Raul doesn't appear to trust Hugo and may well fear that an aggressive and nutty Hugo could get Cuba dragged into a war with America:
A years is the best that, those who believe Fidel Castro is terminally ill, will give the Cuban dictator. But even those analysts who think he may recover, believe he will never return to power. His brother Raul has a firm grip on the government apparatus, and has forged an alliance with elements in the Communist Party and Armed Forces, that are suspicious of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez' regional ambitions. It was Fidel who was so [fond] of Chavez. Raul Castro saw that Chavez was an unstable and unpredictable fellow who could be trouble in the long run. The two Castro brothers have long operated by agreeing to disagree on many issues. But with Fidel sick, and Raul in the drivers seat, that arrangement may be changing.
This will be an intersting development to watch. The Axis of El Vil could break down as a cautious Raul takes control of a faltering Cuba long past its youthful glory days of African expeditionary forces. Hugo, in turn, will increasingly see Cuba as an obstacle to his glory. The Cubans, Hugo may think, have abandoned their revolutionary heritage and it is up to Hugo to save the revolution from the Cubans unworthy of claiming leadership.
For insights, we might want to study the China-Soviet Union relationship as the Chinese viewed the increasingly cautious Soviets as too ready to deal with America rather than spread communism by confronting America.
I still think that Hugo may want some type of crisis to allow him to seize the leadership role of Latin American revolutionary zeal as I note in my post linked above:
So if I was in charge of the Netherlands, given past Chavez sabre rattling, I'd reinforce the garrisons of the Dutch West Indies (Aruba, Bonaire, and Curaçao). And ask America to send an expeditionary strike group to the region for a little joint exercise while Castro is in the hospital.
This contingency may explain why the Netherlands will become only the third country to operate Tomahawk cruise missiles. The Dutch defense "expert" who doesn't understand why they might need such weapons has his judgment clouded by his oppostion to cooperating with America in the Long War. The Netherlands faces other threats.
