I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Give in to the Dark Side and subscribe. Hell, share links! I continue posting here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of
2022. I'm also occasionally posting short data dump items on my Substack "Notes" section.
And a second assassination attempt on Trump. No word on when the "national conversation" on inciting and justifying violence commences.
Emotional support hotline: "Despite the fighting in Ukraine and the substantial support Ukraine received from the United States, the Russians want to remain in touch. The Americans are often asked if they are involved in secret Ukrainian operations against Russia and the response is usually a shrug or a denial."
I don't think Ukraine's Kursk incursion has restored maneuver to this battlefield. Maneuver never went away. But Ukraine lacks the resources to exploit the penetration and lacks a significant objective within reach to capture. It's a nice ground-level Doolittle Raid (or Trenton and Princeton, if you prefer).
At best you could say the LPD is an affordable alternative to expensive full-deck amphibious warfare ships--for projecting ground forces abroad. Super carriers are a different question altogether.
Iran represses women. To be fair, the theocracy repress everyone. Tip to Instapundit.
FONOPs ares nice: "Germany sailed two warships through the Taiwan Strait on Friday in its
first transit of the disputed waters in more than two decades, as Berlin
seeks to increase its defense engagement in the Asia-Pacific region." But can its navy dominate the Baltic Sea?
Troop rotation: "Soldiers with the 101st Airborne Division are deploying to the Middle
East and 3rd Infantry Division troops are headed to Europe, Army officials announced Friday." Is it significant that the 101st's helicopter equipped aviation brigade is replacing an infantry brigade? Could sink small boats ...
Remembering the end of the caliphate. That was good. Islam "tolerated" Christians and Jews as second-class (at best!) subjects who knew their place. That's aside from African slaves. Go ahead and argue North America, Europe, or Asia should be controlled by a single authority and treat minorities similarly.
Russia informs Abkhazia that it should absolutely know its place and act accordingly.
Don't tell me that casualties are only a Ukrainian problem: "In response to the problematic situation, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin recently introduced new decrees aimed at encouraging citizens to enlist in the military." In the 1980s, everyone thought smaller Iraq would break. Jihad-fueled Iran broke.
But right now its decimated: "Russia is poised to begin a long-term military reconstitution program designed to restore losses from its full-scale invasion of Ukraine and to potentially expand the force beyond 2022 levels." The shape of reconstitution is unknown.
I'm just happy to retreat without drama: "The withdrawal of U.S. troops from Niger is complete, an American official said Monday." But hey, it's Niger's right to go it alone. Good luck with that.
I never assume stealth is permanent. But is this true? Or operationally significant, if true? "Chinese researchers claim that by using the radiation emitted by SpaceX's Starlink constellation, they can detect enemy stealth fighter jets."
Potemkin Expansion? "Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday ordered the country’s military to increase its number of troops by 180,000 to a total of 1.5 million, as Moscow’s military action in Ukraine drags on for more than 2 ½ years." I have my doubts about the truthfulness of this announcement.
Right now it is focused on illegal fishing--not land grabs: "The United States, Australia, India and Japan are planning joint coast guard and maritime police patrols amid growing Chinese activity in the region[.]"
Germany de-industrializes. Tip to Instapundit. Odd that Germany decided to belatedly implement the Morganthau Plan
Israel's quasi-war with Iran: "Iran is disturbed and unnerved by the continuing assassinations of Iran backed Hamas and Hezbollah leaders. This is in addition to the numerous key scientists, engineers and managers associated with the Iranian effort to build a nuclear bomb."
From the "Well, Duh" files: If China disrupts Taiwan's communications, it could paralyze Taiwan's defense effort. Will Taiwan's allies restore communications in a war? And prepare ahead of time to do it?
"Modern" wars are wars of attrition? No. Countries that can replace losses can wage wars of attrition. Territorial depth relative to the enemy's capabilities affects that issue. But sure, short wars are mostly an unattainable ideal. I didn't think Russia could attain one.
Possible? Maybe. Likely? LOL! "Can a sixth-generation fighter jet cost less than previous generations of fighter jets? U.S. Air Force officials say it’s possible."
Having experienced ... issues ... with Air Force close air support commitment, the Army wants its own satellite substitutes if Space Force follows suit: "In a bid to revolutionize unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) operations, the US Army has patented a new technology that can keep its drones in the air forever."
