Taking no chances: "More than 5,000 police officers descended on Victoria Park in Hong Kong yesterday and swept up two dozen people holding flowers, candles or placards in memory of the Tiananmen Square massacre."
Well: "China's defense minister defended sailing a warship across the path of an American destroyer and Canadian frigate transiting the Taiwan Strait, telling a gathering of some of the world's top defense officials in Singapore on Sunday that such so-called 'freedom of navigation' patrols are a provocation to China." Let's provide overwatch.
That train pulled out of the station when Russia invaded and bombarded Ukrainian cities: "The Kremlin said on Sunday that any supply of long-range missiles to Kyiv by France and Germany would lead to a further round of 'spiralling tension' in the Ukraine conflict."
The SA-6 joins Ukraine's anti-cruise missile defenses.
How cute, Russia thinks its navy can survive 50 meters from their docks if there is a war: "Russia said on Monday it began holding naval drills in the Baltic Sea, one day after NATO member states kicked off their annual Baltic drills."
That's a 50% increase: "Canada is pledging to step up its military posture in the Indo-Pacific, with its defense minister announcing the nation will annually commit to the region an additional warship." Well, thanks. I guess.
At least it wasn't a Chinese medal.
The Navy's ships and subs are in worse physical condition now. On the bright side, the standard for measuring may be more appropriately tough now.
Good: "The U.S. will support its allies and partners when they defend
themselves against coercion and bullying in the Western Pacific,
Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said in a speech on Saturday." Cats won't stay herded without that reassurance.
The House Republicans won't reauthorize FISA without reforms after FBI abuse against American citizens. Good. Once the FBI could have counted on my support because I had trust that it wouldn't abuse a law meant to stop foreign jihadi terrorists. Stupid me. Tip to Instapundit.
The woke now claim "woke" simply means they care. No doubt:
Woke-infested Western governments hobble relations with developing countries (a.k.a. the Third World) because Western social and global warming advocacy conflicts with local objectives. It's so fun to see leftists with such colonial mindsets trying to impose certain Western values on other countries. Mind you, China is exploiting those countries financially. So China and Russia will likely find their gains short-lived.
The usual suspect: "The U.S. Navy said Monday its sailors and the United Kingdom Royal Navy came to the aid of a ship in the crucial Strait of Hormuz after Iran's Revolutionary Guard 'harassed' it."
Solar power has its own ecological problems today, from ecosystem destruction and mining issues. And of course, part of the "green" side of the ledger benefits from exporting panel environmental problems into the future. Why do Greens hate the planet so much? Tip to Instapundit.
Despite a long history of thinking Trump was just a New York City Democrat, I was ecstatic that Trump defeated the thoroughly corrupt Clinton in 2016. I was eager to have Trump defeat Biden in 2020. And while Trump was screwed by massive propaganda from 2016 to 2020, I don't owe him my support for 2024 to make up for that. If he's the nominee, he will be superior to Biden. But since politicians are for the purpose of getting policies, I'd rather Trump not be the nominee for president. Tip to Instapundit.
Let me just say I'm skeptical of the impartial judgment of someone wearing a "toast" pin. Who the ef owns such a thing?
Wow. Enough time has passed for the Biden administration to be in favor of the Trump-era Abraham Accords.
LOL! "ransport officials in Maryland confirmed a website address printed on hundreds of thousands of Maryland license plates now redirects to a gambling site based in the Philippines." Via Instapundit.
Oh FFS: "Iran’s allies have achieved unprecedented control of Iraq’s parliament, judiciary, and executive branch, and they are rapidly rigging the political system in their favor and looting the state of its resources. Washington’s complacent attitude toward these events is only setting it up for costly involvement later." We're losing Phase IX of the Iraq War. Is this administration eager to lose another war? Welp, Smart Diplomacy® in action.
