Friday, April 28, 2006

Scrap of Paper

The never terribly convincing proposition that we could negotiate Iran out of their Jew-and Infidel-Killing nuclear program is falling fast. Not the least from the fact that the Iranians just won't pretend to comply long enough to lull the West Europeans. The IAEA has concluded that Iran is hiding something:

The eight-page report, obtained by The Associated Press, said that after more than three years of an IAEA investigation, "the existing gaps in knowledge continue to be a matter of concern."

"Any progress in that regard requires full transparency and active cooperation by Iran," said the report, written by IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei.

The finding set the stage for a showdown in the U.N. Security Council, which is expected to meet next week and start a process that could result in punitive measures against the Islamic republic.

But Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said no Security Council resolution could make Iran give up its nuclear program.

"The Iranian nation won't give a damn about such useless resolutions," Ahmadinejad told thousands of people Friday in Khorramdareh in northwestern Iran.

And of course, even West Europeans are concluding that nothing short of promising to kill Jews and Americans for Tehran will convince the mullahs to give up nukes:

Rice told the NATO meeting Thursday that the credibility of the Security Council would be jeopardized if it failed to take action in the face of Iran's failure to comply with demands to halt uranium enrichment, which can produce fuel for a reactor or fissile material for a bomb.

Iran says its nuclear ambitions are entirely peaceful, but the U.S. and its European allies suspect that the Islamic republic is trying to develop atomic weapons.

Russia and China — which have veto power in the Council — are resisting calls by the United States, France and Britain for moves that could lead to sanctions on the Islamic republic if it fails to comply.

Asked if Russia would consider halting arms sales to Iran or suspending its help build a nuclear power plant there, Lavrov said that "there exist absolutely no bans concerning the delivery of conventional weapons or of peaceful nuclear equipment."

Diplomats said there was wide support for Rice's tough line among NATO allies at a closed ministerial dinner Thursday night, although no decisions on possible sanctions were taken. European diplomats said Rice reassured allies that the United States was seeking a diplomatic, rather than a military solution to the problem.

"The importance of the diplomatic process and the diplomatic procedures was underlined," said NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer.

So what do we know?

1. Iran is pursuing nuclear technology.

2. The mullahs make no secret of their wish to kill Jews and Americans.

3. The UN says that Iran is in violation of its obligations on nuclear matters.

4. Our allies are coming around to seeing Iran as a threat and are willing to let the UN unleash the big finger wag at the mullahs.

5. Iran says that the UN's opinion is perhaps fascinating but irrelevant to what Iran will do.

6. And finally, either Russia or China will stop the UNSC from issuing the formal finger wag anyway.

So when the farce of negotiations gets past the Security Council resolution that will be vetoed and which Iran considers worthless, will the Europeans (even the French, allowing us to pass that 'international test' so beloved by some) back and even participate in military action (perhaps soon) against Iran's nuclear and military capabilities?

When the Iranians can't even bring themselves to pretend like they might accept some bribe to pretend to halt nuclear work, can the Europeans really avoid a beating with the reality stick?