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Sunday, November 12, 2023

Weekend Data Dump

Drones are just one part of the lethal mix: "The UK Ministry of Defense (MoD) assessed that Russian forces have likely lost around 200 armored vehicles around Avdiivka, likely due to the effectiveness of Ukrainian modern hand-held anti-armor weapons, mines, UAV-dropped munitions, and precision artillery systems." Drones aren't an aerial silver bullet. And other drones will be a major reason they lose their current reputation.

The cyber front in the Last Hamas War. Plus a lot on the GPS vs. countermeasures race.

Nukes: "The Russian military on Sunday reported a successful test launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile designed to carry nuclear warheads from a new nuclear submarine." Russia has been working on the Bulava missile and the Borei-class SSBN for a long time. I don't mind if the paranoid Russians have a survivable nuclear deterrent. They'll need that against China.

One thing that has puzzled me is that Russia contracted their front so much after the initial invasion. The front really starts south of Kharkiv and goes to the Black Sea on the Kherson front. Russia isn't trying to invade from Kharkiv north all the way around the the Belarus border. If Russian manpower is so limitless, why wouldn't Russia try to stretch the Ukrainian army? 

Army's 2-6 football team decisively upset ranked 8-0 Air Force. That was glorious. I kept flipping to that game to make sure I wasn't dreaming.

I'm not going to change my mind on freedom of speech for pro-Hamas advocates despite their repugnant views supporting evil. Even chanting "from the river to the sea" in support of Palestinians--while clearly a call created to support killing or (charitably) expelling Jews from that expanse of territory--is tolerable under our freedoms as long as it remains speech. Opponents should use speech to point out the hate that is the foundation of the slogan. I draw the line when it crosses into riots, violence, and vandalism. Perhaps law enforcement could focus on that. And now for something completely different:

 

France may sell 36 Rafale fighters to India's navy.

Israel cooperated with Jordan which air dropped medical supplies to a Jordan-sponsored hospital in Gaza. Interesting.

Tenth Mountain Division soldiers that fought in the 1993 Battle of Mogadishu ("Black Hawk Down") will finally be recognized for their combat actions.

You think you hate and distrust our mainstream media enough. You do not.

Israel using their Arrow system to shoot down a Houthi (Iranian-supplied) missile while it was in space before it plunged at high speed into Israel no doubt told Iran that if it launched ballistic missiles at Israel, Israel would shoot them down. And then retaliate.

I don't think we need to convert Chinese spending into any type of equivalent to American spending to analyze the force structure their spending has built. I'm far more worried about this: "the PLAN fields over 80,000 sea mines of increasing quality and various methods of deployment while American minelaying and mine countermeasure projects struggle."

Nukes: "The US Air Force plans to buy as many as 1,000 nuclear-capable air launched cruise missile intended to give commanders a wider range of deterrence options by introducing a stand-off, air-fired nuclear weapons capability."

Starshield will make my two old Signal Corps MOS skills that set up ground-based communications networks obsolete, won't it? 

So the pro-Hamas side claims Israel has had Gaza under siege in an open-air prison for the purpose of committing genocide against the Palestinians who live there. Let's see, Gaza population in 2000, five years before Israel completely withdrew: 1.13 million. Population in 2021? 2.11 million. Huh.

CENTCOM said an Ohio-class submarine is in the region. No word on whether it is a nuclear-armed sub or one of the conventional cruise missile/special forces conversions.

The German political "mainstream" has spent decades condemning and demonizing the mainstream public concern about admitting so many immigrants unable or unwilling to assimilate into German culture. After being widely condemned for being virtually Nazis for their normal and valid concern, that public is not too shockingly turning to parties that mainstream parties also call virtually Nazis but which are willing to validate and address the public's concern: "Germany’s political mainstream has struggled to find an answer to the AfD, dismissing the party as fear-mongers and betting that a recovery from a cycle of recession and meagre growth will restore the public’s faith. But there are signs that the frustrations run deeper than that."