Exactly! "The current infatuation with RFK Jr. by some on the Right is a complete mystery to me — and it isn’t doing the country any good, either." Deviate from conservatism and you are a RINO. But be less than fully leftist and you are a hero of the right? FFS.
Let's not get too caught up in the notion that China is running rings around the West in Africa: "This trend of [Chinese] overfishing and ever-diminishing returns is being repeated up and down the entire West African coast, where hundreds of thousands of people rely on the sea to stave off hunger and make a living."
The Biden administration continues to try to revive the Iran nuclear deal in some fashion. Well of course it is.
India has worries that neighboring Pakistan will descend into chaos. And China worries its new friend and outpost will descend into chaos because of the "slow-motion trainwreck which took decades to devastate Pakistan economically, politically and militarily." Of course, India's problem would at least be a lovely parting gift for China.
A very bloody weapons and systems evaluation laboratory.
Defending "every inch" of NATO territory will rely on being faster than the Russians: "'Being faster than the Russians to get to a critical place is the only metric that matters for effective deterrence, and we still can’t do that,' said retired U.S. Army Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, a former commander of U.S. Army Europe." I worry when we can do that. In regard to the Baltic front, Russia's tighter embrace of Belarus while it invades Ukraine might be Russia's only victory in this war.
Paying attention to the Baltic front: "NATO has bolstered its presence in northeastern Europe in recent years. It has established battalions in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland and sent more ships and resources to the Baltic Sea, according to the alliance."
Friends: "Indonesia on Monday launched a multilateral naval exercise in its waters, alongside navies from countries including the United States, Britain, China, Japan, Russia and South Korea, amid simmering tensions in the Asia-Pacific region."
No enemies to the left: "Navy leadership should be laser focused on preparing for the coming conflict. They are not. In recent years from Obama’s Presidency to the present, the Navy has gone woke in a big way and is rudderless in preparing for the coming challenges." Indeed. Do read it all.
The Army is in the best shape in decades? Really? If narrowly focused on equipment modernization programs--long-range fires, new combat vehicles, advanced rotorcraft, digital networks, air defense and soldier lethality--sure. And we'll see if programs result in sufficient equipment in the field. But otherwise? I have my doubts. But I hope it is true.
Given Marine efforts to help the Navy in sea control missions, this makes sense: "The Corps plans to integrate a brigadier general in the headquarters staffs of U.S. Sixth Fleet and the U.S. Seventh Fleet." Sixth Fleet? Atlantic Marines aren't being reorganized into Marine Littoral Regiments.
Sure, understand why Russia is trying to defeat Ukraine's army and take Ukrainian territory. But don't get so focused on this that we fail to prevent Russia from defeating Ukraine's army and taking Ukrainian territory. It really didn't matter why Hitler started World War II once he started conquering. And his reasons for fighting changed over time. What was important was defeating his military. So if Russia intended to conquer Ukraine, it isn't much of a Russian defeat if Russia "only" retains what it has taken so far. The next war might finish the job. Or just add a bit more.
More on looming blackouts in America this summer. Apparently the administration is taking coal plants offline much faster than "green" generation capability is added. FFS, people, when you put on your shoes and socks, you don't do it in that order. And yeah, I'm channeling old Mad Magazine for that. Tip to Instapundit.
Huh: "Three months before saboteurs bombed the Nord Stream natural gas pipeline, the Biden administration learned from a close ally that the Ukrainian military had planned a covert attack on the undersea network, using a small team of divers who reported directly to the commander in chief of the Ukrainian armed forces." Nobody is commenting on the report. Not that Ukraine wasn't fully justified if they did carry it out. But I would have bet money on an accident.
The Russians can ef off. Their invasion was the only escalation of note. All else is justified reaction: "Russian officials warned that supplying Ukraine with U.S.-made F-16 fighter jets would escalate the war as it stretches into its 15th month." If the Russians are so concerned about escalation they can turn around and leave Ukraine.
Britain would like a post-Brexit trade deal with America. Britain is our closest allies. They should get it.
