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Sunday, October 30, 2022

Weekend Data Dump

Is Russia's faux NATO, the Collective Security Treaty Organization of former Soviet states, going to shrink further as a result of Putin's invasion of Ukraine? Will Turkey and China compete for the Central Asian countries seeking security partners?

The Crimea bridge bombing: "This attack involved a special bomb weighing several tons carried by a truck crossing the bridge. It was a suicide mission for the driver and the explosives went off short of where they were intended to detonate for maximum damage." Huh. I didn't think a suicide bombing was likely. That disturbs me.

The Russian ground forces' most problematic recruits.

Iran might be considered a combatant for sending weapons and personnel to help with the weapons to help Putin in his invasion? I don't get it. This is what Western countries are doing for Ukraine. Is the key factor that Putin invaded Ukraine while Western countries are helping repel an invasion? Is it that Iran is breaking sanctions on Russia?

The South Korean navy and North Korean coastal artillery fired warning shots along the disputed western sea border. North Korea seemingly provoked the warning shots by sending a merchant ship across the line.

Reach out and touch someone: "American B-1B Lancer bombers have returned to Guam for another training stint in the Indo-Pacific."

The Marines are sticking with the new Amphibious Combat Vehicle despite 4 capsizing on their sides in the "surf zone over the last year. That really needs to be fixed. Luckily no deaths so far.

Sure, the Marines should focus on amphibious warfare and direct support of the Navy. But I'm not sure how giving up tanks and most artillery helps with the amphibious mission unless the Marines will pass off anything more than 10 miles inland to the Army.

NATO's Mediterranean front: "As such, it can serve as a source of stability for Europe or as a site of disruption for actors like Russia that seek to threaten that stability." I've noted this issue. But I have zero worry about the Russian navy there.

Oh? "A former Russian diplomat has warned that President Vladimir Putin will sacrifice 10 to 20 million Russian soldiers to win the war in Ukraine." I don't think Russians are willing.


I have to say I don't get overly concerned up about drag queen erotic shows for children. I don't think it is appropriate at all for any type of adult to do that in front of children. But in a country this large, I doubt there are that many events, really. And if these shows were prohibited, I imagine those parents willing to take their children to such a show will manage to ef them up in many other ways.

Congratulations new British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.

LOL! "Can you believe Halloween is in just one week? It’s fun and all, but back in the old days, it was called Samhain and involved drunken orgies and human sacrifice. The kids these days have lost all respect for tradition."

The beatings will continue until war performance improves.

Hiding our defeat with medals for technical proficiencyIt was a record-setting retreat, you know.

Reinforcements heading to Europe. Not a lot. But it's growth.

Big deal. Isn't that what fast food restaurants already do?

A quick guide to new Prime Minister Sunak. Let's just hope Biden doesn't mistake him for a 7-Eleven manager when they meet.

I can't remember the last time I heard of a higher ranking Russian officer getting killed at the front. I assume this means the senior officers no longer risk trying to provide needed direction to combat units rather than Russia fixing its lower rank leadership problems. This could mean some Russian units are rather brittle, no?

Why are a number of USO facilities suddenly closing their doors?

Europe faces the winter without Russian energy. I worry the only thing that emerges from the winter stronger is the European Union's powers.

The Abrams tank lives on.

Putin orders his military-industrial complex not to suck as much.

Will the United States send old but updated HAWK air defense missiles still in storage?  I had no idea we still had any in storage.

Venezuela applies to upgrade its Axis of El Vil status to full Axis of Evil membership.

I don't think modern Democratic Party politicians care about the middle class and poor. When the Democrats speak of programs to help those groups, it's never just cuts in taxes or direct payments. It's always programs in a bureaucracy, which require hiring gender studies majors. Who vote for Democrats because that's who supports their jobs and gives them job security. The programs are really just the means to pay for Democratic Party voters and campaign contributors.

Cambridge University teaches a "woke" gender-free version of the German language. That's fun. Now do Arabic.

Don't let Democrats tell you that only conservatives are wary about backing Ukraine's fight against Russia's invasion. "Released by staff without vetting" = "Told the truth about how we feel."

Science! Tip to Instapundit.

Democrats--including Biden--say our freedoms and very democracy are at risk if Republicans win the election. But they'd never rig an election! Nope! No way. Not even to "save" democracy. You crazy nutters!

NASAMS air defense system getting closer to Ukraine

More good jihadis: "The U.S. conducted an airstrike in Somalia on Sunday against al-Shabab, killing two, U.S. Africa Command said Tuesday."

The Marines discuss logistics with the Norwegians.

Climate mission accomplished! "‘$3.8 Trillion of Investment in Renewables Moved Fossil Fuels from 82% to 81% of Overall Energy Consumption’ in 10 Years[.]" Thank God it isn't a real emergency. Because we proved we can't fix it now. Tip to Instapundit.

Is Somalia stable? Global pandemic and economic problems. And war in Europe. But Somalia has hope??

Don't fly. Don't shoot. What do you do?