Oh FFS, are we going to blow Iraq a second time by not paying attention?  "The Iraqi state is undergoing recentralization by Shia political elites, against the spirit and letter of the country’s 2005 Constitution that envisioned a federative union. This is seen as a threat by major Kurdish and Sunni Arab groups who seek to counter such a trajectory."

Meanwhile in the Philippine Sea: "Dubbed a 'multiple large deck event' by the Navy, the exercise included the aircraft carriers USS Ronald Reagan and USS Carl Vinson, the Japanese helicopter carrier JS Hyuga, approximately 150 aircraft and more than 10,000 sailors in a demonstration of air and naval power in the Indo-Pacific."

About that German (and Western) immigrant problem (via Instapundit): "Don’t forget, those warning of the problem were called names, some had their pre-Elon twitter accounts suspended or removed, people lost jobs, had institutions and friends disassociate themselves from them, etc. History and logic were on our side, but it did not matter." Just because the mainstream left now recognizes the problem doesn't mean they will have good solutions. They'll probably just update their pamphlet that "urges migrants not to marry children or stone women for adultery". Heck, the EU will get involved to exploit the crisis--with solving the problem incidental--for more political power. America's problem is merely smaller at the moment. And for a nation built on shared ideals, screening for harmful ideals and having zero tolerance for harmful ideals brought here are a possible solution for promoting assimilation.

As we contemplate how Israel is being accused of trying to wipe out the Palestinians, let's again recall how many Moslems Arab states have killed. That's a huge job. So let's just focus on how Arab governments have even used poison gas on Moslems. Let's see, that would be Egypt in its war in North Yemen in the 1960s; Iraq in its wars against its own Kurds and Iran late in the 20th century; and Syria against its own people in the last decade. People forget the first one, so I link for that.

Tar. Feathers. Or at least serious prison time.

I missed this a year ago, but it is why I see the EU as a threat to America: "If you are an American who lived on the European Continent, specifically Western Europe, you’re very familiar with an exceptionally sharp strain of anti-Americanism that resides in a significant percentage of their ruling elite – an adult version of the middle school mean girls. Though present in all nations to one degree to another, it is especially acute in Germany and France for slightly different reasons but are all working towards the same goal; degrade American influence in Europe." A threat to America and a threat to Europeans.

Another thing: "Perhaps we expect too much from France, Germany, and their auxiliaries. There are equally strong friends of the USA in these countries that we should do more to encourage and raise their profile." Yes, "Europe" is not our friend. But we have friends in Europe. I'm almost giddy. I so rarely see authors who agree with me about the EU threat. 

As we watch pro-Hamas rallies/riots that include feminist, Jewish, LGBTQUERTY, and all the other intersectional friends of the so-called oppressed, let's remember that the jihadis would kill every one of them if they had the chance. Even the raging Moslem women who dare to expose their face to the sun and bump up against unrelated men out in public.

Mr. Carless is careless with the truth. If we live in a simulation, he's totally an NPC.

Why don't these wastes of oxygen ever attack a piece of modern "art" to make a point? I mean, other than the obvious reason nobody would waste money "repairing" that dreck. They are barbarians trying to destroy civilization. Treat them as such. Tip to The Morning Briefing.

Israel says to come see the violence inherent in the system. Real systemic hate.

Democrats do whatever they accuse Republicans of doing: foreign collusion edition. Biden is wealthy. If your wealth is based on getting 10% of every transaction, how many people are conducting business in Joe Biden's name?

American aid to Ukraine is worthwhile--not a proxy war; and Europe spends a lot of money, too. Of note, European aid commitments to Ukraine are twice America's, although American military aid dwarfs European military aid. Although I dispute that defeating Russia in Ukraine will deter China from invading Taiwan as much as the war itself will teach China lessons on how to wage war better than those hairy steppe barbarians--like showing China that conquering as much territory as Russia has is good enough for victory.

