Friday, October 02, 2015

Oh ... So Close

Instapundit notes that there seems to be a Russian-Iranian Shia crescent forming.

Funny enough, back in 2004 I thought that victory in Iraq and over the thug-regime in Iran could lead to the same thing for us. Which could have been of use if Saudi Arabia didn't manage to help us confront jihadis and succumbed to a jihadi revolt.

So my predictive powers are (again) good but off in a vitally important detail.

Remember, Arab Shias aren't a default constituency of Iran unless we abandon them. Once it looked like they could be a supportive bloc in the wake of our victory in Iraq.

UPDATE: We are trying to build up Lebanon's national military:

Congress over the past year has approved more than $1 billion in proposed arms sales for the Lebanese armed forces, including attack aircraft and helicopters. And lawmakers on Sept. 29 cemented Beirut's status as a key ally with the release of a compromise annual defense bill that puts Lebanon on equal footing with longtime partner Jordan.

But Lebanon is fragile with a powerful Hezbollah state-within-a-state that challenges state authority. Our effort will fail miserably if a Russian/Iranian-led Shia crescent dominates the region.

UPDATE: A late addition. If Russia succeeds in building a Shia crescent from Lebanon to Iran, in the process threatening Yemen, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia, doesn't this trigger the Carter Doctrine?