If Blair's now solid lead in the House of Commons slips, he could face a struggle to control those in his party who are disillusioned with him, not only over the war but over economic policies they consider too conservative. Senior members might then challenge him for leadership.
This highlights a problem we have with rulers of authoritarian states. Putin in Russia, for example. We tend to like the guy we think we know rather than trust the potential loonies waiting to replace "our guy." We know Blair. We like Blair. We remain thankful for his support in the war on terror.
Yet his party is horrible. Is it really wise to bank on personalities? Should we hope for Blair to win just because of gratitude over his support in Iraq? We managed to look beyond Iraq when we decided what to do in Ukraine. The easiest thing to do in the world in Ukraine would have been to support the corrupt government that would have kept troops in Iraq. But we supported the party best for us in the long run.
Look, I'm hardly comparing Britain to a thug state or anything like that. But Blair will eventually lose control of his party--a party of seething anti-Americanism, socialism, and pro-EU sentiment that will one day break loose of Blair's moderating influence. And don't feel this is a betrayal of Tony Blair. Blair helped us invade Iraq because he--rightly--believed joing America was the right thing to do. Blair did not join us as a favor. And we can't separate Blair from Labor. Blair is no president. He relies on his party to remain prime minister. His party can dump him anytime and put some loon in power more to the liking of the wackos. We don't like that.
So I hope for a Conservative Party victory. I don't know much about Howard and know that his party is not perfect. But I'd rather bank on the party in the long run rather than the person in the short run. When Blair wins, I won't gnash my teeth--I do have gratitude for his support--but I won't celebrate, either. Blair's Labor Party is atrocious and we won't like the post-Blair Labor-run Britain.
Cheers, eh?