Good: "The UK and Poland signed a £4 billion ($4.9 billion) deal to deliver a next-generation air-defense system to Warsaw as Europe steps up military efforts on NATO’s eastern flank to fend off Russian aggression." Defend the skies as NATO forces flow into and through Poland in case Russia gets Russia-like.

What can the Navy do to fix itself? "In order to prioritize one thing – warfighting – it is necessary to diminish the importance of conflicting requirements." There are many substitutes for victory these days. Is Navy leadership able to focus on warfighting? Because that matters.

British intelligence says Russian troops are suffering exposed to bad weather: "The soldiers’ discomfort, according to the report, is likely due to Russia’s inability to enforce basic field administration among its troops." Unless that translates into deserting or surrendering, whatever. 

Will the lumbering gunships really be useful in conventional warfare as bomb trucks rather than being most useful for aerial direct-fire close air support in irregular warfare? "U.S. Air Force Special Operations Command confirmed to Defense News it is considering removing this howitzer-sized weapon, used to carry out punishing strikes on ground targets, from the aircraft as early as 2026." 

Strategery: "Russia formally withdrew from a major post-Cold War security treaty on Tuesday that placed limits on key categories of conventional military equipment and weaponry in Europe." The U.S. (and of course, NATO) will suspend observance of the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) treaty. Putin should want detente or even peace with NATO so Russia's European territory can be a safe rear area with their fronts in the Far East and Central Asia to resist China

Excellent point: "Even the best tank is useless if it can't reach the battlefield. The Army Science Board cited a Center for Army Analysis war game that 'demonstrated armor's value in Taiwan's defense, but struggles with deployment and sustainment precluded US armor's arrival in sufficient numbers before China achieved a fait accompli.'" Which has implications for my suggestions in Military Review for Taiwan and the broader Asian theater.

He begged Congress not to subpoena him to testify because he's already been probed enough: "The head of the Pentagon office responsible for investigating UFOs is stepping down from his post in December, he said in an exclusive interview Tuesday."

So far Israel is following the rules of war.

Ah, the US Army is leasing its two Iron Dome batteries it purchased back to Israel for 11 months, or more. Or maybe Israel will buy them back.

When you collect statistics, you have to define what you count. So counting "attacks" against US forces in Iraq and Syria is a gray area. For example, is it an attack if the attackers miss, try but are preempted, hit their target, or hit and inflict casualties? Now you know why I annoyingly say to check the Definitions Section.

America has been using Predator drones for most of the strike missions in Syria over the last several months.

They make them harder for base security to stop threats: "The Air Force’s vast fields of underground nuclear missile silos are rarely disturbed by more than the occasional wandering cow or floating spy balloon. But the service is now asking Congress to help with another unexpected danger: towering wind turbines, which are growing in number and size and are edging closer to the sites each year."

Persistent talk in the West about ceasefires in both the Winter War of 2022 and the Last Hamas War display a basic failure to understand the situation. The calls for ceasefires assume that Russia and Hamas want peace. They don't. They want victory. Too many Westerners think that a ceasefire leads to peace. But our enemies will only agree to ceasefires if they think ceasefires lead to their victory. That is, it will be a period of quiet to reload and to distract us. The West would get better results by thinking about how to win these wars by defeating the enemy. Victory first. Peace after.

I assume Western purchases of Turkish weapons and America's sale of F-16s to Turkey are also on hold: "Turkey once more delayed its promised approval of Sweden joining NATO. The delay this time was because Turkey was not consulted by the United States during the Hamas-Israel conflict." But Turkey seems to being more careful with Israel notwithstanding Erdogan's support for Hamas

This is more for unexploded ordnance and booby traps left behind by the Russians: " Last year the United States gave Ukraine $89 million for demining." The job will get much bigger when Russia retreats from its fortified belts on the current front line. Also, "While landmines were outlawed in 1999, most of the nations that rushed to sign the Ottawa Convention either didn't have landmines or didn't have any reason to use them." It's like eunuchs banning sex.