I've been very concerned: "Recent Chinese maritime activity around the Second Thomas Shoal marks a potentially new and more aggressive stage in China’s campaign to extend control over the South China Sea." Escalating to direct, open combat with China isn't the best solution, eh?
Is the shipping industry ready for containerized missile warfare? Yes. Q-Ships? The article highlights the Mark 70 Mod 1 Payload Delivery System. I've been on the concept for at least fifteen years. And recently noted the significance of the Mk70 PDS. It might even be a stepping stone to friggin' air defense lasers.
The Ukrainians have added manpower but need artillery ammo and armored vehicles--especially tanks they can't produce--to make effective units rather than cannon fodder light infantry formations.
The Philippine Coast Guard is grossly outmatched by the China Coast Guard (and its compliant and large naval militia). I noted the looming defeat.
Georgia is sliding closer to Russia. We prevented Russia from taking Georgia. We can't prevent Georgians from giving their country to Russia. But we can help pro-West Georgians resist.
Why so many Ukrainians resist a "land for peace" deal. Because it's their land and because they wouldn't get peace with Russia, is my guess.
No high-tech on the high altitude India-China border: "the ongoing border disputes remain unresolved. There has been some violence, and deaths. Conventional weapons were not used. Both sides relied on soldiers armed with clubs, rocks and righteous fists. Both sides want to avoid a shooting war."
Interesting: "This year Ukraine is on track to produce three million drones. These consist of armed and unarmed models of many different designs." Ukraine even exports some to earn money.
China's rulers are wrecking their economy to maintain control. That breaks the "deal" with China's subjects of prosperity for submission. That leaves force to maintain control. Will force mostly be applied to China's subjects or China's neighbors?
Expand the fleet? Keep existing ships ready? Hold your horses! "The Navy doesn’t have enough skilled sailors to keep its warships combat-ready, according to the latest in a series of government reports that broadly question the fleet’s readiness at a time of growing military tension between the U.S. and China."
The Navy's old home is putting out the welcome mat: "The U.S. will support Manila’s plan to build a new naval pier at a Philippine naval base in Subic Bay."
Opportunity: "The EU may be prepping to lend Ukraine up to $45 billion — with or without the US" It's an EU wet dream to see America walk away from NATO and leave the field to Brussels.
I'm worried: "The list of American security agencies stained by bureaucratic incompetence, dreadful leadership and outright political corruption just keeps getting longer." By nature, I want to trust our security leaders. Needlessly losing Afghanistan without objecting was the final hit. Earn my trust back.
Sh*t got real: "The Philippines would expect US intervention should China take the BRP Sierra Madre warship." You remember that line in the sea, Sierra Madre.
When China starts talking about the good old days when Okinawa was a vassal of China, don't insult my intelligence by telling me the talk is really about loosening Japan's commitment to Taiwan rather than an early declaration of a future claim. Those dashes don't get added to maps on their own, you know.
Russia's military expansion. I'll ask again if it is real or a Potemkin expansion? If Russia can frighten us into retreat with paper expansion orders made public, they would get away with a tremendous bluff.
Ah, the game of thrones goes on in the proto-imperial European Union! The useless--except to its royalty--EU: "From the outset, the EEC/EU was a luxurious parasite within the protection of NATO[.]" They want to erase the prefix, of course. But is it "doomed"? Die! With festering boils, just die.
Paging Mr. Hezbollah: "Israel reportedly executed the attack by planting one-to-two ounces of explosive material and remote triggers inside a batch of Taiwanese-made pagers en route to Lebanon." Yet you probably scoffed at my concern China might do something like that to our aircraft carriers.
Is commercial ship traffic in the Red Sea despite Houthi attacks proof the Houthi are ineffective? Food for thought. But how much traffic is diverted, increasing costs? And whose ships are using the Suez Canal? Are only some countries unaffected? But Iran's supplies to the Houthi are being partially interdicted.
China has been pushing Japan and Japan is getting tired of it: "The helicopter destroyer JS Kaga, which resembles a small carrier, is scheduled Oct. 5 to Nov. 18 for flight tests with F-35B Lightning II multirole jets off San Diego, the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force announced Sept. 10."
