As Russia has demonstrated this year so clearly. China's military isn't as good as their shiny weapons advertise, either.

Putin believed he could fracture NATO by invading Ukraine. He misjudged the relationship and has since gone all mega paranoid seeing an American plot in his ... difficulties. I have not worried about America's commitment to Europe: 

Moscow also failed to understand America’s relationship with Europe. Time and again, Europeans bemoaned that Washington had abandoned its European commitments. That that was never the case didn’t stop U.S. think tanks from validating the idea, nor did it dissuade Russia from believing it. In times of peace, the U.S. could do without the prior relationship with Europe, bickering over trade rules and Russian energy dependence. But when the war broke out, the relationship rapidly transformed.

Trump didn't wreck our ties to Europe and Biden isn't so addled that we forgot our ties.

Europe is an objective to defend as well as a source of allies. But our attention varies with the threat to Europe. Putin made us pay attention: 

Good grief, if Putin had just kept his mouth shut and his army at home, NATO would have continued to disarm.

And Putin took China's "no limits" partnership seriously, when China values trade ties with America more than it values Russian territorial ambitions in Europe. Back to the analysis I quoted initially:

The past few months haven’t taught us that the United States is finagling a new world order. It’s taught us that Russia is weakening, that China is managing its relationship with the U.S. carefully, and that the international architecture created after World War II, though more complex, essentially remains in place. It is a unipolar world.

Remember, even with much greater power, China--our "pacing threat" for judging our military capabilities--has other threats that soak up its power. A problem thus far we don't have.

The American century is not over. 

NOTE: War updates continue here.

What Part of "If it Floats, it Can Sink" is Unclear?

I love carriers. Their history is incredible. They were vital for the Pacific campaign in World War II to undermine Japan's plan to force American forces to die in too high numbers to approach Japan and apply superior industrial power. But I won't let sentimental respect allow me to support many of these too expensive floating tombs.

This article notes the expense of super carriers and their vulnerability to new means of missile attack but argues they are irreplaceable:

But where this argument breaks down is when the available alternatives are considered. What other option does the Navy have than what an aircraft carrier essentially is, a floating, mobile air base? Where are the better options?

Because the Navy is not dependent on land bases, it is not vulnerable to attack the same way the Air Force would be. Along with allowing the Navy not to be tied to land bases, aircraft carriers play a role that a fleet of smaller ships could never fulfill, at least for the foreseeable future. Here are a few reasons that their role is so indispensable.

Sure, they are irreplaceable if you mean power projection against small powers rather than sea control against peers. 

But I find this argument frankly nuts:

Sinking or disabling just one is thought to be nearly impossible—except through the use of a nuclear weapon.

Seriously? If it floats it can sink. And sinking isn't even necessary.  And if we lose a number of them while keeping them in the central role for sea control, we will find them literally irreplaceable because they take many years to build from scratch. Or even to repair those "merely" damaged.

Assuming our shipyards can be protected for years during a long war to complete them.

Hell, given the morale effect of seeing carriers burn and sink, with their thousands of crew lost, the first time we lose one we'll probably pull the rest out of range of enemy forces. What replaces them to fight for sea control if they are too central in our fleet for that role? 

Still, I'll grant the author's argument that if we have afloat air power, big decks make more sense than smaller carriers. I like our America class Lightning "light carriers" because they are in a secondary role from their primary role of amphibious warship. I would not build pure light carriers because they add few additional baskets for the same price. And they would have far less sustained firepower than the big decks for power projection.

Further, as that initial article finds objectionable, so what if critics of carrier vulnerability have suggested no replacement for their sea control role? The carriers will still be burning. Isn't not having them burn in battle a good first step to finding a replacement?

I hate repeatedly addressed super carriers. But the proponents keep making what I think are silly arguments in their favor without distinguishing between power projection and sea control missions.

We need a sea power debate rather than a carrier debate. 

NOTE: War updates continue here.

Seeing is Not Believing

Ukraine achieved battlefield surprise in its Kharkov counteroffensive despite fighting Russia with its satellites, aircraft, data mining, and spies. Seeing is not necessarily believing.