Somebody isn't under siege as Hamas wrongly claims about Gaza: "The terror group’s three top leaders alone are worth a staggering $11 billion between them and enjoy a life of luxury in the sanctuary of the emirate of Qatar." Why don't we seize their assets and use them to pay for eventual humanitarian aid for Gazans?

I appreciate details, but isn't this already widely known? I can't be one of the few who noticed, can I? "A conservative group has released a provocative new report on ProPublica which refers to the research and news group as the "Attack Arm" of the Democratic Party." Tip to Instapundit, where Green notes ProPublica is an attack arm. I guess as the mainstream media stopped pretending to be neutral news providers, the Democrats needed a new entity that could try to pretend to be neutral analysts for a while.

Yeah, just as I haven't assumed trends of ever-increasing population will continue forever, I don't assume Western population declines (and I include Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea in the West, as always) is permanent. We've fallen and risen before in the cradle of Europe and its offshoots. And there are written indicators of declines in other parts of the world.

Making carrier aircraft better ship killers: "The US Navy has conducted the initial fielding of the StormBreaker 'smart' air-to-surface weapon using F/A-18E and F/A-18F Super Hornet multirole combat aircraft."

Loitering, searching, and pouncing: "Using uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs), such as the MQ-9B Sea Guardian, in anti-submarine roles will significantly alter how ASW is conducted. The shift will be significant, as submarines have been notoriously difficult to find and target."

Use 'em or lose 'em. Or send them to Ukraine where they are still good enough. 

Alert: "The global war on terror, it seems, is far from over. Although U.S. military strategy shifted emphasis from countering Islamic extremists to great-power rivalry in 2018, the war between Hamas and Israel has created a new spawning ground for terrorists intent on attacking America." Yeah, it's quiet here. Too quiet.

Civilian deaths and proportionality in war: "Accusations that a religious building, school, medical facility or ambulance has been bombed in most cases are made without knowledge of exactly what the building or vehicle was being used for. Protected civilian objects, for example, lose that protection when they are deemed to be legitimate military targets." Apparently, the US military has a guideline for "non-civilian cutoff values (NCVs)" for acceptable civilian casualties. That doesn't define international law. It is our attempt to follow it. And more, as I've outlined. His conclusion is spot on, including about America, I think: "I'm hoping the White House focus on combating 'Islamophobia' is for the purpose of buying time for Israel to smash Hamas. Lord knows the Easily Excitable need calming." Repeated calls for Israel to follow the rules of war are part of that. 

Again, supporting Ukraine is not an American proxy war against Russia. If so, you'd have to say that providing military aid to Britain when under assault by Nazi Germany was an American proxy war. We are helping a country resist aggression. And helping the victim is also in our interests. You'd think this would be celebrated as a policy both morally and strategically justified.

I think the author is right about the PLAN: "China has been under substantial economic stress. I do not think it has the naval strength that others believe it does, but it is still a major power." But I don't know how much less good it is than it appears. And I don't know that it isn't good enough to achieve victories close to China.

My pucker factor is just fine at the moment: "I have heard from two people I trust highly that Serbia is preparing for war. Serbia and Kosovo fought a bloody war in 1998-99 in which the U.S. and NATO sided with Kosovo and conducted a bombing campaign against Serbia. I hope these sources are wrong, but I think this will happen and spread beyond the Balkans." Thank you for asking. Still, "Most rumored wars never happen."

Don't say Saudi Arabia isn't doing its part to buy Israel time to defeat Hamas: "Saudi Arabia said, Tuesday, it will host two summits for Arab and Islamic leaders to discuss the conflict in the Gaza Strip, Anadolu Agency reports."

I've mentioned that we have to be careful with our warships in the eastern Mediterranean because of that threat: "Powerful Russian anti-ship missiles acquired by Hezbollah give it the means to deliver on its leader's veiled threat against U.S. warships and underline the grave risks of any regional war, sources familiar with the group's arsenal say." We might not deliver the message we think we are sending. Be careful out there. 