The claim: "A key lesson from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is the value of having
pre-positioned war supplies in Europe and exercising in the region
regularly, the U.S. Transportation Command commander said on Tuesday." Agreed and agreed.
How censorship was subcontracted. But it isn't illegal if private entities do it, they say.
China to Western companies: You will be assimilated and resistance is futile. Tip to Instapundit.
Democrats dumped blue collar workers in favor of social justice warriors. I used to have some respect for Democrats. When they championed blue collar workers, individual rights, and freedom of speech. I may have disagreed with their solutions. But that's different. Anyway, that's long gone. All they have left for me to respect is their sudden and frankly odd resolve to oppose Russia. How long can that last?
Houston, we have a problem (tip to Instapundit). I get it. It's definitely a problem. But the issue isn't how good Ukraine is. The issue is how bad Russia is. Not every victim of aggression can be Ewoks. If we could support Stalin's USSR to fight Nazi Germany we can support Ukraine to keep Russia as far east as possible.
This is a problem: "Iran openly opposes any peace with the West because of Western insistence that Iran first cease its support for violence in Iraq and Syria as well its nuclear-weapons program." But "Western insistence" on those subjects is pretty funny. Not "LOL" funny, of course.
I've long thought this was the major flaw in digging deep to avoid bombs: "Iran has expanded the Natanz facility deeper underground. That does not prevent Natanz from being attacked by several MOPs that destroy the four access tunnels needed to enable personnel and material to get in and out of the underground facility."
Good: "Iran has growing problems with international efforts to disrupt Iranian smuggling efforts. For example, in 2018, the multi-national ECC (Enforcement Coordination Cell) was created. Initial members were the United States, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Britain, France, South Korea, and Japan. The ECC is enforcing the UN sanctions approved at the end of 2017 to curb North Korean smuggling related to items needed for their nuclear and ballistic missile programs." But I worry that Uber Nukes can work around that.
At least Phase IX in Iraq is still being contested: "In addition to many American contractors, Iraq also hosts several thousand American troops. These are part of an effort to reduce growing Iranian influence in Iraq. Arabs see Iran as a major troublemaker in the region. The Turks, Americans and Israelis agree and are all doing something to keep the Iranians out."
Huh: "Iranian influence on the [Yemen] Shia rebels is fading and many rebel factions call for some kind of peace deal and an end to a civil war that the rebels were losing." Well that's progress.
That's going to be especially useful to watch the borders with Russia and Belarus: "Poland has requested four TARS (Tethered Aerostat Radar System) systems from United States."
Thoughts on the Kakhovka dam breach. It seems likely Russia did it. And here's some material on the military need to destroy Roer River dams in a campaign area. As I noted in the last weekly Winter War of 2022 post, there are military reasons for both sides to breach the dam.
China doesn't deserve permanent normal trade relations with America.
Last week I noted Macron's outreach to Eastern Europeans and cautioned them not to fall for his appeal to join the empire. So, yeah: "And, in this symbolic gesture, he is also looking to bridge divergences inside the EU on the way forward for future integration." Integration.
With all eyes on the F-16 option, will Ukraine get Australia's F-18s? Note, too, that another likely source for F-18s is Finland which is getting F-35s. And Canada, for the same reason. Tip to Instapundit.
Does America need a Black Sea strategy to cope with Russia? I don't think so. I think helping Ukraine liberate Crimea is enough of a strategy. Otherwise a Black Sea strategy is a potential distraction from the main Baltic theater.
Defending American extended deterrence credibility. I'm mentioned the problem.
The Fuck-Up Fairy won another term in Turkey.
This author stridently opposed to supplying Ukraine with cluster munitions ignores their great value against massed infantry, trucks in logistics columns or supporting units, and artillery or air defense systems. Any weapons can kill civilians. Let's not refuse to end the war sooner with better Ukrainian weapons and instead practice some unfortunate false compassion.