Achieving surprise in the era of cheap persistent surveillance, as Ukraine achieved on the Kharkov front:

In ancient China, the general Sun Tzu counseled that “all warfare is based on deception.” Could that still be the case millennia later—after an industrial and then a digital revolution have left contemporary battlefields awash with intelligence sensors and digital technology that can offer commanders unprecedented levels of situational awareness? Advancement in thermal imaging can highlight targets concealed to the naked eye, while near constant real-time observation from constellations of satellites and seemingly ubiquitous unmanned vehicles can inhibit maneuver, deliver precision strikes, and provide timely indications and warning. Voluminous twitter threads and uploads of data, metadata, and even curated datasets provide a surprisingly granular understanding of the battlespace, and internet platforms like Google Maps can indicate traffic congestion along main motorways caused by an invasion. This may lead some to consider the fog of war practically dispelled, and, as a consequence, military deception a tool of a bygone, less transparent, and less sensor-laden era. But analyzing recent Ukrainian victories would correct this erroneous point of view. In early September the Ukrainian military accomplished the most major feat of arms in the Russo-Ukrainian war (thus far) with deception at its foundation. Some principles are timeless.

Do read it all.

As I've often written, including nearly a year ago in regard to Russia's massing of troops, surprise is not about hiding what you are doing but about helping your enemy accept a benign explanation for what they see you doing: 

Russian military maneuvers near Ukraine are seasonal and routine. Okay. But if Russia wants to invade Ukraine (even more than it has) it could time the attack with these "seasonal" and "routine" maneuvers and movements in order to keep Ukraine and the West lulled into complacency to achieve tactical surprise. Remember, surprise attacks have warnings. But the surprised target somewhere in the chain of command had explanations other than imminent attack to explain the warnings.

Russia spent many months massing troops while denying this was anything to be worried about. This reflects my view of Russia's so-called "hybrid warfare" that I deny is anything new:

Over-analyzing Russia's deception causes the West to miss the point that "hybrid warfare" is very simple: Russia invades a country; Russia denies it has invaded a country; and the West goes along with Russian denials.

That's it. The West could have reacted very differently by simply refusing to go along with the Russian denials and acting on what we knew was going on--Russia had invaded a free (if corrupt) country.

Instead we act is if we need CSI: Donbas to prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that Russians are fighting inside Ukraine on the orders of Putin.

This simple Russian practice of denial of even the bleeding obvious is frustrating. But it aids the West in talking itself into positions favorable to Russia. If Russia denies any bad intent or even action despite what we can see, many in the West will eagerly argue that Russia has no bad intent or that it isn't doing anything at all, despite what working eyeballs connected to brains should indicate.

Not that I predicted the war. It made no sense to me. But Putin had a different opinion of the correlation of forces. 

Nor did I predict Ukraine's Kharkov front offensive over what I still think is the more important--and visible--Kherson front. Not that I could see anything on the Kharkov front. Unless I did and discounted it.

But if I had been privy to such information I bet I would have run it through my bias in favor of the Kherson front's primacy. Perhaps I would have argued Ukrainian units "massing" are phantom formations. Or maybe they are a reserve to resist a Russian offensive on the Donbas front in reaction to the Kherson front. Or maybe I'd think they were recovering and regrouping from combat on the Donbas front. Or I could have believed they were a second-stage Kherson front force to drive on Melitopol.

But Ukraine either decided Kharkov was more important than Kherson or that it was more important to inflict a defeat on the Russians somewhere sooner. And Russian reinforcement of Kherson at the expense of Kharkov made Kharkov the more important front with that criteria.

Deception may be physically harder because of technology. But the minds that use the technology are the same old gullible meat sacks that Sun Tzu counted on.

NOTE: War updates continue here.

Resist Every Stage of the Missile Path

Ground-based missile defenses such as our mostly Alaska-based missiles cannot be the only defense against ICBMs. The missile defenses must start where the enemy launches and continue until the last minute when the last ditch defenders take their shot.

Using the F-35 to shoot down enemy ICBMs during the boost phase shortly after launch.: 

The concept, according to industry and Pentagon developers, would be to use F-35 weapons and sensors to detect or destroy an ICBM launch during its initial "boost" phase of upward flight toward the boundary of the earth’s atmosphere. The F-35 could use a 'kinetic" solution wherein it fires upon and destroys a launching ICBM -- or a "sensor" solution where it "cues missile defense systems."  

While Pentagon F-35 officials emphasize the F-35 program is currently focused on nearer-term efforts such as delivering software upgrades to the airplane, there is growing consensus that exploring F-35 nuclear missile defense is something of great potential benefit. Early conversations and conceptual work are already underway.

