Thursday, August 12, 2010

Assume a Strategy

I know I mocked the idea that Taiwan should go low tech and adopt the Hezbollah strategy of inflicting casualties on China to hold off China.

But I should be fair. Let me look at how Taiwan could adopt the Hezbollah strategy of using rockets and missiles--updated for precision and aided by UAVs--to strike the Chinese, and light infantry holding out against Chinese attacks to inflict so many casualties on China that China won't attack Taiwan.

The actual Hezbollah strategy in 2006 inflicted about 160 deaths on Israel--military and civilian.

China believes that a successful invasion of Taiwan would result in 21,000 Chinese dead. As of 2004, that was an unacceptable price for China's rulers. And that is a price Taiwan would inflict on China with their current strategy.

So, if the idea is to deter China with casualties, which strategy--Hezbollah's or Taiwan's--inflicts more casualties on the Chinese?

On it's own terms, I judge the Hezbollah strategy for Taiwan to be an epic fail of strategerizing.

Here is an interesting article detailing Taiwan's efforts to avoid going to a low-tech strategy by default.