Hmmm: "It was necessary to 'change the entire equation and not just have a clash,' Khalil al-Hayya, a member of Hamas’ top leadership body, told The New York Times in Doha. 'We succeeded in putting the Palestinian issue back on the table, and now no one in the region is experiencing calm.'" Maybe. But if Hamas is saying this perhaps they are hiding that they have gotten a bigger non-calm reaction than they anticipated. Maybe as Westerners look for rational answers to why Hamas attacked, Hamas public relations people told their leaders that they could hardly just admit that they simply want to slaughter Jews. Also, if there is any truth to the explanation,  was Hamas trying to unsettle the Israelis, Arab states, or Iran? And what do they expect unsettled people to do to help them?

I had a bunch of hits from Yahoo Japan that quickly looked at a bunch of seemingly random TDR pages, paired with a phone and computer view. Like it is checking for viewability. Wonder what this is.

I forgot to mention Victims of Communism Memorial Day. But I remember that every day.

The U.S. launched another tiny attack on Iran's proxies in Syria. This is unlikely to persuade Iran to stop using these locals to attack American forces. Although maybe CENTCOM is gearing up for a big strike package across eastern Syria and in Yemen following a future Iranian attack on our troops.

AP and Reuters photo-journalists were actually Hamas public relations publicists during the October 7th terror invasion. Nobody is shocked, right? You really don't distrust and hate the news media enough. Tip to Instapundit.

The drone was over international waters off the coast of Yemen: "A U.S. drone was shot down by Yemen’s Houthi rebels on Wednesday, according to the Iran-backed group’s military arm and a senior U.S. military official."

It was a tough job: "Hundreds more airmen who orchestrated Operation Allies Refuge, the massive evacuation of civilians from Afghanistan as U.S. forces withdrew in 2021, will receive medals honoring those efforts, the Air Force announced Wednesday." But it just obscures that they participated in the longest and largest technically proficient retreat under fire since Napoleon retreated from Moscow.

News I could have used two weeks ago: "The Coast Guard has established a new base on Guam, the first of four installations scheduled to open in the coming months." The China Coast Guard and its naval militia are the tip of the spear for China's subliminal aggression against the Philippines., which China claims is a matter of mean America picking on China's innocent maritime campers.

In case I didn't mention this reason to start plucking chickens and heating the thick petroleum product: "The Department of Homeland Security was censoring speech before the 2020 election, new emails released by the House Judiciary Committee show." It is tiresome to be accused of threatening the Constitution when Democrats do it all the time. Tip to Instapundit.

The well-dressed face of Hamas in America. Progressives only try to suppress conservatives who exercise freedom of speech. Tip to Instapundit.

Expanding Western--especially American--155mm artillery ammunition production. Also, "Russia’s production of artillery ammunition continues but it is not enough to match what Ukraine is receiving from NATO nations. Ukraine has also revived its artillery munitions production of 152mm shells [and other ammunition types]." Early on I mentioned that Russia's much larger economy didn't prove Russia was dominant because the West added its economic weight to the Ukrainian side. Also, I said don't assume Russia's population edge means it can lose troops at that same ratio without suffering worse morale effects than the Ukrainians.

Does that mean the Navy might replace our Ohio-class SSGNs, after replacing our SSBNs? "After delivering the dozen nuclear ballistic missile submarines to meet the U.S. nuclear deterrent, the Navy could keep large diameter hull submarines in production, the service’s director of undersea warfare (N97) said on Wednesday."

I fully agree that America must rebuild its sea mines capability

A plea for the Marines to keep heavy armor and tube artillery. Not every global mission requires the Marines to be ship-killers.

Using the Army as ship-killers in the Pacific. There are bigger options, as I wrote many years ago in Military Review.