I do remain kind of stunned that Antifa and BLM stopped rioting nationwide after 2020. Marxists don't like (most) Democrats and BLM hardly thinks Biden ended so-called institutional racism. But I guess those groups really were only the street thugs of the Democratic Party.

I feel sorry for John Fetterman because of his clear stroke damage. I pray he can recover. But he should not serve in public office. I don't think he deserved it based on his politics. It is more urgent now to send him home to recover. If this man has any thought processes remaining, shame on him for continuing his campaign. And shame on the journalists who pretend he is fine and want us to take their word on it. What else less obvious do they lie to us about, eh? To Hell with the scum. Tip to Instapundit.

The Mexican drug cartels have a fascinating source of weapons that doesn't involve smuggling them from America. Tip to Instapundit.

What's the big deal? "Sweden’s new right-wing government has sparked an outcry after scrapping the Ministry of Environment in a move the opposition has branded 'devastating'." If Sweden is like America, every federal department--including defense--has an environment position. Tip to Instapundit.

I didn't see this coming. Although do they really want to go all the way to Ukraine to die under Russia's inept leadership? Special forces are not really good infantry. But that's how Russia will use them and that's how they'll die. Pity our CIA didn't have the brains to rescue and recruit them. Pity they're not still killing jihadis in Afghanistan with our help.

Don't be silly, if our military plans to be ready to fight China by the 2030s, the Chinese will be Chivalrous enough to hold their fire until then.

Putin monitored test launches for his ballistic and cruise missile nuclear forces. That's nice. Do the warheads work? Do the missiles not prepared for the firing under his gaze work?

After a lull, Iranian protests seem to have flared up again. We'll see if the leadership of Iran splits and backs the protesters and if some of the armed groups defect to the protesters and turn this into a revolution. 

When Russia first invaded Ukraine, I was opposed and wanted Ukraine to defeat the Russians. But I tried to keep an open mind about whether Russia was committing war crimes. Well, part of my early war open mind was made possible by lack of information about what Russia was doing back then. Bastards.

Ideally, no more $1,000 wrenches because you have to build the machine to make the unique wrench: "In late spring 2023, the [Army] Rock Island Arsenal in Illinois will become home to the largest 3D metal printer in the world."

Israeli air raid on targets around Damascus. Likely Iranians or their weapons.

Progress: "The first of the new American Ford class CVN (nuclear-powered aircraft carrier) has finally left for its long delayed operational stress test. This means two months at sea, operating as a fully functional aircraft carrier." Well, zip-a-dee-doo-friggin'-dah.

The West is having problems keeping Ukraine supplied: "The basic problem is that it is a historical fact, reinforced by the current situation, that you must maintain adequate stockpiles of ammunition and equipment for use against a large, well-equipped force in a war." Russia has some problems, too, at least.

China has a theory of war to defeat the United States. Carrying out the plan might be a problem. And remember, everyone has a PLAN to win--until they get punched in the fleet. But let's hope the Navy can throw the punches.

All we know for sure about what's going on is China is that Hu's clearly not on first.

Some Twitter employees sent a letter to Elon Musk making demands. It's nice that Musk has a list of employees with so much spare time that he can fire them. Tip to Instapundit.

Russia's constant nuclear weapons boasts and threats have an effect: "The United States has accelerated the fielding of a more accurate version of its mainstay nuclear bomb to NATO bases in Europe, according to a U.S. diplomatic cable and two people familiar with the issue."

NORAD becomes relevant again. And should America and Canada expand radars to Denmark's Greenland?

To repeat, if Russia attacks Starlink satellites, Putin will find that Elon Musk can replace satellites faster than Russia can build and launch anti-satellite weapons. And I imagine Musk can use older Starlink satellites to accidentally plow into Russian satellites if necessary.

Whenever Marie Harf appears on TV I mute her. It's either that or replace the TV after I throw a brick through it. Supply chain problems make that risky. I will never forget nor forgive her performance as a State Department liar in the Obama administration. Shame on any network that hires her for on-air work.

I've worried that the Marine Littoral Regiment has such a small number of anti-ship missiles when its job is to sink Chinese warships. But the project to arm HIMARS with anti-ship missiles is moving along. So that helps. We'll see how China like A2/AD.

Michigan Governor Whitmer continues to boast about all the bipartisan bills that passed under her. Don't be surprised. That's normal. Most bills are technical in nature or non-controversial and get overwhelming votes in favor. The bitter arguments we see on TV over some bills is not the norm. Running to the head of the parade and pretending to lead it is just nonsense. Pro-Whitmer ads are on all the time and I've never seen a Dixon ad.

Rotating F-15Cs through Japan rather than permanently stationing them will help with reinforcement practice and get more squadrons familiar with the region. Of course, they're getting old and going away soon.

I mentioned the latter's use in Indonesia: "The Joint Pacific Multinational Readiness Center will have two physical campuses, in Hawaii and Alaska, and a third mobile  campus to be an 'exportable capability that can deploy throughout the Indo-Pacific.'"

