The only way it makes sense to essentially pave the way for Iran to get nuclear weapons at the end of the pause that refreshes that this deal establishes for 10-15 years is if we think that we are buying time to allow for conditions that will make that future capability irrelevant.
Does the Obama administration think that we will have sufficient missile defenses here and in Europe and the Middle East (whether in Israel or deployed in our allies' territory or aboard ships deployed overseas) to stop Iran's nuclear arsenal? Or at least be good enough to make Iran doubt that they can get their missiles through the shield?
If so, that just guarantees an arms race that will cost us more since adding missiles and warheads is cheaper for Iran than adding anti-missile systems able to cope with massive numbers of launches.
And would we consider it a triumph if that race results in Iran having to expend 50 missiles to nuke Paris with the one warhead that gets through?
Does the Obama administration think that a deal will actually result in a "reset" with Iran that will result from 10-15 years of Iranian nutball mullahs realizing over that time that America isn't so Satan-like after all?
Does the president plan to spend his post-presidency in Tehran, bringing his soothing balms of hope and change within effective range of said nutball mullah rulers on a daily basis to speed along that change in attitude?
Or does the president think that we can engineer regime change in Iran in that time by more direct means?
But if we end sanctions, won't Iran's rulers have the means to bribe enough supporters to keep control of Iran as they have so far?
Those are the only ways I can imagine that make Iran's possession of nuclear weapons irrelevant. Either Iran can't effectively use them or they won't want to use them.
And that seems like a risky scheme if ever there was one.
I think the simplest explanation for the deal is that our people really are awful at this sort of thing and the deal is as bad as it appears to be:
You set out to prevent proliferation and you trigger it. You set out to prevent an Iranian nuclear capability and you legitimize it. You set out to constrain the world’s greatest exporter of terror threatening every one of our allies in the Middle East and you’re on the verge of making it the region’s economic and military hegemon.
Of course, from President Obama's and Secretary Kerry's point of view, the deal is perfect even if any of this can work out. These guys get to write the check, collect the Nobel Peace Prize, and count on a future president to make sure our account has the funds to cover the check when the bill comes due.
