The article says that a combination of moving the American embassy to Jerusalem, Hamas civilian assaults on the border, the beginning of Ramadan, the likely end of the Iran deal, and a desire to strike back at Israel for attacking Iranian assets in Syria may mean that Iran will initiate a war.
With bonus motive that Israel's successful espionage mission to pull mounds of nuclear weapons program data out of Iran that bolsters the American withdrawal from the Iran deal.
Add to this the likely end of the "Southern Front" Syrian rebels that will clear the path for Iran to approach the Israeli border in Syria. Under these circumstances the rebels would likely stand down if Iran moves through the area to hit Israel.
So Iran could strike at Israel in some form very soon.
Would that prompt a general war between Israel and Iran?
I don't know about that. I think Israel-Iran maneuvering is setting the parameters of the geographic scope of the war.
And I think, as I have for a long time, that Israel intends to smash up Hezbollah in Lebanon with essentially a giant ground raid deep into Lebanon.
If Iran strikes at Israel with all those nutball-provoking events clustering in time in an irresistable motive to hit the Jews, that will be all the excuse Israel needs to move north.
Would Iran risk a general war to save Hezbollah when they have a greater platform in Syria to fall back on that has Russia to deter too much Israeli action? When the Iranians have Hamas to pick up the slack in time as a direct rocket threat to Israel? And when Iran may believe they can throw Hezbollah under the bus with Hezbollah having no choice but to crawl back to Iran to rebuild in Lebanon after being crushed by Israel?
UPDATE: When I read something like this, I wonder if it is a dot in the picture I've drawn in my mind:
Benjamin Netanyahu will meet Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday in Moscow to discuss regional issues, the Israeli prime minister said in a statement on Saturday.
Does this mean Netanyahu is having a meeting to make sure Russia knows Israel won't threaten Russian vital interests in Syria? Does this mean that Israel is finalizing plans by making sure Russia stands aside as long as Israel restricts their military actions to Lebanon?
Or is it just a meeting one would have periodically with a major power?
As I've written, blogging is often a mix of what I think will happen and what I think should happen if I had the power to make the decisions.
UPDATE: And the Israelis well know that Russians are not eager for war. So it should be totally possible for Israel to reassure Russia to remain neutral over Lebanon.
UPDATE: Yes, a war between Israel and Lebanon would only benefit Hezbollah.
I was dumbfounded that Israel in 2006 bombed Lebanese infrastructure to pressure Lebanon to control Hezbollah, when the existence of Hezbollah within Lebanon demonstrates that the Lebanese government doesn't have the power to control Hezbollah.
And I'm horrified that I sometimes read things that assert Israel thinks that the problem in 2006 wasn't the premise but the inability to destroy from the air more accurately and faster to pressure Lebanon.
My hope is that this is misdirection by the Israelis and that when a conflict begins, it will be a ground war between Israel and Hezbollah, avoiding attacking anybody but Hezbollah, where everybody but Hezbollah benefits.
If Hezbollah is torn up by Israel's focused ground raid, maybe a weak Lebanese government and a weak UN force in place will be strong enough to control southern Lebanon despite Hezbollah.
UPDATE: The section on Russia in this Strategypage post says that Russia wants to limit Israeli attacks on Iranian targets in Syria.
It sounds to me like there is room for agreement between Russia and Israel if Israel hammers Hezbollah in Lebanon but leaves the Iranians alone if the Iranians throw Hezbollah under the bus to retain their position in Syria.
