It is clear that we need to remain in 2012 and after. Iraq has fine light infantry for internal security but still lacks the ability to support that force logistically and with fire support, air support, intelligence, recon, and air defense. Nor do they yet have a conventional army able to defend against foreign invasion.
Plus our presence helps keep rivalries confined to the political process when the urge to reach for guns to settle disputes the traditional way is still strong. Entrenching rule of law is key to making Iraq a strategic win.
The Iraqis worry about their future without us to stabilize Iraq, too, depsite past noises about wanting us out. If we are too eager to leave, Iraqis wonder if we value the outcome of Iraqi politics:
A number of Iraqis expressed dismay that after the August 19 and October 25 bombings, administration statements emphasized that the United States was still intent on pulling out rather than making clear America's willingness to stand with Iraq against our common foes. They are equally dismayed to see the United States reaching out to Iran, which most Iraqis, even most Shiites, see as their country's foremost foe.
"We need you to take Iraqi security responsibility seriously, but we are confused. We are not sure what you want," Mithal al-Alusi, a secular, pro-Western member of parliament, told me. "It was clear in Bush's time, but now we don't know the American position."
It would be a tragedy if through sheer neglect the United States were to throw away the gains that it has given billions of dollars and thousands of lives to achieve. That doesn't have to happen. There are still more than two years before the American military pullout is complete. Given how far Iraq has come since 2007--the year of the surge--it is obvious that a lot can change in that time. Let us hope that one thing that changes is that the administration starts paying more attention to this important country at the center of the Middle East and doing more to safeguard its future as part of a larger American security architecture in the region.
When we exited South Vietnam in 1973, South Vietnam stood as an independent country. But we failed to defend what we'd fought to build and so lost it all in 1975.
Very soon--after the next government is formed--we need to initiate talks with the Iraqi government about the role of America in preserving our win in Iraq, keeping the Iranians out, and cultivating rule of law.
