Monday, November 02, 2009

Classic Russian Behavior

Russia practiced nuking and overrunning their western neighbor, Poland, back in September (on the 70th anniversary of the Nazi-Soviet division of Poland, recall).

And as was the Soviet tradition when they planned to invade NATO during the Cold War (and Russian claim over their Georgian invasion last year), the Russian plan was billed as a counter-attack after being attacked:

The manoeuvres are thought to have been held in September and involved about 13,000 Russian and Belarusian troops.

Poland, which has strained relations with both countries, was cast as the "potential aggressor".

The documents state the exercises, code-named "West", were officially classified as "defensive" but many of the operations appeared to have an offensive nature.

The Russian air force practised using weapons from its nuclear arsenal, while in the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad, which neighbours Poland, Red Army forces stormed a "Polish" beach and attacked a gas pipeline.

The operation also involved the simulated suppression of an uprising by a national minority in Belarus – the country has a significant Polish population which has a strained relationship with authoritarian government of Belarus.


While bizarre in that there should be no way that Russia would use nukes on a member of NATO given the threat of retaliation, we really should plan to move forces into Poland in an emergency just in case.

Still, was the Russian operation really about Poland? Call me suspicious, but I think it is fairly safe for Russia to practice against "NATO" knowing NATO won't react by arming up.

As I thought the last time I commented on a big Russian exercise to repel a NATO invasion, doesn't it make far more sense for the Russians to be thinking of China?

Come on! Might not Russia want to suppress Chinese immigrants in Russia's Far East and might not Russia need nuclear weapons to equalize China' ability to put more troops into the fight than Russia?

But I'm the suspicious type, I suppose. Can't help it.