I guarantee the UN won't establish an agency just for these refugees and sustain them and their grievances for generations until they ripen into deep, inculcated hatred: "Armenians have been forced to flee the region, grabbing anything they could from their homes as Azerbaijanis entered the area. It is reported that over 100,000 Armenians were forced to relocate after Azerbaijan launched this recent offensive. Now, Armenia is faced with a refugee crisis."

Huh: "Three people have been arrested in connection with operating high-end brothels in Virginia and the Boston area that served an exclusive clientele of elected officials, military officers, government contractors with security clearances and myriad other professionals, according to federal investigators." Another substitute for victory, I guess.

In harm's way: "The challenge to the Navy’s surface fleet came in from the U.S. Pacific Fleet headquarters: deploy six littoral combat ships west of the International Dateline by 2025." They are the most expendable part of the fleet.

Israel needs to keep smashing Hamas despite the imagery: "The brutal reality of this current episode in the war with Hamas is that Palestinians are dying because Hamas attacked Israel and killed without mercy. They chose the softest of targets — the elderly, the disabled, babies, young people attending a peace concert — and then celebrated their depraved acts online." And every time I see a protest in favor of Hamas, whether by foreigners, ANSWER communists, American college students, or American politicians, I lose a little more sympathy for innocent Palestinians sadly caught in the crossfire. Again, the moment the pain of those innocent Palestinians gets too great for Hamas to bear, they can surrender to the Israelis. Tip to Instapundit.

Manilia was perhaps hasty: The Philippines notices that China became more aggressive after the Philippines ejected American forces in 1992.

Taiwan should prioritize defeating "gray zone" threats? Personally, I think the Taiwanese will be better able to resist a Chinese "gray zone" offensive to undermine Taiwan's will to remain free when Taiwan has the ability to kill every invader who makes it to Taiwan.

Oh joy: "The United States and the People's Republic of China are preparing to announce the resumption of military-to-military communications, Axios reported Wednesday." China doesn't learn what we want to teach them. I actually agree with high-level communications channels. What I don't like is giving PLA officers tours of our units and bases, thinking we frighten them with our power.

And now I'm seeing in my statistics package a bunch of hits from what looks like a single phone looking at random old posts, using software to simulate viewing in different countries. Weird.

Canada is pivoting its navy to the Pacific.

Russia created a demand that South Korean weapons manufacturers are stepping up to supply. In 1950 when Task Force Smith was getting smashed up, would anyone have predicted South Korea would one day be an important part of the Arsenal of Democracy? Good thing, too: "The European Union informed member states that the bloc is very unlikely to hit a pledge to provide Ukraine with 1 million rounds of artillery ammunition, complicating Kyiv’s ability to keep pace with Russia’s own production." Let's hold our win in Iraq, okay? Future Americans might one day be astounded by what we achieved.

I have warned about this capability: "Hezbollah has acquired powerful Russian anti-ship missiles from Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad which could be used against US warships off the coast of Israel."

The Russians seem to be trying to buy back helicopter engines: "Russia has approached several countries asking to buy back weapons it sold them, hoping to deploy them in Ukraine, The Wall Street Journal reported."

Meanwhile at Second Thomas Shoal: "The Philippines on Friday condemned China's coast guard for 'unprovoked acts of coercion and dangerous manoeuvres,' including its use of a water cannon against one of its boats in an attempt to disrupt a resupply mission in the South China Sea." Berlin Airlift (East)?

Strengthening India: "The US and India will co-produce Stryker armored vehicles, as the two countries push to counter China’s rising military might in Asia."

Back into space: "The seventh mission of the reusable U.S. Air Force X-37B spaceplane is scheduled to launch Dec. 7 on a SpaceX Falcon Heavy rocket from Kennedy Space Center, Florida." See you back on Earth in five years, I imagine. And maybe "new orbital regimes" for the X-37B means farther from Earth.

Undermining Ukraine to pursue a false peace with Russia is insane. Yeah:

God loves everyone born that way, and we should all be tolerant, but "being born without a uterus, being born with internal testicles — those don’t make me less a woman."

