Yet here we are all alone at the top, still.
I have expressed my skepticism that China will overtake us any time soon. Indeed, I've noted that China has impressive annual growth rates from the simple expedient of taking farmers and putting them in cities. Turning even the most productive rural peasant into even the least productive factory worker will increase GDP very nicely. One day this avenue will run out as it did in the Soviet Union. Plus, as an aging society, China may get old before it gets rich. Or the aging despots of Peking could be driven out of their palaces by an old fashioned revolt of the people.
Those predicting our doom have always had statistics to bolster them. And every time we've left our rivals behind. Why? Samuelson explains:
On being overtaken, history teaches another lesson. America's economic strengths lie in qualities that are hard to distill into simple statistics or trends. We've maintained beliefs and practices that compensate for our weaknesses, including: ambitiousness; openness to change (even unpleasant change); competition; hard work, and a willingness to take and reward risks. If we lose this magic combination, it won't be China's fault.
Our future lies in our own hands. The next century will be ours unless we try to emulate the policies of failure. Thank goodness we didn't copy central planning, or industrial policy, or a massive welfare state when people here insisted we needed to emulate past competitors who failed to beat us. Keep on doing what we've been doing.