I've noted this possibility. And before the F-35, addressed boost phase defenses as part of a layered defense:

[In a preemptive layer,] we'll strike hard using advance penetrating precision weapons with a layer of defenses backstopping our effort to kill leakers, stretching from the Iranian target site back to our assets that might be struck. We'll use modified Sidewinders and AMRAAM on fighters over the enemy target to hit missiles in their boost phase, airborne PAC-3 missiles to strike missiles in flight once we know where the enemy missiles are headed, and ground-based point defense PAC-3s and area missile defenses based on land and sea. Add in airborne lasers later. Hopefully, we nail the missiles on the ground and if not, somebody on the ballistic arc manages a hit before detonation over the Iranians' target.

If the layered defense is good enough for the threat level, the effort to take out missiles before launch could take place after the enemy begins launching, rather than being preemptive.

The use of the F-35 as a sensor rather than shooter is also a concept I've noted.

As with dealing with conventional anti-ship ballistic missiles, you need to fight the threat across the entire kill chain from target acquisition and enemy launch to the final seconds of the attack. Could drone swarms be the last ditch defense?

NOTE: War updates continue here.

The Winter War of 2022: Ukraine Gives Russia Sanctuaries

As Ukraine drives Russian forces back, Russian forces pushed back into Russia find themselves in sanctuaries--because Ukraine can't really invade the far larger Russia--able to regroup to return to Ukraine for the fight. Until Russia finds it must rely on even more of those sanctuaries to hold the line. Then things get complicated and dangerous. Even for Ukraine.

Despite Russian claims that it invaded Ukraine to prevent an invasion, Ukraine essentially can't invade Russia (as opposed to limited strike and special forces attacks) despite pushing Russia back on large sections of the front to the border. If it does invade even a little, it gives Putin an easy escape to his military problem by allowing Putin to declare Russia invaded and justify full mobilization--and probably rallying the Russians around Putin. And even Russian use of tactical nukes against Ukrainian units on Russian territory would likely be met with relatively muted outrage abroad.

On the other hand, with Ukraine pushing Russia back to more of the border, Ukraine must defend the borders to prevent Russia from striking back into Ukraine and potentially flanking and isolating Ukrainian forces advancing to liberate more Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory. Although if not trained and equipped, those masses of poorly trained men mobilized are more likely to suffer the fate of the Italian 10th Army in Egypt in 1940.

Some say Russia cannot admit defeat in its war against Ukraine and that Ukraine can't stop until it liberates all of its territory. I imagine Russia's retreat to its own borders on parts of the front will be an interim step before having to admit defeat.

Recall that when Iraq invaded Iran in 1980 to "recover" its territory and ethnic Arab people from Persian Iran, eventually Iran killed enough Iraqis troops to force Iraqi troops back into Iraq itself where it was forced into expensive defensive operations for years. So I imagine Russia can admit a need to retreat--even if it insists the war will go on--if its losses get too high. 

Ukraine should learn from that war that trying to attack too much as Iran did for years after pushing Iraq back to the border (more or less) is very dangerous. Rather than declare a defensive victory, Iran tried to crush Iraq. And limited Iranian success in advancing into Iraq led Iran to push too hard and break its own army despite its long advantage of superior numbers, morale, and willingness to die.

The long war ended with the border largely unchanged after hundreds of thousand of dead. That said, I don't know what "too much" is for Ukraine. There are certainly areas that must be liberated for its security or economic health:

Ukraine must regain certain specific areas currently under Russian occupation to ensure its long-term security and economic viability. Ukraine’s ability to defend itself against a future Russian attack requires liberating most of Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts. Ukraine’s economic health requires liberating the rest of Zaporhizia Oblast and much of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts, including at least some territory Russia seized in 2014. Ukraine’s security would be materially enhanced by liberating Crimea, which would also benefit NATO’s ability to secure its southeastern flank. [emphasis in original]

And part of "too much" could also learn from the Iran-Iraq War when both sides reacted to the stalemate. Each side hit the other's cities and tried to destroy the other's means of financing the war by striking oil exports. The latter eventually brought America and its allies into the war on Iraq's side at sea. And even got the USSR involved a little bit on Iraq's side.

Would Ukraine try to sabotage Russian energy pipelines? Would Russia try to strike NATO logistics support infrastructure for Ukraine in Poland?

Or would Russia attack Elon Musk's Starlink? Could Ukraine rig an anti-satellite weapons to loft up into low-earth orbit from a fighter jet to hit Russian assets?

And don't forget that Iraq resorted to chemical weapons to kill Iranian troops.