Trouble: "The United States is proposing that a multilateral force, led by another country, be deployed to Haiti with urgency to help Haiti's police break the stranglehold of gangs on its major ports and roadways[.]"

The U.S. announced new aid--mostly ammunition--for Ukraine.

What? "The op-ed by the secretaries of the Army, Air Force and Navy (“Uncle Sam Wants You for a Military Job That Matters” by Christine Wormuth, Frank Kendall and Carlos Del Toro, Oct. 25) is an interesting piece of recruiting. What’s left out is that those same secretaries would rather have critical race theory taught to our servicemen than work to create a warrior ethos." Nonsense! Our leaders don't have many woke substitutes for victory! It's just the damn pandemic.

I'm not happy with extremism among veterans. But I don't think it is the job of the DOD or VA to combat that problem. They have enough problems doing their actual jobs without this added. If it is a problem. I don't trust how Democrats define "extremism." All extremism that moves beyond unpleasant opinions to crimes are local or federal police problems. I'm not happy with all extremism. Or are advocates of this policy unwilling to let defunded police and woke prosecutors deal with the issue the same way they deal with non-veteran extremists?

Hey China! "B-1B Lancers deployed to Guam for a bomber task force joint training mission with the Navy, with Airmen and Sailors practicing loading and releasing naval mines from the B-1s."

The idea that reading something that Hitler wrote means you are a Nazi is ridiculous. In college I read the words of Marx, Lenin, Soviet military leaders, and others. To know our enemy. So just stop.

A gift for Putin: "Moscow's proxy rulers in the occupied port city of Kherson said this week that they've taken the bones of Prince Grigory Aleksandrovich Potemkin, the lover of Catherine the Great who played a key role in the annexation of Crimea in 1783 and the establishment of 'New Russia' in what is now southern Ukraine."

 

If the Biden administration won't defend America from mere migrants by securing our borders, what makes anybody think the Biden administration would defend America from actual foreign enemies?

In America, the pandemic is becoming endemic--something we just live with because it isn't something we can defeat. In China, the endemic autocracy of the Chinese Communist Party--that wasn't so horrible to live under when you consider the power of the CCP and the massive increase in the standard of living--is becoming a pandemic of ordering people about in its efforts to order about the Xi Jinping Covid-19 Flu.

Is China's GDP overstated by 60%? Big if true. Their defense spending is a much bigger burden, for example. Tip to Instapundit. I've been a skeptic of China's rise to surpass America as many posts show. A decade ago I wondered about the quality of China's growth. Four years ago I mentioned the light metric. And three years ago I noted skepticism of official stats. But I never would have guessed by this much. The power of fictional compound interest, eh? Still, despite impressive growth, China's economy isn't nearly as big as we thought regardless of the actual figure.

I give the Biden administration credit: "Israel and Lebanon signed a U.S.-mediated maritime border agreement Thursday, representing a rare example of economic cooperation between the two countries that are still technically at war with one another. " Now try to bring Lebanon into the Abraham Accords. Which requires defeating Iran and their Hezbollah ally. 

I hadn't read this before: Russia's "forced resettlement of Ukrainians into the[Russian Far East.]" it's horrible, of course. But not alien to autocrats of empires. I've long assumed that if China conquers Taiwan it will deport Taiwanese to Xinjiang and Tibet provinces to act as forced settlers to swamp the locals and make room for Han colonists on Taiwan to cement control there.

Science! run amok.

Worry: "Top government officials in Iran have been chartering up to 'five flights a day' for their families as they seek 'British passports' to get them out of the country, Express.co.uk reported on Thursday." Hmmm.

The long road to the so far unnamed MPF light tank. I suggest calling it the FBOH.

LOL

 

It isn't ominous at all that Xi Jinping and his top leadership made a pilgrimage to the shrine of Mao's old base of operations.

It's funny. The West has moved on from hopes that regime change in Moscow would end war with Russian retreat and moved to battlefield victory as route out. Putin has failed on battlefield and has moved his hopes to regime change in Washington.

Russia will end the deal to export Ukrainian grain. But does Ukraine need permission at this point? Could the ships travel through NATO territorial waters?

Ukraine learns how to shoot down Iran's drones.

Regardless of the reason, it is terrible that Speaker Pelosi's husband was attacked by a man using a hammer. Before knowing the facts, Democrats are blaming the lunatic with apparent markers of being a leftist on Republicans--notwithstanding the media emphasis on only some of his beliefs. Let's get the facts. Question: the attacker apparently took the hammer from Pelosi's husband. Why would a man determined to attack the speaker break in without a weapon, counting on getting a weapon inside the house?

That seems like a scummy thing to do

Actual Resistance to tyrants: "Weeks of protest in Iran entered a more violent phase on Sunday as students defied an ultimatum by the Revolutionary Guards and were met with tear gas, beatings and gunfire from riot police and militia, social media videos showed." We'll see if the regime armed elements continue to be unified and willing to kill for the regime; and if the leadership remains united to kill their way through this crisis.