 

Soldiers can bring the war home inside them. Which is why I think fighting under the rules of war as much as possible is more of a benefit for our soldiers who fight in a war than it is for civilians inevitably caught in the crossfire. Mind you, I was a rear echelon Army reservist who was never sent to war (all I can say is that my unit almost went). I don't want anybody to think I'm stealing that kind of personal history.

It's a "dog bites man" story, so don't you dare say you are shocked. Every time I see one of these stories I want to give Israel another week to destroy Hamas in Gaza. I think I'm well into 2025, so far.

The Army is prepared to fight across Pacific islands to battle China's navy. As the Army recalls its World War II experience, let's not forget that even in the water-intensive Pacific that the Army faced corps-level combat early in the war, as I described in this Land Warfare Paper. Don't forget the synergy of dominating your own domain for helping other services win their domains. Multi-domain warfare shouldn't just mean being a Navy auxiliary.

The Bundeswehr states its vision: "'We must be the backbone of deterrence and collective defense in Europe. Our own population, as well as our partners in Europe, North America and the world, expect us to face up to this responsibility,' the new defense guidelines said." Outstanding! It took Putin to wield the clue bat, but it had a good effect. This will take time given their long slide to cub scout territory.

Ukraine hit two small Russian landing craft. These are important for logistics even without considering amphibious assault potential, and have been equipped with air defense missiles. 

I continue to believe it is a mistake to let either our allies or potential enemies see our leader in person and confirm their own intelligence agencies' fears or hopes.

Our public schools have gone from "grade inflation" to "grade forgery". The public school system has officially become a life support system for Democrat-voting and -donating teachers and administrators, with the students mere disposable props to be processed and spit out. We'd save taxpayer money and get the same educational outcomes if we dismantled the public school system and just gave each student a game console and let them stay at home. Tip to Instapundit.

Putin has a Plan B in Ukraine: "Putin hasn’t given up his plans. He thinks Ukraine’s allies will lose interest." But Plan B might not survive contact with its enemy--the Russian people dying to outlast the West's support for Ukraine: "How much punishment can the Russians take?" So far, enough Russians are marching into the meat grinder. Putin thinks that willingness is a constant. It is not. But I'm not prepared to guess where the breaking point because I thought it would be much lower than Russia has reached already.

Are American liberals finally going to break with the progressives who have taken the Democratic Party down "Hitler Was Right Boulevard"? Can liberals really pretend that MAGA Republicans are the real threat? Sigh. Pretending is probably harder to kill than I hope.

It annoys me that the news says 10,000 Gazans have been killed in the war so far. One, Hamas is claiming that. In the one case we can look at, the hospital bombing by Palestinian jihadis, the claim was that Israel killed 500 when in fact the death toll was 10-50 at the hands of jihadis screwing up a rocket launch aimed at Israeli civilians. Two, since Hamas and their jihadi allies fight in civilian clothes, all of their casualties can be called civilians. And three, Hamas commits war crimes by using civilians as human shields.

You think you distrust and hate our media enough. You don't. Via Instapundit.

I heard on the news that the government had trouble selling new debt and so had to offer even higher interest rates to buyers. Not that our deficit and resulting debt aren't a huge problem. But is this more related to China selling a massive amount of the debt that they hold, which is flooding the market for buying our debt for the moment? But the immediate cause of the lack of interest may not be the underlying cause of an eventual bigger problem. Or maybe the underlying cause finally caught up with us. What do I know?

Hamas wants lots of well-publicized Palestinian deaths. Tip to Instapundit. And now for something completely different:



The Pakistani and Iranian dogs caught the car: "With the withdrawal of American troops and financial support in 2021, the Taliban, now called the IEA (Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan), took it over and had a difficult time running Afghanistan or dealing with Islamic terrorists and local rebel groups. That has sent a growing number of Afghan refugees into Iran. Relations between Iran and the IEA have been tense but, so far, not violent. Pakistan is a different matter, with many groups hostile to Pakistan finding sanctuary in Afghanistan and continuing to make attacks on Pakistan."