Ukraine is fully justified in liberating everything, of course. Russia recognized Ukraine's borders before 2014 and pledged to respect its territory. But the price versus the result is a consideration. The most basic result is making sure Russia can't just rebuild and invade again in the future. Ad infinitum. That's why I think the southern front is so important.

Still, before it gets to the "too much" stage the West might successfully provide an "off ramp" for Russia and Ukraine. Ukraine ends its offensive before it risks its own army; and before Russia cracks as a political entity with all the risks of nuclear war in defense of Russia's territorial integrity or "only" the dispersal of Russian nuclear weapons to more breakaway states. Who will give up nukes as Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan did when the USSR broke apart, given Russia's invasions of Ukraine?

But we're not at that stage of an opportunity to end the war short of the territorial destruction of either Ukraine or Russia.

And who knows, maybe the beatings with the clue bat will provide Russia with a moment of clarity about the true threats to Russian territorial integrity. 

UPDATE: Ukraine's intelligence chief says Russia is reinforcing the fortified city of Kherson to fight for it. Does Russia intend to fight for all of the west bank of the Dniepr River or just a bridgehead at Kherson to retain options for an offensive to Odessa? Or is reinforcing the city just to make it the last bridgehead to cover the final withdrawal to the east bank? Or are Russian troops just passing through and paused waiting for a crossing opportunity?

UPDATE: ISW assesses that while Russia is withdrawing from some parts of Kherson province, Russia is prepared to defend Kherson city. Also, Russia may only plan to blow the road on the top of the Kakhovka dam. And then there is this:

Kursk Oblast Govenor Roman Starovoit announced the completion of the construction of two reinforced defense lines on the border with Ukraine on October 23 — likely an act of security theater designed to target a domestic Russian audience since there is no danger whatsoever of a Ukrainian mechanized invasion of Russia.

Why would it be reassuring to suggest Ukraine can invade? Odd, no? Also:

Ukrainian forces continued targeting Russian force concentrations near the Zaporizhia Oblast front line on October 23–24 and struck a Russian force and equipment concentration in the vicinity of Enerhodar on October 22.

I mentioned it seems like Ukraine is striking more in this region lately. Will Ukraine shift its offensive efforts here?

UPDATE (Tuesday): The Russians are no longer just fighting Ukrainian Nazis. Or NATO. Or the West, in general. Now Russia is fighting Satanic forces in Ukraine. So there's that.

UPDATE (Wednesday): The war has been raging for 8 months. For all the attention to Putin's mobilization order, what did he do with the spring recruits? They could be trained and equipped by now, no? Or were they fed into the line over the last 8 months to replace losses at the front? I can't say I remember reading about that. But if they exist as new units, where are they?

UPDATE: Russia seems conflicted about their positions on the west bank of the Dnieper River in Kherson province. For a while it seemed clear that Russia was evacuating. Now it seems like Kherson city at least will be defended. Is there confusion in Russia's command? Do generals want to avoid losing troops isolated on the wrong side of the river while Putin wants to keep a bridgehead to eventually resume an offensive on Odessa? If there is confusion it might guarantee that Ukraine captures a lot of troops on the west bank if it ever fires up its offensive there.

UPDATE (Thursday): I read stories about Ukraine's Kherson offensive. I even read one that said Ukraine was surrounding Kherson from the west. What offensive action? I don't see it. Unless Ukraine has really clamped down on information about capturing territory the front has remained static. Why? Is Ukraine too weak to push the Russians back? If so, why? Are Russians more capable of fighting than they seem? What is going on?

UPDATE: What I hope is that Ukraine is trying to suck Russian forces across the Dniepr River where they can be cut off by blowing bridges and ferries. And then the Ukrainians strike south from Zaporizhzhya to advance on Melitopol. But I have no idea. I may expect too much.

UPDATE (Friday): Russia's "Wagner offensive" continues to batter its army against Ukrainian defenders on the Donetsk front, slowly grinding forward at high costs; Ukraine continues to slowly take ground north of that on the Luhansk front; and Ukraine continues to pound Russian supply lines and perhaps is taking some ground slowly on the Luhansk front. 

Can either side mass sufficient power to make more real gains this year? Will somebody suffer a cracking of morale on a section of the front and see their army flee from such an offensive?

UPDATE: Even without using nuclear weapons or dirty bombs, Russia's nuclear weapons deter the West from supplying even more help--including direct help--to the Ukrainians. And winter is coming for both sides. 

UPDATE: Oh?

Ukrainian forces have steadily recaptured territory on the west or right bank of the Dnipro. The front line is 30km (18 miles) away from the city, according to Ukrainian officials.

