A computerised scenario carried out by Taiwan's military showed that in a war with China the island's capital Taipei would be in enemy hands in just three days, a report said Wednesday. ...
Under the scenario, assuming war in 2011, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) launched intensive air raids on Taiwan before sending in ground troops from sea and air, Next Magazine reported.
The war game found that Chinese troops could march into Taipei on the third day of hostilities, seizing control of Taiwan's top military command and the presidential office, it said, quoting unnamed sources.
Uh oh. That's far worse than any scenario I've contemplated. But it does indicate that contrary to many assumptions that the Chinese would land on southern beaches, China would air drop on or near the capital and land in the north. As I've written, I'd expect the Chinese to go right at Taipei and right for the ports rather than do a traditional over-the-beach invasion, which would be limited by a small traditional amphibious warfare fleet in any case.
But not to worry.
Taiwan's defence ministry dismissed the report.
I've been working on a back-of-the-envelope paper simulation of an invasion. It is getting more complicated as I try to factor in the various elements of an invasion. I should just start running it and improvise as I go.
I suspect losing in three days is way too pessimistic. The whole point of reorganizing Taiwan's army into brigades is to make them more mobile so they can react to a landing. Would it really be that bad?
And I can see reasons for Taiwan to worst case the scenario even though there is a risk of demoralizing the troops with such a dire prediction.
Still, even if the Taiwanese are wrong about the speed, they could be right about the result even if it takes longer for China to reach and seize Taipei. If Taiwan can't drive the invaders back and lets them secure bridgeheads, the game is over even if the question of timing is not settled.
