Tuesday, May 08, 2018

Behold the Nuance of the Glorious Deal!

No, we do not have access to all Iranian sites to check them for banned nuclear programs.

Again, as I did two years ago, just look at the deal's provisions that made inspections--and so formal Iranian compliance--a farce if Iran wishes to evade the deal:

Requests for access pursuant to provisions of this JCPOA will be made in good faith, with due observance of the sovereign rights of Iran, and kept to the minimum necessary to effectively implement the verification responsibilities under this JCPOA. In line with normal international safeguards practice, such requests will not be aimed at interfering with Iranian military or other national security activities, but will be exclusively for resolving concerns regarding fulfilment of the JCPOA commitments and Iran's other non-proliferation and safeguards obligations.

If Iran truly didn't want nukes, perhaps this level of trust could work.

But the Israeli revelations of what we knew--but which Kerry and his idiot minions ignored to transform Iran into a responsible and successful regional power (that Iran lied about not having a nuclear weapons program)--means we have zero trust in the Iranians.

The IAEA pretends to inspect and Iran is fine with that. Are we?

Or are you going to claim that Iran got better in the nearly 2 years since I wrote that post--quoting the deal--about the inspection flaws?

Because apparently the Israelis discovered undeclared nuclear program sites:

Officials [from Israel] said they planned to share much of the data they had harvested from the secret archive with the International Atomic Energy Agency — including data on some previously unknown nuclear sites in Iran.

Israel’s intention appears to be to force the organization, a United Nations agency, to demand that the Iranians allow inspections of those sites, even though some of them may have been closed or dismantled years ago. Since Iran considers many of these military sites, the Israelis, and some American officials, expect the Iranians to balk at the demand — inciting another crisis for the deal.

I'm sure Iran will green light IAEA inspections in an expediting fashion, right?

I basically don't care if the Iranians eliminate inspections if we pull out of the deal. Remember, under the Iran nuclear deal that Iran accepted inspections at sites that the Iranians agreed to. So how worried were the Iranians that the inspections would provide evidence that the Iranians had a nuclear weapons program that the Iranians denied having?

As far as I'm concerned--as I said often before the deal--the deal involved the Iranians pretending they didn't have a nuclear weapons program; and the West pretending to believe them. At least the pretending is over with the deal cancelled. And then we can seriously work the problem without pretending we had a solution.

I remain astounded at how badly the Iranians and Russians took advantage of Kerry in this deal.

Good Lord, the Democrats who recently became full-blooded Russian haters had a leader who thanked Russia for helping get the sacred Iran deal. Maybe, just maybe, Russia didn't have America's best interests at heart.

UPDATE: President Trump ended the nuclear deal.

But with 90-day and 180-day "wind down" periods, is the deal dead or just given a date to die if Iran doesn't agree to changes?


Israel has instructed local authorities in the Israeli-held Golan Heights to "unlock and ready (bomb) shelters" after identifying what the military described on Tuesday as "irregular activity of Iranian forces in Syria".

But is this a reaction to the end of the deal and worries about Iran or is this in anticipation of an offensive against Hezbollah?

UPDATE: Iranian forces in Syria fired rockets into Israel on Wednesday; and Israel is mobilizing some reservists.

If the Israelis move, I expect their ground forces to ignore Syria and hit Hezbollah hard in Lebanon, despite Iranian attempts to draw Israel into Syria.