I don't think the front line west of the city has moved much in months. The only major advance was from the north and that has been static for several weeks.

UPDATE (Sunday): I thought the Russians pulled their fleet back to the eastern Black Sea: 

Social media footage documented an unknown number of unmanned surface vehicles striking at least one Grigorovich-class frigate in Sevastopol on October 29.[1] Footage also showed smoke near the port in Sevastopol and what appeared to be Russian air defense in Sevastopol engaging air targets.[2"

Watch for confirmation.

Also from ISW, is Russia preparing to simulate an insurgency, anticipating Ukraine's liberation of the Kherson region on the west side of the Dnieper River?

Russia is likely expediting efforts to forcibly depopulate areas of Kherson Oblast along the Dnipro River and repopulate them with Russian soldiers, some out of uniform in violation of the law of armed conflict.

ISW suggests it is to make it look like Ukraine is shooting at civilians when in fact the targets are soldiers pretending to be civilians. 

UPDATE: NYT: A combination of spotter drones for more accurate Western artillery and ammunition plus shortages of ammunition for Russia's mass fire-based artillery may have given Ukraine's artillery the advantage over Russia's artillery capabilities.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here.

Weekend Data Dump

It wasn't an insurrection, it was a pageant. Tip to Instapundit.

Russia launched its third satellite in a week. A "mysterious" satellite that apparently is an optical reconnaissance satellite. Not so mysterious, then? Given Ukraine's surprise Kharkov offensive, I imagine Russia would like more eyes in the sky. Via Instapundit.

How the Fuck-Up Fairy ran Russia's special "reservist" mobilization. And we'll see how the potential conscripts for the fall intake react when the men know that the war is technically inside Russia because of Putin's annexation of Ukrainian territory.

Amidst a European energy crisis, the Netherlands is shutting down a natural gas field because of ... mild tremors. Tip to Instapundit.

If Xi Jinping's anti-corruption drive was about reducing corruption rather than a means to reduce political opposition, I'd worry.

Practicing with amphibious ships used as light carriers. They can leverage the broader capabilities of a large carrier's air wing. I find deploying F-35Bs to temporary land bases the most interesting, much as World War II escort carriers could ferry aircraft to newly captured island airfields.

Oh? "The European Union will train thousands of Ukrainian soldiers on its own soil [...]" Mind you, that's great. But the European Union does not have its own soil. That's the soil of sovereign member states. For now. The proto-imperial EU wants to strip away the prefix, so likes to confuse the terminology.

The Army thinks about what comes after the Abrams tank. I'm guessing an updated Abrams. Perhaps with the weight coming down--somehow. Although I thought the FBOH addressed the weight problem. Still, I should be grateful that the Army doesn't think the light FBOH is the wonder tank (starting on p. 28) that combines the lethality and protection of the Abrams with the FBOH ability to cross lighter bridges.

I hadn't realized there has been unrest the last month there: "Canada and the United States have sent 'security equipment', including tactical and armoured vehicles, to Haiti to help the country tackle a political, economic and security crisis, according to a joint statement."

India can fire SLBMs now. It will be a while before the capability is deployable. Anything that gives India reassurance that it doesn't need to launch nukes on warning lets me sleep better.

It's rather tragic in a human sense that families of Russian "reservists" mobilized under Putin's order are bringing needed equipment and clothing to those men. In the Russian military, the toughest thugs will steal the much-needed stuff. Russia says it brought in 220,000 men with this mobilization order.

Russia decides terror bombing is the way to go: "Waves of explosives-laden suicide drones struck Ukraine's capital Monday[.]" It's easier to "aim" at a city and hit something.

Past returns are no guarantee of future results: China edition.

Democrats seem to be pivoting back to the "election validity denial is good" position.

So West and Walker can't agree with Trump? They must be his "puppets"? Huh. So, who holds the strings of Juan Williams?

Houston, we have a Navy cost-overrun problem for our next destroyer? If the past is a guide, yes. If the urgency of the situation breeds better practices, no.

Iran supplies Russia with the drones being used to bombard Ukraine's cities. This must be tough on Democrats who own a Ukraine flag (but not a U.S. flag) yet still totally looove the mullah regime.

I read an article about how refusing to debate is a threat to our democracy. No. As a rule those behind in polls want debates and naturally ridicule an opponent who doesn't want debates. Those ahead naturally don't want the risk. Are reporters saying that they can't present candidates' views to voters without debates? Still, the media rule is that only Republicans avoiding debates are a threat to our democracy.