Copying Europe to our peril. It's not about eating pets. It's a national security issue. Legal immigration of screened people in needed numbers? Great! An open border for all, including criminals and terrorists in some unknown but dangerous number given the volume? Are we that stupid or self-destructive?
Yet Britain prioritizes arresting people for allegedly mean social media posts: "as of 2020, the UK’s MI5 has over 40,000 suspects on a terror watchlist, the vast majority of which are related to extremist Islamist terrorism."
So we need to outsource our Red Sea problem to India's navy? Their navy certainly isn't squeamish about opening fire.
It's funny. When America helps a good faction abroad, critics say we counter-productively promote a "rally around the flag" effect against America. When Iran does it here, that effect apparently doesn't apply. But I stand partially corrected on that unrequited love thing.
Recalling the Second Battle of Fallujah twenty years ago. A second battle was required because we believed we could have "tame" jihadis secure the city for us. Don't forget in case we risk losing Iraq again.
Ursula von der Leyen may not know much about job competence, but she sure knows power in the EU game of thrones: "The power grab was complete."
Earth is getting a new moon, 2024 PT5, for a month (tip to Instapundit):
Pakistan: "Islamic terrorists and various rebel groups in Pakistan killed about a thousand people in 2023. Half the victims were security personnel while the rest were civilian bystanders. The usual political chaos in Pakistan is expected to abate somewhat after national elections are held in February 2024." Ah, "chaos".
Please red line your pucker factor accordingly.
Maybe train to fight instead: "At Fort Liberty, thousands of soldiers who were trained on the Army’s antiterrorism policy saw slides that labeled several legitimate nonprofits as terrorist organizations – a blunder that went on for seven years [before publicity prompted the Army to take action to stop that.]"
I thought the plan was to go to all missiles: "The U.S. Air Force’s top special operations officer says AC-130J Ghostrider gunships will continue being armed with 105mm howitzers for the time being, though this could still change in future."
Usual suspects are complaining that Israel might start a war with Hezbollah. Yet nobody mentions the United Nations force--UNIFAIL--that is "intended" to prevent Hezbollah from packing rockets into southern Lebanon. And God help us, some want the same formula for Gaza.
Yeah, questions about aid to Ukraine probably aren't as polarizing as social media-based analysis implies--which is true for all issues that over-emphasize social media as a proxy for American opinion. There are divisions. But America should be the arsenal of democracy. Our democracy might need an arsenal, too.
The EU's immigration pact is falling apart as its bad effects reverberate. Of note: "Much to the chagrin of dedicated bureaucrats in Brussels, the EU is less like a federal state and more like a federation of states." That's why they want to remove the prefix of their quasi-imperial entity.
Strategery: "After Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Russia was subject to international economic sanctions. This had some unfortunate side effects for other nations, like India, which has long been a major customer for Russian weapons. That trading relationship is another casualty of the Ukraine War."
We'll see if this survives Afghan tribal greed and opportunity: "This month construction of the TAPI (Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India) natural gas pipeline finally began." Interesting that India gains influence in Central Asia and that Pakistan helps.
Yin and yang: The Virginia SSGN program is over-budget; and the Navy is going big on expanding sub construction capabilities.
Thank you Israel. But we should have relentlessly pursued him and killed him decades ago: "Hezbollah commander involved in US embassy and Marine Corps bombings is killed in targeted Israeli strike[.]" But Hezbollah got the Iran friends and family discount.
No longer subliminal aggression: "While previously, Beijing sought to maintain plausible deniability when using its maritime militia to coerce southeast Asian nations, it is now adopting a more direct and aggressive strategy, that can escalate quickly using warships more directly in confrontations."
Ukraine's strategic warfare against Russian logistics continues: "Ukrainian forces conducted another successful drone strike against Russian missile and ammunition storage facilities as well as a mobile radar system in Russia overnight on September 20 to 21."
So very conflicted: "In the African country of Mali, Russian Wagner Group mercenaries went looking for some low-risk, high-paying work during July 2024. What they got was a massacre that left all the Wagner Group mercs murdered by an Islamic terrorist group called JNIM." Mali: Somalia without an ocean view.
Well, for Ukraine this is better than overt help: "When Ukrainians examine the debris left by detonated Russian bombs and
missiles, they often find Chinese components. [China denies it supplies Russia,] but there is no way for the Ukrainians to prove the
Chinese are lying." China expects Russian gratitude.
