Thursday, November 05, 2009

Looking Beyond Taiwan

The Taiwanese say that China is now building an aircraft carrier:

The head of Taiwan's National Security Bureau told parliament construction of the carrier had begun, Lin Yu-fang, a legislator of the ruling Kuomintang party, told AFP.

However, the security chief, Tsai Teh-sheng said the carrier's construction "has not been smooth" and that the Chinese navy may struggle to put it into service by 2012 unless it makes a manufacturing breakthrough soon.


The Taiwanese should not fixate on 2012 as the earliest point of danger. China simply does not need aircraft carriers to invade Taiwan. China has plenty of planes that can reach Taiwan from bases in China.

And while putting a PLAN aircraft carrier battle group northeast of Taiwan would surely compel the US Navy to approach Taiwan more carefully rather than charging in with a single carrier of our own, China's submarines, and land-based ballistic and cruise missiles that can target our ships will already slow us down.

Remember, China doesn't need to defeat us to win a war over Taiwan. China just needs to slow us down while China beats Taiwan.

And with the cork in the bottle that Taiwan represents for Chinese naval power projection safely in China's hands, China will want that carrier to send to south Asian, Middle Eastern, and African waters to project China's power and protect their interests. Mind you, I bet the Chinese would sacrifice a carrier battle group (heck, our Navy would probably fixate on sinking the PLAN carrier, forgetting the real mission is to save Taiwan) to slow us down long enough for China to conquer Taiwan, but I doubt they need to send a carrier on a Viking funeral mission.

So I'd worry that China would like the sea lanes cleared before 2012. Taiwan has wasted much of the last decade by letting China race ahead in military capabilities. Does Taiwan even have the time to correct this error?