A Democratic candidate is confused that voters don't care about January 6th. I cared about those rioters and trespassers that day. I was horrified. But they were quickly cleared out. And it didn't affect anything. That's not how a coup works. And then I became far more concerned about how mere trespassers were treated by the government as Democrats tried to turn that bad transitory event into a Reichstag fire.

Charles Blow is a moron. And I saw him speak at the beginning of the Trump administration (don't ask). I went in annoyed at having to listen to him yet left amused and annoyed. Amused at how weak his arguments were--taking only "certain" instances of Trump being mean and arguing that was a damning pattern of specific hate. And annoyed that the audience was largely a religious revival meeting applauding every stupid thing he said.

I'm late to this CRS report on the proposed Light Amphibious Warship. I have problems with the ship design.

The Syria multi-war continues at a low level--but with Assad losing a lot of the Russian and Iranian financial support he once got. 

France provided 20 MRAPs to Ukraine, custom equipped for Ukraine's special forces. How will the Ukrainians use them?

Getting the correlation of forces wrong. Via The Dupuy Institute.

Biden orders more oil released from the Election Petroleum Reserve. Thank God we have a separate Strategic Petroleum Reserve in case of strategic reasons  to really need a temporary surge of oil until regular sources can be restored. Tip to Instapundit.

Eritrean intervention on the government's side seems to have had an effect: "Tigrayan forces have admitted that Ethiopian troops have taken control of the strategic city of Shire."

While I think the Marines are basically correct to support the Navy directly in achieving sea control against the Chinese in the Pacific (with some caveats), the rest of the world could use a different Marine Corps with its discarded capabilities. Yes.

What? "China has decided to seize Taiwan on a 'much faster timeline' than previously thought, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said today, shortly after China’s leader reiterated his intent to take the island by force if necessary." You mean China's genetic long-range planning ability--as too many Westerners claim and swoon over--had to be revised? LOL.

So Stan Grant of the ABC thinks white people have essentially outsourced their racism to the Chinese? I'm not sure if his woke idiocy is worse than his historical illiteracy. Exit question: if non-white people like the Chinese can become white enough to be racists, isn't racism doomed to extinction? Tip to Instapundit.

America is pulling support for China's chip manufacturing (via Instapundit). Taiwan has the world's best semiconductor manufacturing. I'm just going to note that when America embargoed oil to Japan, Japan responded in 1941 by seizing oil fields in the Dutch East Indies, capturing the Philippines from America and bombing Pearl Harbor to forestall resistance. No way history kind of rhymes, right?

Germany's decision to join the West is still hesitant when it comes to helping Ukraine. But: "Given the country’s pacifist post–World War II tradition, it is impressive how far Germany has come on military matters." Ah, that recent tradition. I have advice that remains valid: "I keep reading that the Germans hate their militaristic past so much that they don't want to fight. Let's try applying the clue bat to Germany's collective skull on this issue. Conquering and setting up death camps under the shield of a powerful military? That's bad. By all means, don't do that. Having a military capable of fighting death cult enemies or stopping the Russians from moving west? Well, that's a good thing. Try doing that."

I imagine that Russia's use of Iranian suicide drones for large-scale attacks on Ukraine's civilians telegraphs--and tests--what Iran intends for Israel or Saudi Arabia. Might Israel send drone defenses to Ukraine to test them against the Iranian weapons?

The Russians are managing to get some computer chips from China (via Instapundit): "Quoting an anonymous source, Kommersant states that before Russia's illegal invasion of Ukraine the defect rate in imported silicon was two percent. Since that war commenced, Russian manufacturers have apparently faced 40 percent failure rates." The article starts by saying chips are faulty. But doesn't "silicon" indicate a raw material for chips? Chip fabrication is outside of my lane, however. Still, a partnership without limits? Please.

I don't see how Sweden's "proof" that the Nordstream pipeline burst from the inside proves Russia attacked them. That's also how lack of maintenance would wreck them. External explosions would prove sabotage, no? But internal at least means Ukraine, America, or NATO states didn't wreck it.

Hmmm, is this part of the Russia-Iran arms deal designed to take pressure off of Russia's client, Armenia? "The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) began a three-day military exercise along the Iran-Azerbaijan border on October 17 likely to threaten Azerbaijan for allegedly hosting Israeli intelligence agents."