The U.S. is nearly finished destroying its Cold War-era chemical weapons stockpiles.
Space Force will set up a civilian reserve satellite force.
Florida is making permanent and expanding the Florida State Guard. This is a state defense force separate from state National Guards, which are dual-hatted to the federal government and states. They are intended to replace National Guard units called to federal service to do state security jobs. Not all states have them and they vary from competent to social clubs. The ACLU objection is nonsense.
We wonder if we can limit Chinese military support for Russia's invasion of Ukraine drags on. But we don't consider that China is in effect helping Ukraine's war effort: "The Ukraine War saw a lot of innovations and many of them involved the innovative use of commercial UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles) like the Chinese Mavic quadcopters. Ukrainians also designed and built their own UAVs or heavily modified commercial models like Mavic. Russian soldiers also use Mavic quadcopters when they can get them. Corruption in Russia makes importing Mavic quadcopters difficult." To be fair, Western components make their way into Russian weapons despite sanctions.
When I recently got a new gas furnace, I did think I at least got ahead of the fed-green alliance that wants to "help" me. Tip to Instapundit.
Is China's economy facing long-term stagnation? "So much for the Chinese economic boom. Last year China ended a disastrous zero-Covid policy that had crippled its economy. A rush of growth was widely expected to follow. Instead of booming, five months after the ending of its Covid restrictions, the Chinese economic recovery is sputtering." China is apparently past the Lewis Turning Point.
Interesting: "Leaked US documents show that Russian electronic warfare may be having a negative effect on US-supplied Joint Direct Attack Munitions." This was a worry before the 2003 Iraq War when Iraq got some Russian jammers. Whatever effect they had was swamped by American armor setting the land speed record in the Middle East. Before Russia invaded Ukraine, I expected Russian EW to be effective and was surprised it was not. But maybe it is but is being swamped so far by Russian failures. Of course, given this was apparently part of the Discord Leaks I remain suspicious we simply want the Russians to believe their EW is good.
I'd have fewer problems with Trump being prosecuted for exposing national secrets if he was being moved into the cell next to Hillary Clinton who set up her own server in her bathroom to bypass State Department communications security procedures and equipment. Without that equal treatment we don't have rule of law. We have banana republic shame as the regime punishes a political enemy with selective enforcement of the law. The contrast between how Antifa and BLM rioters were treated and how January 6 rioters are being treated was bad enough. The successful prosecution of Trump will mean selective persecution of any American under our ever-expanding list of often obscure crimes is accepted as standard operating procedure.
I think this was truly a delusional belief: "Yes, it is true that Washington really did like having Britain in the EU — which enough American officials have told me to know it is true — because it meant having an ideological ally at the centre of an important trade bloc." Britain was being infected by the proto-imperial EU far more than Britain was moderating the worst of the EU's autocratic impulses. The EU is a threat to America. And to Europeans.
Is it true that some of Russia's elites doubt Russia can win the war? "The best they can hope for is a 'frozen' conflict or a loss in which Russia isn't humilated, the report said." And if true, how many? And even if many, does it matter if they keep quiet and soldier on?
Via Instapundit, "China and Cuba have reached a secret agreement for China to establish an electronic eavesdropping facility on the island[.]"
Twenty-five nations with 250 aircraft participating: "Germany is preparing to host the biggest air deployment exercise in NATO's history[.]" Sweden and Japan are participating, too.
Taiwan is often condemned for having larger ships when they could use lots of smaller vessels to contest a Chinese invasion fleet in the Taiwan Strait. Sure. But while Taiwan could use those smaller attack boats in the west, off the east coast Taiwan needs the larger vessels if it hopes to defeat a blockade against Chinese ships surrounding the island.
China's trade footprint in Central Asia is challenging Russia's post-Cold War dominance. We'll see if China's flag follows trade.