Weighing down infantry. I'd say that exo-skeletons will solve the problem but we all know that more equipment and supplies will be added to what the infantry must carry. And then pray the exo-skeleton isn't damaged in combat or just break.

Warning alarms blaring on the Titanic: "Europeans are unwilling to preserve their industrial base and control their borders, leaving the continent increasingly weak and largely defenseless." Politicians will wreck Europe long before climate change can. Meanwhile, Macron maneuvers to rearrange the deck chairs so he gets the best view of the iceberg. But that's no reason for America to let Europe fall into enemy hands.

Perhaps China's nuclear build up is based on fear of America lowering the nuclear threshold over local wars. But how do ICBMs deter much smaller American tactical nukes? America has to consider the first-strike potential of more Chinese ICBMs, because fixed silos are the least survivable of nuclear weapons. Regardless of what we think we see China saying to justify more nukes, I think the best-case scenario is that China wants to deter Russia when China makes its big territorial play.

Some of the Dutch F-35s have been certified to carry American nuclear bombs.

The prototype of the B-21 is now flying. Six are currently in production.

Campus leftists demonstrate their commitment to freedom of shutting up if you disagree with them speech. Kudos to House Republicans who managed to get leftists to demonstrate that point in committee. Tip to Instapundit.

I saw someplace that Ukraine threatens to reply in kind of Russia goes after Ukraine's power grid this winter. I bet that isn't an idle threat.

Collaboration: "French President Emanuel Macron strongly rebuked Israel’s bombing campaign and ground offensive in Gaza on Friday, saying there is 'no justification' for the effort in a BBC interview." Macron thinks Israelis should just surrender, shuffle off to Vichy Israel, and wait for America and Britain to fight and die to liberate them. How much does this threat motivate Macron's rebuke?

China's Potemkin economy is becoming apparent. But don't worry, Xi Jinping can direct the entire country back to prosperity.

Israeli AH-64s use non-line-of-sight Spike missiles with a 25 kilometer range: "Based on past experience, Israel developed tactics that integrated the AH-64s closely with ground units by using its enhanced surveillance capabilities to seek targets at night and in bad weather. This requires more time in the air and that is made possible by carrying one or more RCEFS (Reduced Size Crashworthy External Fuel System) tanks."

California prepares to give its people a CCP Social Credit-style digital colonoscopy to improve their lives: "[Governor Newsom] recently announced the creation of California’s new 'Cradle-to-Career' (C2C) system. According to this official statement, the system will integrate 'over 1 billion data points — providing unprecedented insight and transparency,' ostensibly 'to improve career outcomes for millions of Californians.' C2C’s integration of data, notes the statement, 'will provide the public, researchers and lawmakers unprecedented insight that could improve education and quality of life for millions of Californians.'" No way that power would be mis-used, right? The media constantly warns us that tyranny is descending on America because of conservatives. But it always seems to land where the progressives rule. Tip to Instapundit. And now for something completely different:



Second Thomas Shoal remains a tense flashpoint between China and the Philippines. The Philippines is making sure the world is seeing this subliminal aggression against it. America is in overwatch. The Philippines pledges to continue resupply runs. We need to figure out how to pry this location out of China's imperfect grip before it escalates to navy gray hulls.

Good God, what is going on in Iceland? "The chance of a volcanic eruption in Iceland is rising, posing a threat to a now-evacuated town, experts say." Earthquakes are indicating a serious problem. 

Huh: "A senior Ukrainian military official played a key role in sabotaging the Nord Stream gas pipelines last year, according to an investigation by two international newspapers." Who did he coordinate? And was Zelensky really in the dark? I didn't think it made sense that Ukraine or the West would risk that. Nor did I think it made sense that Russia did it. I tentatively stand corrected. I wonder if Russia was relatively passive because it couldn't be sure it wasn't an accident.