Mali--resistant to reforming--kicked out the French and brought in the Russian Wagner Group. That worked out well for the jihadis. Will the UN forces remain with this attitude? Which I assume is fine with Putin if that sends more migrants to Europe. 

Russia uses their long-range bombers sparingly over Ukraine.

Gotland Island stands between NATO and Russia? With Finland and Sweden joining NATO I don't think Gotland is nearly as important for stopping Russia in the Baltic Sea. Russia has to run a gauntlet through the Finland-Estonia funnel just to reach the main NATO power. If Russians can take the island they won't hold it long.

The Israel-Lebanon sea border deal will provide Lebanon with needed money from natural gas sales, which will tend to keep Lebanon from being hostile to Israel.

Russia's hope to arrest its demographic death spiral by capturing Ukrainians is backfiring with casualties, fleeing young Russians, reduced birth rates from war and economic fears, and evidence that Ukrainians do not aspire to be loyal Russians. Bravo. Tip to Instapundit.

Is Iran hitting Iraqi Kurds for the purpose of distracting from Iran's crackdown on protesters? Possibly. but historically, Iraq and Iran have tried to destabilize each other by supporting the other's Kurdish minorities. with Iraq's Kurds having well-armed autonomy within Iraq, Iran is the vulnerable party now.

To be fair, Chinese election influence and money (for Bill Clinton) was a topic of discussion in the 1990s. And yeah, break up the FBI for parts and decimate its leadership. Via Instapundit.

The refugees fleeing Putin's war.

Yeah, I'm not happy with the proliferation of gaming. I didn't mind it as long as it was distant so you couldn't gamble your paycheck on the way home. Now casinos are close by and you can gamble on your phone. Sure, I drafted the legislative resolution concurring in the first Indian gaming compacts in Michigan. And in the last few years I've come to enjoy Las Vegas. But I still don't like the proliferation. Funny enough, "gaming" is an old term and not a new term to obscure "gambling". Tip to Instapundit.

This is a shameful part of our history. But those responsible were just following the sacred Science! of the time, right? Don't be a science or hoaxer denier. Via Instapundit.

Have there been dogfights between drones over Ukraine?  Dogfights between wire-controlled and radio-controlled model planes has been a hobby for decades. And I did write about fighter drones in Army magazine some years ago. Not too surprisingly, the military was looking at that well before it occurred to me.

Let's talk about denying election results.

A Russian fighter plane "released" a missile near a British signals intelligence plane flying over the Black Sea that temporarily stopped the flights until the British began escorting the plane. I imagine no weapon was fired and that a missile was simply dropped. Otherwise they'd say "launched", eh?

Prime Minister Truss resigned. Wow, that was fast. Tip to Instapundit.

Explosive boats (and recall the fire ships from sailing days).

Well that's unusual: "The top U.S. military commander for the Middle East boarded a U.S. ballistic missile submarine in the Arabian Sea on Wednesday, a rare move that highlighted U.S. nuclear undersea capabilities during tense times with Iran and Russia." And efficient. Signals to Russia, China, and Iran.

The British say that senior Russian military leadership is dysfunctional and lower rank officers are too few to lead the masses of new conscripts. The latter will either get the troops killed or make it easier for them to avoid fighting, desert, or surrender. So ... maybe: "National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said Thursday that his advice to fighting-age men in Russia would be to 'not fight' in Vladimir Putin’s brutal war in Ukraine."

I agree with the White House that no Space Force National Guard is needed. We have no Marine National Guard, no Navy National Guard, and no Coast Guard National Guard. And we probably only have an Air National Guard because our air service was born in the Army, which had the original National Guard. A Space Force Reserve will be fine. Unless it would be too small not to put their reserves in the Air Force Reserve.

Japan is rushing rearmament to be ready by the next CCP "Congress" in 2027. Makes sense. A pacifist constitution is not a suicide pact.

The Philippines will scrap a contract for Russian helicopters in favor of seeking a American model.

"The Marine Corps is looking at northern Australia, where 2,200 Marines wrapped up a six-month training rotation this week, as a hub to launch influence into Southeast Asia, according to a former Marine officer." Well, sure. It is known.

Ve haf vays of making you stay avay. Bravo. Makes me want to consider VW for my next car. Tip to Treacher.

Will Russia use its troop deployment to Belarus to interdict Ukrainian supply lines from Poland? A missile and air campaign might makes sense. Whether it would work enough and avoid significant aircraft losses, I don't know. A land invasion makes little sense, given how few Russians are involved, the poor state of Belarus' army, and Russia's logistics weaknesses and other related problems.