Huh: "Fellow NATO members will feel the peer pressure applied by the U.S. to make good on greater defense spending when they convene next month in Vilnius, Lithuania[.]" I'm so old I remember when applying pressure on NATO allies to spend more on defense was wrecking trans-Atlantic relations.
Dress for the job you want and not the job you have: "Sweden will allow NATO to base troops on its territory even before it formally joins the defence alliance, the prime minister and defence minister said on Friday."
The U.S. government said reports of a Chinese spy facility in Cuba are not accurate. Which may mean you have to consult the government's Definitions Section to see that it does not define what we'd call a spy base as a "spy base".
Because its NMESIS missiles have a range of only 115 miles, the Marines want more range: "The Navy is developing a new long-range anti-ship missile — dubbed the Maritime Strike Tomahawk — that would allow Marine units based on Japanese islands to sink Chinese ships taking part in an invasion of Taiwan." As I said, when you start to kill ships, kill ships.
If America is revealing--through numerous leaks--it really has a bunch of alien spacecraft, I have to ask just how seriously did President Biden violate the law to make the government break the glass on the "we have aliens" story?
Well that's just crazy talk! "Our Nation Should Focus on Readiness, Not Politics[.]"
The Saudis winked at China and too many Westerners panicked that the Saudis were shacking up with China: "Saudi FM: China cooperation ‘likely to grow,' but US security ties robust[.]" Message received. But the Saudis still want to make their point. If we hadn't suddenly crippled our own energy production we'd be able to shrug this off. I'm not siding with the Saudis. Just noting that Biden started it and made it difficult to back our insults with action that isn't counter-productive. Tips to Instapundit.
I was skeptical of the headline that implied Russian and Chinese attack submarines would surpass American subs. But the study is referring to their non-sub defenses that seek to stop our attack subs. Which is more plausible.
The Russians added anti-USV barriers to their special spy submarine base across from Finland.
Because corruption is diverting or selling food rather than distributing it to those in need: "The United Nations has joined the US in suspending the delivery of aid in Ethiopia, plunging the humanitarian situation in the country into even deeper uncertainty."
One key to Ukraine's armored vehicle losses is whether Ukraine is recovering them to repair or strip them for parts. And if the crews mostly survive to use them again.
Does the government have an actual violation to prosecute Trump? Maybe. Technically. But if Trump broke a law, past presidents couldn't withstand this level of scrutiny. And Hillary! did escape consequences of obvious violations of the law. The selective nature of this bothers me. Since 2015 Democrats have claimed Trump is Orange Hitler, and in 2023 this is what they finally get him on? FFS. The attack "plan" for a president would have been so general that anyone given the objective of the attack plus a map, the latest copy of The Military Balance, and some history and military knowledge could have written it with no access to classified information. Doesn't anyone remember the belated Democratic "plan" for the Iraq War? Tip to Instapundit.
I suspect the intent isn't to register the firearms for "safety" but to create crimes for selective prosecution for political purposes. Tip to Instapundit.
A new American arms package for Ukraine, seemingly emphasizing air defense. Including 105mm and 203mm ammunition. We retired our 203mm artillery long ago. Ukraine had a few 203mm guns in service and more in storage. I guess Ukraine took those guns out of storage.
If a legal immigrant wants to defend America, I'm more than happy to fast-track citizenship.
An inconvenient battle for supreme woke victimhood status. Tip to Instapundit.
By the end of the week, Ukraine was re-entering the information war after ceding the field to Russian claims of defeating the Ukrainians. It does seem as if Ukraine is making some progress. But Russian defenders have not been broken. It may take time to push through the defense lines or to find a weak spot to rapidly roll through the defense lines elsewhere.
I heard a Ukrainian defense advisor say that Russia shifted troops from the Kherson front to Zaporizhia by blowing the Kahkovka dam. Interesting that there are apparently so few reserves that Russia had to do that so quickly. If true, of course. And if the Russians along the Dnieper River are even thinner, that will reduce the risk for the Ukrainians crossing the river once the floods recede and the land dries out.