What the Hell is wrong with the U.S. government? "Yet for some reason the U.S. government refuses to make Starlink service part of its multi-billion-dollar military aid effort for Ukraine." Does our government think Elon Musk is a bigger enemy than Russia? Note, too, that China is trying to disrupt Starlink to help Russia.

Los Angeles finds novel way to battle homeless addict camps?

Canada is working on the design for their new primary surface warship. 

Pakistan's Baluchi separatists are getting more active. With American weapons: "I believe I mentioned a lot of weapons that the Taliban captured would make it to others because of corruption: 'With the Taliban in power, more American weapons and military accessories are now being openly sold in shops by Afghan gun dealers who paid government soldiers and Taliban fighters for guns, ammunition and other matériel, according to weapons dealers in Kandahar Province in southern Afghanistan.' There will be collateral damage affecting the Taliban and Pakistan. Enjoy."

I won't be lectured by Democrats who celebrated riots and mob takeovers of government buildings because "this is what democracy looks like." And yeah, I'm more worried about a corrupt and politicized federal bureaucracy.

Xi Jinping has gotten the CCP to confirm his indefinite power grab. But the mountains remain high. Can the emperor cope when the economy stutters?

I heard a Democratic media guy (on MSNBC, I think) say releasing oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve for political reasons is justified because it will defeat Republicans to "protect our democracy." But they'd never rig an election to protect our democracy? Huh. 

Exsqueezeme? Never say it can't possibly get worse. Tip to Instapundit.

The Navy wishes it could turn back time. Please, that had to be the best recruiting video ever.

Anticipating a vacuum of Russian power in Central Asia? "Kazakhstan and Turkey have signaled plans to develop “long-term strategic cooperation” that would involve the co-production of satellites and other space systems." A vacuum neither want filled by China, I assume.

The lunatics run the asylum.

NATO won't let an aggressor strike Finland or Sweden, believing there is a defense commitment gap between application and full membership. NATO help for Ukraine bolsters that pledge. And the statement and record should bolster Ukraine's confidence that future NATO membership isn't necessary for its security even if it is an option.

I was willing to mostly withhold judgment on that fired NYU organic chemistry professor. But as I've heard more, including this, I'm horrified at what our universities are becoming--young adult day care for way too many. And Covid is just accelerating the Idiocracy trend. Grade inflation is becoming grade hyperinflation.

The horrifying part is that most of the NYT readers nodded in agreement with every one of those positions.

I questioned whether Russia was really sending T-62s into the war. I'd only read of one battalion. Strategypage writes that 800 upgraded tanks have been taken out of storage. Unlike more modern tanks in storage they weren't stripped of valuable parts; and the T-62s don't need imported parts that Russia can't get. Against infantry it is adequate. But its gun might not penetrate the frontal armor of Ukraine's tanks.

LOL!

 

I've seen my state's governor boasting in reelection commercials of how many bipartisan bills have passed during her tenure. It really annoys me. That is the normal state of affairs. The overwhleming majority of bills are not controversial and pass easily with no media attention. Pretending she has uniquely forged bipartisan legislative cooperation is nonsense and the boast is a form of lying.

Bravo:

Hopefully Austin reassured Shoigu that NATO isn't going to invade Russia to destroy it. Of course, the paranoid would say that's exactly what he's expected to say. Apparently the Russian military isn't ready to make peace to save itself.

Yeah, I thought the January 6th riot would be a problem to linger for years. But the Democrats doubled down on acting crazy.

Sounds prudent: "Japan and Australia on Saturday signed a new bilateral security agreement covering military, intelligence and cybersecurity cooperation to counter the deteriorating security outlook driven by China’s increasing assertiveness."

Retreating from Kherson will be a visible defeat for Putin as well as practically abandoning hopes of capturing Odessa and denying Ukraine access to the seas. But Putin may assume a long, multi-stage war--perhaps with "peace" in between stages--that will eventually capture the vital city. Which is why Russia must be driven back even more.

For decades, people said marijuana should be legalized. I don't know what we legalized, but it isn't the marijuana so many older people remember from their youth. Tip to Intapundit.

North Korea is adding underwater launch silos in lakes to their static and railroad-mobile nuclear missile plans. And good to know, North Korea isn't even bothering to create aircraft-carried nukes because enemy air defenses are too strong to challenge. Also, North Korea said its policy is to launch nukes if it thinks it is about to be attacked. I did mention this problem years ago in "option 1."